ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank P]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

So are you saying that your friend states it will move north of PR and then thru the Florida Straits, or north of the Florida Straits, which basically means hitting the Florida peninsula? And does your friend have any met training? Just wondering..

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like the last few hours this has been heading more north than west or about 310

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

Hurricane Danny will hit the TUTT like hitting a wall of bricks starting tomorrow evening if not sooner than that. The only way it will not weaken if the TUTT which has not moved at all in days gets out of the way of Danny.

[WPBWeather]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

So are you saying that your friend states it will move north of PR and then thru the Florida Straits, or north of the Florida Straits, which basically means hitting the Florida peninsula? And does your friend have any met training? Just wondering..

You ask an interesting question. But it does seem many ProMets (especially the Tweeters) have been playing catch up with this storm for several days.

[bahamaswx]

It looks like the last few hours this has been heading more north than west or about 310

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I just noticed this as well. Definitely much more north.

[CronkPSU]

It looks like the last few hours this has been heading more north than west or about 310

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I just noticed this as well. Definitely much more north.

Or is it expanding, we have been fooled by that before by storms

[blp]

Watching the wobble to the North as well. The Euro keeps this around 15N when it makes its due West turn into Carribean. Need to keep an eye on that Latitude.

[NDG]

[TheStormExpert]

New Video Discussion from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits: New video discussion on Hurricane Danny and Tropical Depression 03C: http://t.co/eRl31pjkOd

[Frank2]

As NDG said, very hostile conditions ahead of Danny:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

[NCSTORMMAN]

I believe Danny is going to reach near 100 MPH and will make it to the Bahamas as a TC. Just my 2 cents or 1 cent or whatever you want to call my opinion. It is firing up reds on top of the eye again. Deepening a lot here. It has grown in size almost double since earlier today.

[Weatherboy1]

One question that I have: assuming Danny makes it through the worst if the shear zone, is there smoother air ahead of it? Meaning, if Danny survives the eastern Caribbean/northern Leewards shear gauntlet, is there a chance to re-intensify closer to the Bahamas/SE FL?

[blp]

IMO, What kills this on the models ultimately is running into Hispaniola. Both the Euro and GFS are consistent with this. The shear and dry air will severely impact it no doubt but land interaction with those mountains is fatal and especially with a weakening system. We have seen that many times before. If it can get north of Hispaniola at least the low level vort may stay intact.

[msbee]

Danny is forecast to weaken as it approaches us. The latest NHC discussion states " However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb
vertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to
southwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially
as Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island.."

I know to always prepare etc. Gonzalo surprised us last year by being stronger and more destructive than forecast. So I am taking no chances this time around.
I would like some expert opinions though on what you all think about Danny actually weakening as he approaches the islands. pros and cons on this forecast please?
Thanks.

Hi msbee (Barbara), greetings to you also for this new 2015 season. Hope you are well! I am laid up with a broken ankle.

I hate to have to say it, but this one is tough and I, personally, can't go any further than what the NHC and some of our smart pro-mets here have been saying. This is one is very tough to forecast. Because of its small size it can fluctuate up and down in intensity much more than larger storms. Thus over a few hours period you will see people saying it's going to dissipate completely and then say it's going to be a major hurricane. The only negative aspect that could hurt it right now is dry air around it that, if it gets sucked in, would kill the storm. But right now it seems to be walling off the dry air and thus it has nothing to stop it from getting stronger. By Friday some increasing wind shear could hurt it more, but if it's quite strong by then the shear will take longer to hurt it and it could make it to your islands as a cat 1 hurricane (outside chance cat 2). But if it doesn't get much stronger tonight and then gets sheared tomorrow night and Friday, you could have a mild tropical storm instead with beneficial rainfall. Also, because the size is small it could be very strong at one island and almost nothing at the neighboring ones. A lot to worry about, eh? But you are one of our seasoned experts like Gusty and cycloneye so you know the drill: even a mild tropical storm can produce devastating floods, and you should prepare for a hurricane coming Monday so that you are not caught off guard. I never really forecast until 3 days out or less, so I will try to be more specific tomorrow evening.

Hi Pete thanks for the answer. sorry to hear you have a broken ankle. feel better soon.
so we continue to wait and watch.. prepare for the worst and and hope for the best

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Watching the wobble to the North as well. The Euro keeps this around 15N when it makes its due West turn into Carribean. Need to keep an eye on that Latitude.

Evening B,

Just posted a similar question in the models forum. Most seem to think Danny will go through the islands, if it just skirts them to the north could be a very different situation down the road.

[blp]

Watching the wobble to the North as well. The Euro keeps this around 15N when it makes its due West turn into Carribean. Need to keep an eye on that Latitude.

Evening B,

Just posted a similar question in the models forum. Most seem to think Danny will go through the islands, if it just skirts them to the north could be a very different situation down the road.

Yea, just posted, the models show major land interaction in addition to the other negatives. Take land interaction out and maybe the low level vort may survive to see better conditions in the bahamas.

[ozonepete]

Hurricane Danny will hit the TUTT like hitting a wall of bricks starting tomorrow evening if not sooner than that. The only way it will not weaken if the TUTT which has not moved at all in days gets out of the way of Danny.

The NHC has been saying that the trough will weaken and lift out over the next 3 days. So maybe jello wall would be more accurate.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Hurricane Danny will hit the TUTT like hitting a wall of bricks starting tomorrow evening if not sooner than that. The only way it will not weaken if the TUTT which has not moved at all in days gets out of the way of Danny.

The NHC has been saying that it will weaken and lift out over the next 3 days...

So they feel there will be enough of a weakness for what is ever left of Danny to head NE and out.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Hurricane Danny will hit the TUTT like hitting a wall of bricks starting tomorrow evening if not sooner than that. The only way it will not weaken if the TUTT which has not moved at all in days gets out of the way of Danny.

The NHC has been saying that it will weaken and lift out over the next 3 days...

So they feel there will be enough of a weakness for what is ever left of Danny to head NE and out.

I think he meant the TUTT.

[ozonepete]

Hurricane Danny will hit the TUTT like hitting a wall of bricks starting tomorrow evening if not sooner than that. The only way it will not weaken if the TUTT which has not moved at all in days gets out of the way of Danny.

The NHC has been saying that it will weaken and lift out over the next 3 days...

I think he meant the TUTT.

The TUTT is the trough - Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough

And it really is more of a trough - it's not a true TUTT