ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

I have a question. People keep referring to Danny having an "eye". Is it really an "eye" or an "eye like feature"? It was my understanding, and it is likely wrong, that tropical systems had to be very developed and of moderate (cat 2 or higher) strength to actually support a true "eye".

No. Cat 1 hurricanes often have an eye and even tropical storms sometimes have an eye, although usually with TS's they'll call it an eye-like feature if the storm doesn't have enough symmetry and tropical eyewall characteristics. There is still a lot of research being done and there's no one accepted theory devised as of yet to explain it completely. In Danny's case it's definitely an eye.

[StarmanHDB]

The JSL IR enhancement is good in cases where the center might not be obvious, IMO. Looks like southerly shear effecting Danny.

http://imageshack.com/a/img905/7330/Vo8aDh.gif

Not sure if I see shear currently affecting Danny. What my non-meteorological eye sees is more an influx of dry air (entering from the south) currently affecting the storm. Then again, this is such a small system....definitely interesting to track!

The Saharan Air Layer data and mid-level water vapor image on CIMSS show no dry air whatsoever to the south of Danny. Btw with all of this talk about the southern half disintegrating someone needs to explain the hot towers popping there...

And to any new S2K members (or visitors), THIS is one of the reasons why I love S2K! Ask a valid question or raise an interesting point and someone will always provide a well-considered response. Thanks ozonepete and the rest of S2K's PROMETS! You guys rule!

[tatertawt24]

Looks like some darker yellows above the eye now on AVN. Really needs work on his south side, though.

[ozonepete]

Your welcome. YOU guys rule!

[tropicwatch]

I am really having a tough time calling David, him. I am so use to saying her when referring to a hurricane. PC is such a bummer

[ozonepete]

I am really having a tough time calling David, him. I am so use to saying her when referring to a hurricane. PC is such a bummer

And you shouldn't call him David anyway, lol.

[drezee]

Looks like some darker yellows above the eye now on AVN. Really needs work on his south side, though.

The eye really cleared up and warmed up on the 1815 and 1845 Sat Frames...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Bocadude85]

Danny looks to be strengthening this afternoon. Hot towers firing in the southern eyewall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

[ozonepete]

Looks like some darker yellows above the eye now on AVN. Really needs work on his south side, though.

The eye really cleared up and warmed up on the 1815 and 1845 Sat Frames...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Yup. Clearly intensifying again.

[tatertawt24]

Oh, wow, the 19:15 scan looks much better! I guess it's just the convection rotating around the eye (that made me think the south side was in worse shape)?

[StarmanHDB]

OK....looking at the floater / water vapor loop (12:15 - 19:15 UTC) it definitely appears that Danny is very much alive, breathing, and intensifying. Such a cool little storm!

[CrazyC83]

How high would NHC go if this is clearly strengthening with hot towers?

[drezee]

Danny has to be one of the smallest, if not the smallest, hurricane I've ever observed in the Atlantic. It's only about 90 miles across. Chances of it growing significantly in size before reaching the Caribbean are low. TS force winds may extend out only about 30-35 miles south of the center and 40-50 miles to the north.

Small hurricanes can fluctuate in intensity quite rapidly. It could fall apart as quickly as it intensified.

Wxman you got me thinking...this Hurricane Danny is about the same size as Hurricane Danny in 1997. I will post a side by side lat/long picture when it was named...

The wind field was about same as well...convection was a little deeper in '97 though

[Bocadude85]

How high would NHC go if this is clearly strengthening with hot towers?

I would think they bump him up to 70kts at 5pm. Maybe 75kts.

[HurricaneBrain]

Banding is clearly evident in the last scan, Danny is definitely intensifying.

[gatorcane]

Danny has to be one of the smallest, if not the smallest, hurricane I've ever observed in the Atlantic. It's only about 90 miles across. Chances of it growing significantly in size before reaching the Caribbean are low. TS force winds may extend out only about 30-35 miles south of the center and 40-50 miles to the north.

Small hurricanes can fluctuate in intensity quite rapidly. It could fall apart as quickly as it intensified.

It's pretty amazing how small it is yet it seems to be intensifying. Looking good on SAT imagery this afternoon.

The models are going to have a fun time trying to forecast this system (most models showed nothing at this time this time last week, now look what we have)! Can we fully trust them?

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Danny finally became a Hurricane earlier today. It looks better right now.



I hope this brings needed rain to Puerto Rico, and the surrounding rains. Models are getting more logical about the storm keeping it a category 1 and then weakening it. Also, it looks like it may be an issue later on for the Bahamas and South Florida on the models.

Synopsis on Danny and other systems: http://goo.gl/kd1rKV

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny has to be one of the smallest, if not the smallest, hurricane I've ever observed in the Atlantic. It's only about 90 miles across. Chances of it growing significantly in size before reaching the Caribbean are low. TS force winds may extend out only about 30-35 miles south of the center and 40-50 miles to the north.

Small hurricanes can fluctuate in intensity quite rapidly. It could fall apart as quickly as it intensified.

It's pretty amazing how small it is yet it seems to be intensifying. Looking good on SAT imagery this afternoon.

The models are going to have a fun time trying to resolve this system!

lol I second this.

[ozonepete]

How high would NHC go if this is clearly strengthening with hot towers?

I would think they bump him up to 70kts at 5pm. Maybe 75kts.

Just remember though, guys, that they tend to play it very conservative, especially if it's well out to sea and they don't have recent recon to verify. They will almost surely note the convection increase and overall presentation but they will probably leave the intensity the same for now. Just my guess. You all know they sometimes surprise us.

[HurricaneBrain]

With the latest burst it looks like Danny is undergoing RI