ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:10 am

Siker wrote:Up to 60kts:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, DANNY


INIT 20/0900Z 12.2N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 12.6N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 13.5N 46.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 14.3N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 15.5N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 16.3N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 17.0N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH


Per the 5am Disco, Danny was supposed to reach 60kt's in 36 hours... Will this deepening influence him more poleward? Think missing the Caribbean to the NE is the only shot for Danny to survive past 60W... Very cool little system, each season, busy or quiet, always seems to bring us something interesting...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:10 am

I would wager this is a Cat 1 by now:

Image


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Last edited by Siker on Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#623 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:10 am

Siker wrote:Up to 60kts:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, DANNY

Interresting inf. You should even add the 992 mb now... a nice drop from 8 mb compared to the 1000 mb of this morning.


AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, 992, TS
0 likes   

User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#624 Postby Siker » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:12 am

Gustywind wrote:
Siker wrote:Up to 60kts:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, DANNY

Interresting inf. You should even add the 992 mb now... a nice drop from 8 mb compared to the 1000 mb of this morning.


AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, 992, TS


That is very impressive, edited. Thanks!
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#625 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:13 am

Siker wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Siker wrote:Up to 60kts:

AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, DANNY

Interresting inf. You should even add the 992 mb now... a nice drop from 8 mb compared to the 1000 mb of this morning.


AL, 04, 2015082012, , BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, 992, TS


That is very impressive, edited. Thanks!

:) You're welcomed. So looks like Danny is getting better and better during the last 2 hours, interresting hours ahead.
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3383
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

#626 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:14 am

Danny is looking a hell of a lot healthier this morning 8-)

Image
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#627 Postby MGC » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:14 am

If that is an eye than Danny is likely a hurricane IMO. Could sat estimates be off considering its small size???....MGC
0 likes   

NCSTORMMAN

#628 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:16 am

Sure looks like a hurricane to me. I thought it was dry air but nope that is an eye. Could this thing get bigger with intensification?
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#629 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:22 am

With that clear eye, I would go with 70 kt personally. That's a T4.0 in my opinion and Dvorak also underestimates small storms.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#630 Postby Alyono » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:26 am

that is a cane
0 likes   

NCSTORMMAN

Re:

#631 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:27 am

Alyono wrote:that is a cane


When I see you say it Alyono then I know it is one lol. Usually one of the most conservative METS on here for good reason.
0 likes   

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re:

#632 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:29 am

Alyono wrote:that is a cane

So given its appearence Alyono, what are you best estimations in terms of sustained winds now? Do we have a possible cat 1 cane?
0 likes   

NCSTORMMAN

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#633 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:31 am

Pinhole eye on latest frame and gaining north some. Will go to the right of the cone on this path and avoid the Caribbean.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12
0 likes   

User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

Re:

#634 Postby WmE » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:33 am

CrazyC83 wrote:With that clear eye, I would go with 70 kt personally. That's a T4.0 in my opinion and Dvorak also underestimates small storms.


Yeah I agree. Looks T4.0 to me.
0 likes   

User avatar
beoumont
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 473
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:13 pm
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#635 Postby beoumont » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:37 am

Considering the appearance just a few hours ago, I have to ask: is that an eye, or is it Kirk Douglas's chin?
0 likes   
List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#636 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:43 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
7:46 AM ECT THU, AUG 20, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE, AND DANNY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).

ON ITS PRESENT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY. HENCE, RESIDENTS SHOULD COMPLETE THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IN THE EVENT THAT IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT THEM.

ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF DANNY CLOSELY AND PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE ADVISORIES.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM AST.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE INFORMATION

FORECASTER KEITHLEY MEADE
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2108
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#637 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:49 am

Rapid Intensification happening now?

I figure it'll go just as fast in the other direction on Sunday or so.
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#638 Postby blp » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:50 am

Nice looking system. This appearance is not a surprise to me considering how good the low level structure looked yesterday. All it needed was sustained convection and it would take off. The question will be if the stronger system will track right of the guidance and avoid major land interaction. Still plenty of model runs that could change. I MO needs to stay north of the islands to have any chance.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#639 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:54 am

Took a little stair step motion as the eye was stacking and clearing out.
Should be able to get a more accurate 6 hour track this afternoon in time for the 5 pm.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: DANNY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#640 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2015 9:02 am

57 if your on.. So there's no chance this stays N of islands and intensifies? Or atleast maintains minimal hurricane status. 12z models n of nhc track.
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests