ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200237
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015

...DANNY JOGS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 42.7W
ABOUT 1270 MI...2040 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 42.7 West. Danny is
now moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny
still could become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Gustywind]

I see the new convection but my question is for how long.

Dry air being pushed toward the storm from the north. Look to the northwest of the storm where the dry air is. Currently on pace to meet up with Danny.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 200238
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015

Convection associated with Danny has increased in both coverage and
organization during the past several hours. Overall, though, the
storm still looks a little less organized than 24 hours ago. The
various satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the last
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. The cirrus
outflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.

[NDG]

The latest Discussion mentiones the SW shear that I have been talking about to affect Danny as it nears the eastern Caribbean Sea.

After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to
encounter even drier air and southwesterly shear, which should cause
weakening. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous
forecast through 48 hours and then shows slightly lower intensities
thereafter. It should be noted that the ECMWF and Canadian models
forecast Danny to weaken to a tropical wave by 120 hours, which is a
plausible alternative scenario given the forecast environment and
the small size of the cyclone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0238.shtml

[Kingarabian]

The upper anti cyclone it had over it yesterday is almost gone now.

[JonathanBelles]

New Post:
http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/19/tr ... l-in-tact/

[floridasun78]

i dont see weaking look good to me now let see if keep it over night i see nhc keep it at 50mph

[Gustywind]

From Levi of Tropicaltidbits.com

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... trengthen/

Danny struggling but may still strengthen

[ozonepete]

It's still pulsing up and down and clearly it keeps ingesting some dry air but then it seems able to handle it. We see disappearing convection over so many hours and then it comes back as the dry air is mixed out.

What the shear is doing right now over the Windward Islands isn't important. We need to be concerned with what the shear will be as it nears the islands. And the closer we get to the weekend the more we can trust the shear forecasts.

[HurricaneBelle]

New Post:
http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/19/tr ... l-in-tact/

Fine post, but "intact" is one word, not two. The word itself is intact.

(Sorry to post this, but I keep seeing it spelled as two words here and elsewhere, and it drives me up the wall).

[ozonepete]

New Post:
http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/19/tr ... l-in-tact/

Fine post, but "intact" is one word, not two. The word itself is intact.

(Sorry to post this, but I keep seeing it spelled as two words here and elsewhere, and it drives me up the wall).

You shouldn't feel bad about it. We are, and should be, learning more than just science here. And yes, that one drives me crazy too. Don't even know where that comes from.

Good post, Jonathan.

[Hurricaneman]

Its popping strong convection around the center, this may out do the models if trends continue and because of that this might bring it a little farther north later on avoiding the trades which might be bad news in the long run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SeGaBob]

It's looking pretty good as of right now.

[galaxy401]

So what is the mood right now? Are we in the "it looks like it's reorganizing and we should keep an eye on it" phase or the "it's weakening and there is no hope for the storm, what a bust" phase? We seem to bounce between those two whenever Danny has a slight change in organization.

[SeGaBob]

I was never part of that group if you go back through the pages. (page 12) But yes I can see what you're talking about. Probably half the people posting said it wouldn't form and now that it's formed, they don't think it'll get a certain intensity. btw I didn't post anything about it until after it formed. I'm still sticking with what I said back there. Just my two cents

[CaliforniaResident]

So what is the mood right now? Are we in the "it looks like it's reorganizing and we should keep an eye on it" phase or the "it's weakening and there is no hope for the storm, what a bust" phase? We seem to bounce between those two whenever Danny has a slight change in organization.

Whether this thing suddenly balloons from TS to cat 5 overnight with a beeline for a major city OR fizzles out into a remnant low within the next 12 hours with no effect on any land, there's always someone who can say "I was right" in a situation like this with such a wide range between models and even within the same model from run to run. I'm just hoping that if there's a landfall, there's both enough time to prepare and the storm hits in a way that there's minimal damage relative to the storm size(somewhat like Arthur in 2014) rather than having a repeat of Katrina or Andrew or the likes.

[Hammy]

I think Danny missed it's last opportunity to strengthen, which was earlier in the evening. It's now undeniably hitting into the very eastern edge of the southwesterly flow as seen by the cirrus to the west starting to collapse in on it, as well as the shear maps.
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc15/ATL/04L.DANNY/shear/20150819.1800.goes-13.shear.wind.cimss.x.jpg
This probably has maybe a day or two left to maintain it's current intensity, and that's probably generous. Euro pretty much nailed this one and I don't see it lasting beyond Saturday at this point.

[FireRat]

I feel it's like ebb and flow, a pulsating of strengthening and then pause-weakening before strengthening again cycle, that these storms go through in their early stages, barring any major hindrances like strong shear and overbearingly dry air. Danny is in a so-so marginal environment, which allows it to still exist, so it may still be too early to write him off IMO.

I guess time will tell what will really happen with this storm. Hopefully it is a best case scenario for the islands (beneficial rains, no damage).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CourierPR]

At this hour Danny seems to be building some new convection and doesn't appear to be dying as a few seem to think.

[Hammy]

At this hour Danny seems to be building some new convection and doesn't appear to be dying as a few seem to think.

I retract my statement about weakening, this appears to be an eye forming, and now makes me wonder if this is stronger than the satellite classifications.
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc15/ATL/04L.DANNY/amsr2/color/2degreeticks/20150820.0425.gcomw1.x.colorpct_89h_89v.04LDANNY.45kts-1000mb-121N-432W.76pc.jpg

Unfortunately due to the small size, this could end up being a hurricane and we'll never know as it will have weakened well before the first flight.

[AJC3]

Despite the paucity of convection, Danny maintains a small, tightly wound core. Still, it's a tiny system and as such will be very susceptible to intrusions of dry air in the short term, and a combination of dry air plus shear down the road.