ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[drezee]

1997 Danny

[TheStormExpert]

Did a new SSMIS pass come in this afternoon?

[floridasun78]

ok like hurr season now start in Atlantic side El Nino taking break in Atlantic

[Hammy]

The models are going to have a fun time trying to forecast this system (most models showed nothing at this time this time last week, now look what we have)! Can we fully trust them?

I'm starting to wonder if the models dropping Danny after a few days may possibly be a result of the small size and resolution trouble causing it to show up as weaker/less organized than it actually is, especially if it can manage to fight off the shear for a few days.

[Weatherboy1]

Danny definitely looks better in terms of structure now. Convection wrapping around center and banding in all quadrants except for the SW looks pretty healthy. Definitely a fighter!

[hurricanekid416]

The smaller this is, the better for the islands in terms of wind damage however they really need the rain and this storm may dissapoint some islands looking for more rain

[johngaltfla]

Looking much better this afternoon however, please rain out on the islands, they need it BAD. Florida however does not need ANY more rain. Sheesh, I'm waiting on someone to come out and designate my back yard as a lake.

[HurricaneBrain]

Red starting to pop up around Danny's eye

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to me like Danny is going to miss the next forecast point to the north. Little wobbles now can have big effects downstream, especially when your talking impacting the big islands or missing to the north.

SFT

[Evil Jeremy]

The intrigue of Danny makes up for the uninteresting past couple of months (in regards to the Tropics). His small size makes his intensity harder to predict and gives the models difficulty. Wish we had recon in there right now but he is too far away at the moment. I'm especially curious how 97L will affect the Atlantic ridge. Going to be a fun weekend ahead!

Looking much better this afternoon however, please rain out on the islands, they need it BAD. Florida however does not need ANY more rain. Sheesh, I'm waiting on someone to come out and designate my back yard as a lake.

Hey, SE Florida begs to differ lol. Not that I want a TS, but we need a rain event to get rid of our drought

[jlauderdal]

Looking much better this afternoon however, please rain out on the islands, they need it BAD. Florida however does not need ANY more rain. Sheesh, I'm waiting on someone to come out and designate my back yard as a lake.

west cooast of florida doesnt need rain..SE coast is still in extreme drought...the power of the ridge this summer and that ridging is locked down for at least another week for sofla.

[ozonepete]

Also if it remains strong the GFS will be right and it will clip the islands or go just north. Euro has had a much weaker system going into the Caribbean.

And yes this is so small I am sure the global models will have problems. The core is literally smaller than the smallest grid-points, lol.

[StarmanHDB]

Looking much better this afternoon however, please rain out on the islands, they need it BAD. Florida however does not need ANY more rain. Sheesh, I'm waiting on someone to come out and designate my back yard as a lake.

While I'm glad you're enjoying your "lake", my side of Florida (esp. populated Broward and Miami-Dade counties) is definitely in need of rain. That said, should Little Danny make a Florida visit, let's hope he doesn't have a Napoleon Complex like his cousin Little Andrew did back in 1992! NO ONE needs that!



http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/Stat ... or.aspx?FL

[SouthFLTropics]

The intrigue of Danny makes up for the uninteresting past couple of months (in regards to the Tropics). His small size makes his intensity harder to predict and gives the models difficulty. Wish we had recon in there right now but he is too far away at the moment. I'm especially curious how 97L will affect the Atlantic ridge. Going to be a fun weekend ahead!

Looking much better this afternoon however, please rain out on the islands, they need it BAD. Florida however does not need ANY more rain. Sheesh, I'm waiting on someone to come out and designate my back yard as a lake.

Hey, SE Florida begs to differ lol. Not that I want a TS, but we need a rain event to get rid of our drought

Extreme SE Florida is still pretty dry. Not so bad up here on the Treasure Coast. Danny is for sure an intriguing storm and I agree that it makes up for the quiet months we've had. It's good to be back on here having something to track, especially one as tricky as this. It's why were all here at S2K. Been here every season since 2003 and it never gets old.

SFT

[Bocadude85]

Up to 70kts.

OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 45.7W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

[Evil Jeremy]

Red starting to pop up around Danny's eye http://i58.tinypic.com/kezo85.png

All systems are go in the SW quad:

[Weatherboy1]

Looks to me like Danny is going to miss the next forecast point to the north. Little wobbles now can have big effects downstream, especially when your talking impacting the big islands or missing to the north.

SFT

Very true. While models definitely indicate a turn more toward the west in 48 hours or so, the starting point will determine whether this thing maybe gets ripped apart by Hispanola or is able to stay over water and avoid the worst of the land masses in its potential path. We'll see.

[wxman57]

Danny has to be one of the smallest, if not the smallest, hurricane I've ever observed in the Atlantic. It's only about 90 miles across. Chances of it growing significantly in size before reaching the Caribbean are low. TS force winds may extend out only about 30-35 miles south of the center and 40-50 miles to the north.

Small hurricanes can fluctuate in intensity quite rapidly. It could fall apart as quickly as it intensified.

TS but still, Marco - At 0052 UTC on October 7, tropical storm force winds extended 11.5 miles (18.5 km) from the center of Marco. This made Marco the smallest tropical cyclone ever recorded.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... arco_(2008)

That's why I said "hurricane" and not "tropical cyclone". I think that Danny's max winds are at around 12 miles from the center.

[caneseddy]

NHC basically keeps the same intensity forecast (going up to 85 mph) with weakening forecast to begin in 36 hours

No change in future track

Below is a snippet regarding dry air

Although Danny continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level
air, the recent development of outer banding features noted in
satellite images suggests that entrainment of this dry air might not
be as much of an inhibiting factor as it has been during the past
couple of days

And shear

However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb
vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to
southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially
as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island

And recon

Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will be
investigating Danny Friday afternoon, and that data will provide a
better estimate of the hurricane's structure and strength.

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, we are definitely going to have to see how Danny looks come Saturday morning once he's in less friendly confines. I still think that if this system makes its turn back to the west further north ... meaning it avoids those islands in the Caribbean ... we could end up with a stronger system down the road than currently anticipated - unless the shear is truly brutal. My opinion only, as always.