ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Area near Bermuda.

AL, 97, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 305N, 690W, 20, 1014, DB

A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing an
area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast through southwest
of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to
form within this trough over the western Atlantic during the next
day or two, and environmental conditions should support some
subsequent tropical or subtropical development over the weekend
while this disturbance moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[TheStormExpert]

[northjaxpro]

Interesting feature I have been following all this week. Good move by NHC to designate this area as an invest given its proximity to Bermuda.

[TheProfessor]

Someone mentioned in another thread that 97L could affect Danny's Path if 97L hangs around long enough, could 97L possibly interact with Danny and become a U.S threat IF that scenario were to occur?

[northjaxpro]

Latest satellite imagery is showing that convection is gradually increasing with 97L and that the system is slowly beginning to organize just to the south of Bermuda. I discussed in the other thread prior to this being upgraded to 97L how this system could possibly ingluence Hurricane Danny down the road. Should 97L move north ad forecasted currently, this may enable the mid level ridge to build back a bit stronger behind 97L. This would also influence Danny to take a more westerly track in time should all this I explainef materializes. We will see.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing an
area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast through southwest
of Bermuda. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to
form within this trough over the western Atlantic during the next
day or two, and environmental conditions should support some
subsequent tropical or subtropical development over the weekend
while the disturbance moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Guidance



18z Intensity Guidance

[cycloneye]

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure has developed a couple
hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This low is interacting with an
upper-level low and is producing an area of showers and
thunderstorms which extends to the east and south of Bermuda.
Environmental conditions could support some tropical or subtropical
development while this system moves slowly northward over the
western Atlantic Ocean through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[TheStormExpert]

[lilybeth]

Up to 60%. Most interesting and lively week we've had in the Atlantic in a long while.

[TheStormExpert]

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure is located a couple
of hundred miles south of Bermuda. This system is interacting with
an upper-level low and is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms mainly to the east of the surface low. Environmental
conditions could support some tropical or subtropical development
while this system moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic
Ocean through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A broad non-tropical area of low pressure is located a couple
of hundred miles south of Bermuda. This system is interacting with
an upper-level low and is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms mainly to the east of the surface low. Environmental
conditions could support some tropical or subtropical development
while this system moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic
Ocean through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[northjaxpro]

The Low pressure area is being initialized at 1014 mb just south /southwest of Bermuda. It is very weak currently and the system is too entangled with an upper level Low
it is interacting with to its north. I am seeing this system taking a much longer time to spin up right now. Also, I am beginning to wonder if 97L does not organize as NHC is expecting and meanders for the next few days, this may have implications to Danny. An organizing 97L was thought to slowly move north and eventually get picked up by the westerlies. However, if this trough /97L lingers through into early next week, that may keep a bit of a weakness around that may erode the western edge of the mid-level ridge currently steering Danny. Just something to think about.in the next few days.

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=34&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=yellow

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 20/50.

1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure is located a couple
of hundred miles south of Bermuda. This system is interacting with
an upper-level low and is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms mainly to the east of the surface low. Environmental
conditions could support some tropical or subtropical development
while this system moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic
Ocean through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[northjaxpro]

Awaiting the new TWO from NHC regarding 97L. The Low was analyzed at near 29 N 64W and the convection is still displaced east of the where the actual Low is located. I was not surprised to see NHC go slightly down in their percentage for development earlier this afternoon to 50%. As I have stated in earlier posts, this system, if it attempts to organize over this weekend, will be slow to evolve. Actually, the trough which has 97L entangled with currently is already influencing Hurricane Danny because the mid level ridge steering Danny has been eroded on its western edge , pulling Danny on its current west-northwest motion. The big question is will 97L organize enough and pull to the north to get caught by the westerlies, or will this trough axis over the Western Atlantic linger around into early next week? If the latter occurs, the weakness may still be around as whatever is left of Danny (if any vorticity remains of it) could find a path into it at that time. Still days out regarding.this and lots can still happen between now and then.

[cycloneye]

Down to 40%.

The interaction of a broad non-tropical area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda and an
upper-level low is producing an elongated area of showers and
thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for tropical or subtropical
development of this system through early next week while it moves
northward to north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[northjaxpro]

Well, again not surprised with NHC going down with their percentage, now at 40%. They are losing confidence that 97L will develop and I am not surprised by this given the situation which I have discussed on the page.

[Hammy]

I'd say this is done, I haven't seen support from any of today's runs.

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 20/30 @ 2am.

1. The interaction of a broad non-tropical area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda and an
upper-level low is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean. This system
is expected to move northward or north-northwestward with some
potential of tropical or subtropical development during the next
few days before environmental conditions become unfavorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent