ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

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AJC3
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#581 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:10 am

Hmmm....

One of the other pro mets on here pointed this out to me. The data suggests a decent swath of 30-35 m/s winds with a couple spots of 35-40 m/s. This seems erroneous as all the previous images from that channel show the same high bias. I wonder is this M/I channel is prone to large errors of magnitude. Either that or the data may actually be in knots and the scale is off. Puzzling indeed...

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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#582 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:46 am

Image
Could be forming an eye based on satellite if it doesn't turn out to be dry air.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#583 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 20, 2015 3:51 am

AJC3 wrote:Despite the paucity of convection, Danny maintains a small, tightly wound core. Still, it's a tiny system and as such will be very susceptible to intrusions of dry air in the short term, and a combination of dry air plus shear down the road.

Image


shear and dry air a perfect combination for intensification... :roll:
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#584 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:15 am

Wow there's an obvious warm spot starting to show up on IR in the middle of that tiny CDO that's consolidated overnight. Amazing.

edit: Hammy beat me to it. :)
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#585 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:37 am

First vis image of the day.. He is definitely a tiny fellow.
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Last edited by Nederlander on Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#586 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:43 am

Slightly larger image from NASA GHCC. :-)

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#587 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:43 am

Can Danny pull a Hilda?

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#588 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:46 am

Unfortunately, Dvorak struggles with small systems as we saw with Hilda.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#589 Postby Nederlander » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:46 am

AJC3 wrote:Slightly larger image from NASA GHCC. :-)



Thanks AJC3! My iPhone was not cooperating..
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#590 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:56 am

Danny is holding its own this morning. The cyclone has maintained convection within its inner core overnight, and actually looks very good with impressive convection around its inner core. Now we will see how Danny fares going forth. I will say that small tropical cyclones like Danny can be unpredictable, moreso than the average tropical cyclones. The small size makes them a bit more vulnerable to shear and dry air and that will be the two huge challenges for Danny down the road.

Danny's best chances for survival is to traverse north of the Caribbean. Right now it is a really tough call as to whether the cyclone will move into Eastern Caribbean, trek directly over the Islands, or miss them just to the north. Right now, take a dart and throw it.
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#591 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Aug 20, 2015 4:59 am

Eye continues to clear out. He's one of the smallest Atlantic storms that I can remember.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#592 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:16 am

Looks like he held together well overnight:
Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#593 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:18 am

Woah look at that! Tiny pinhole with Danny.
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#594 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:18 am

Still a tight pressure gradient with better CDO than yesterday morning.
Kind of strange the latest GFS run loses Danny near Puerto Rico.

The TUTT off NC is still stationary and the Caribbean low has been rolling west allowing the subtropical ridge to push west.

There is still the usual southern shear coming off SA but that is less hostile further north near and north of PR.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#595 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:19 am

What else is new with this basin lol. south Florida thunderstorm
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#596 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:44 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200834
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY IN NO HURRY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 43.7W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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#597 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Aug 20, 2015 5:57 am

Wasn't this supposed to be a 2 by now? It isn't even a 1 yet.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#598 Postby abajan » Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:07 am

Image
One could easily think from this shot that Danny's a hurricane. Truly, looks can be deceiving.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#599 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:09 am

abajan wrote:Image
One could easily think from this shot that Danny's a hurricane. Truly, looks can be deceiving.


Actually looks may not be deceiving. Personally I think it's stronger then sat. estimates are indicating as a result of it's small size.
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#600 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 6:15 am


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY AT 20/0900 UTC IS NEAR 12.2N
43.7W...OR 1040 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING
WESTWARD...OR 280 DEGREES...09 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN A DISTANCE OF 150 NM OF
THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
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