ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

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ozonepete
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#721 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:06 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Reading through these threads can be funny if you haven't taken a peak in a couple of hours. You read at least 5 posts each of people claiming it is strengthening and people claiming it is weakening. Goes to show just how much these storms pulse up and down. These storms don't work on our timeframe, an hour to them is nothing. You need to see something happening for much longer than just a few frames of a satellite loop to be sure of anything.

Is there any way this hurricane can expand in size? Do tiny hurricanes ever grow into large hurricanes or even more average sized ones? The good news is even if it does get strong and makes landfall, hopefully the wind field will be tiny as well as storm surge area.


That is a good question. Many large hurricanes start out much smaller but usually by the time they are nearing hurricane status you can clearly see a large circulation envelope and know that it will become quite large. In my experience of many years watching these the tiny ones generally do not get much bigger. But I seem to recall that small hurricane Andrew got much larger after it crossed Florida and moved through the Gulf to Louisiana. I'm sure others here must have examples. Also, I can see that Danny is getting bigger but still I doubt it will ever be large so you are right that it's fortunate if it makes landfall. The only problem is if you are the unlucky place to get the eye, of course.
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#722 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:14 pm

moving westard? 295°


000
AXNT20 KNHC 201801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANNY AT 20/1500 UTC WAS NEAR 12.5N
44.8W...OR 950 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING
WESTWARD...OR 295 DEGREES...AT 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
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Re:

#723 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:16 pm

plazaglass wrote:How does Danny's current size compare to Charley in 2004? I seem to recall that was a small hurricane.


Charley just before landfall: Hurricane Winds extended 30 miles from center/ TS Winds 105 miles from center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/pu ... .018.shtml?

Danny: Hurricane winds 10 miles from center/ TS Winds 60 miles from center per latest advisory.
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#724 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:16 pm

Southern half of the CDO has seriously dried up.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#725 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:18 pm

Danny has to be one of the smallest, if not the smallest, hurricane I've ever observed in the Atlantic. It's only about 90 miles across. Chances of it growing significantly in size before reaching the Caribbean are low. TS force winds may extend out only about 30-35 miles south of the center and 40-50 miles to the north.

Small hurricanes can fluctuate in intensity quite rapidly. It could fall apart as quickly as it intensified.
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#726 Postby Gustywind » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:22 pm

Increasing numbers for Hurricane Danny!

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1745 UTC 9.8N 32.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/1145 UTC 9.6N 31.0W T1.0/1.0 96L
17/0545 UTC 9.8N 29.9W T1.0/1.0 96L
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Re:

#727 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:25 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Southern half of the CDO has seriously dried up.



Yea maybe a patch of clouds again later tonight. Incredibly small TC just wow
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Re: Re:

#728 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:29 pm

SFLcane wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:Southern half of the CDO has seriously dried up.



Yea maybe a patch of clouds again later tonight. Incredibly small TC just wow


Convection burst all around the center if I am not mistaken looking at visible.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#729 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:31 pm

The JSL IR enhancement is good in cases where the center might not be obvious, IMO. Looks like southerly shear effecting Danny.

Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#730 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:37 pm

AL, 04, 2015082018, , BEST, 0, 128N, 453W, 65, 992, HU
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#731 Postby Frank2 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:40 pm

Hopefully those new here will take local media with a grain of salt the next few days - too early to tell, and as the Pro Mets have said, it is a very small system, and because of that it can fall apart as quickly as it intensified...

Frank
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#732 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:41 pm

Based on the increasing Dvorak numbers and very tiny size, I would go 70 kt personally, although 992 might be too generous of a pressure estimate. In this environment, 1000mb is probably enough for a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#733 Postby StarmanHDB » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:48 pm

tolakram wrote:The JSL IR enhancement is good in cases where the center might not be obvious, IMO. Looks like southerly shear effecting Danny.

http://imageshack.com/a/img905/7330/Vo8aDh.gif


Not sure if I see shear currently affecting Danny. What my non-meteorological eye sees is more an influx of dry air (entering from the south) currently affecting the storm. Then again, this is such a small system....definitely interesting to track!
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#734 Postby xironman » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:Danny has to be one of the smallest, if not the smallest, hurricane I've ever observed in the Atlantic. It's only about 90 miles across. Chances of it growing significantly in size before reaching the Caribbean are low. TS force winds may extend out only about 30-35 miles south of the center and 40-50 miles to the north.

Small hurricanes can fluctuate in intensity quite rapidly. It could fall apart as quickly as it intensified.


TS but still, Marco - At 0052 UTC on October 7, tropical storm force winds extended 11.5 miles (18.5 km) from the center of Marco. This made Marco the smallest tropical cyclone ever recorded.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... arco_(2008)
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#735 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:56 pm

Looking at the latest visible imagery, Danny's envelope is expanding ever so slowly and the outer bands are beginning to produce convection. Maybe he is eating his Wheaties :wink:
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#736 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 20, 2015 1:59 pm

Shear very well could already be affecting Danny.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#737 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:02 pm

I have a question. People keep referring to Danny having an "eye". Is it really an "eye" or an "eye like feature"? It was my understanding, and it is likely wrong, that tropical systems had to be very developed and of moderate (cat 2 or higher) strength to actually support a true "eye".
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#738 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:08 pm

StarmanHDB wrote:
tolakram wrote:The JSL IR enhancement is good in cases where the center might not be obvious, IMO. Looks like southerly shear effecting Danny.

http://imageshack.com/a/img905/7330/Vo8aDh.gif


Not sure if I see shear currently affecting Danny. What my non-meteorological eye sees is more an influx of dry air (entering from the south) currently affecting the storm. Then again, this is such a small system....definitely interesting to track!


The Saharan Air Layer data and mid-level water vapor image on CIMSS show no dry air whatsoever to the south of Danny. Btw with all of this talk about the southern half disintegrating someone needs to explain the hot towers popping there...
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#739 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:09 pm

ozonepete wrote:
StarmanHDB wrote:
tolakram wrote:The JSL IR enhancement is good in cases where the center might not be obvious, IMO. Looks like southerly shear effecting Danny.

http://imageshack.com/a/img905/7330/Vo8aDh.gif


Not sure if I see shear currently affecting Danny. What my non-meteorological eye sees is more an influx of dry air (entering from the south) currently affecting the storm. Then again, this is such a small system....definitely interesting to track!


The Saharan Air Layer data and mid-level water vapor image on CIMSS show no dry air whatsoever to the south of Danny. Btw with all of this talk about the southern half disintegrating someone needs to explain the hot towers popping there...



EXACTLY! this thing is spreading out some and firing new hot towers all around the center. It is expanding right now and seems to be doing a good job of holding on. We shall see throughout today and tomorrow just how strong this gets.
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#740 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:10 pm

We will get a better feel for his Northern wind field shortly. The closest thing we have to recon is below:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
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