ATL: DANNY - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF looks a lot stronger than the 06Z through 33 hours so far (the pressure is about 17MB lower)

[gatorcane]

00Z UKMET track still north of the Leewards with another system behind it (mentioned by NHC):

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z UKMET track still north of the Leewards with another system behind it (mentioned by NHC):

When does the 12Z Ukmet come out?

[RL3AO]

12z GFS continues to make the system moving across the northern plains cut-off sooner and move slower across SE Canada. Been trying to figure if that would allow a closer approach to the East Coast if it were to make it north of the islands. However, I don't see how the ridge will allow it to get north of the Caribbean.

[N2FSU]

00Z UKMET track still north of the Leewards with another system behind it (mentioned by NHC):

When does the 12Z Ukmet come out?

12Z Ukmet shown here

[CaneCurious]

If the 12z Ukmet verifies Florida and the folks in the GOM better prepare. The more I read about Andrew, the more similarities I'm seeing to Danny.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running

[tolakram]

12Z looks nearly identical to 0Z so far. The storm is too small for the models to find.

[TheStormExpert]

Especially the Euro which is low resolution to begin with.

[tolakram]

:uarrow: Especially the Euro which is low resolution to begin with.

I'm looking at higher resolution Weatherbell maps and it's not much better.

[tolakram]

Initialization appeared to be pretty good, a moderate to strong tropical storm anyway, which immediately weakens by 24 hours.

72h

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

12Z Euro loses Danny at about 90 hours.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Vorticity nearly gone at 120h

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Guidance



18z Intensity Guidance

[floridasun78]

Some things never change with Rock and the Euro ;0

Joking aside. I believe the box to look for is 20 and 65, if it comes in South it would be a threat to the US. Further North is usually a miss. Forget the name of that box. Didn't someone at The Weather Channel come up with that? Someone can correct me if wrong.

That is the Hebert Box and he worked at the NWS and NHC.

Paul Hebert (pronounce AY-bear with a French accent). I, and many others, consider him the most knowledged hurricane expert hurricane expert ever to work at the NHC. Many a time, the hurricane forecaster on duty, or director would turn to him for advise.

In the picture below shot as Hurricane Andrew was approaching Miami, Hebert is on the left, then Bob Sheets, Max Mayfield, and Gil Clark. They were deciding exactly which areas of coastline to issue warnings for.

http://www.canebeard.com/i/Album/nhc.jpg

thyat funnny i was their at nhg in goal gable whrn andrew starting move more to west i remmber seen all hurricane expert goiong cazy know south fl was big risking getting big hurr as amdrew all press were setting up for noon avd on andrew and i saw Bob Sheets look worry

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET holds onto it and shoots in WNW to a position just north of Puerto Rico by hour 132:

[caneseddy]

12Z UKMET holds onto it and shoots in WNW to a position just north of Puerto Rico by hour 132:

UKMET has been consistent on having this storm scraping the northern islands for multiple runs now and maintaining it, while the GFS has had it going from Tampa Bay to east of Bermuda to dissipation.

A fun storm to track

[Blown Away]

18z Intensity Guidance

[/quote]



Based on a few models only, it seems a more northerly track may find better conditions...