ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[ronjon]

Looking at the SAT, Danny looks the best it ever has. Convection expanding, nice feeder band reaching down to 5 deg LAT. Would not be surprised if it reaches CAT 2 status tomorrow.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Thanks for the clarification ozonepete.

[tropicwatch]

Quite a wall of dry air currently in front of Danny.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you for the clarification.

[ozonepete]

Quite a wall of dry air currently in front of Danny.

http://tropicwatch.info/tccapture.gif

First remember that most of that is dusty Saharan air, not technically dry, low Relative Humidity mid-level air (i.e. there is moisture in that air as well.) And that "wall" of dusty air is moving out too fast ahead of Danny so that much of it will dissipate and get rained out in tropical showers before Danny can ingest it. One of the most interesting aspect of Danny so far is that it has ingested some of that dusty air and survived it. Now with its banding features and good central dense overcast it has a better chance of raining out the dust before it ingests it into its core.

[ozonepete]

Thanks for the clarification ozonepete.

Anytime. Just trying to help in areas where I'm pretty sure of the science.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Quite a wall of dry air currently in front of Danny.

http://tropicwatch.info/tccapture.gif

First remember that most of that is dusty Saharan air, not technically dry, low Relative Humidity mid-level air (i.e. there is moisture in that air as well.) And that "wall" of dusty air is moving out too fast ahead of Danny so that much of it will dissipate and get rained out in tropical showers before Danny can ingest it. One of the most interesting aspect of Danny so far is that it has ingested some of that dusty air and survived it. Now with its banding features and good central dense overcast it has a better chance of raining out the dust before it ingests it into its core.

Very good information and coming from one of the people I trust on this site.

[WPBWeather]

Quite a wall of dry air currently in front of Danny.

http://tropicwatch.info/tccapture.gif

First remember that most of that is dusty Saharan air, not technically dry, low Relative Humidity mid-level air (i.e. there is moisture in that air as well.) And that "wall" of dusty air is moving out too fast ahead of Danny so that much of it will dissipate and get rained out in tropical showers before Danny can ingest it. One of the most interesting aspect of Danny so far is that it has ingested some of that dusty air and survived it. Now with its banding features and good central dense overcast it has a better chance of raining out the dust before it ingests it into its core.

Very good information and coming from one of the people I trust on this site.

Absolutely agree. He's on par with Gatorcane, IMHO

[tropicwatch]

I stand corrected, dusty air

[Gustywind]

Hey peps, who can post the latest sat pic related to Hurricane Danny? Thanks

[alienstorm]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

If you look at this there are a couple of things to point out.

1 - Dust and generally dry air all to the north of Danny
2- More important you can clearly see the S to SW vertical shear commencing between 50 and 55 west

[ozonepete]

I stand corrected, dusty air

Lol and anyone who knows us here knows I love panamatropicwatch - really knowledgeable, cautious and smart.

[SFLcane]

Hey peps, who can post the latest sat pic related to Hurricane Danny? Thanks

Here ya go..

[Steve]

I know it's been climbing a little today which perhaps is in response to what's out ahead, but the mimic run sort of looks like it's lifting up out of the itcz.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015


HURRICANE DANNY CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 45.7W AT 20/2100 UTC OR 895
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER WITH A BANDING FEATURE
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 45 NM AND 105 NM IN THE
NW SEMICIRCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DANNY TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SLIGHT WEAKEN THEN
EXPECTED BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

[NCSTORMMAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015


HURRICANE DANNY CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 45.7W AT 20/2100 UTC OR 895
NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER WITH A BANDING FEATURE
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 45 NM AND 105 NM IN THE
NW SEMICIRCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DANNY TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SLIGHT WEAKEN THEN
EXPECTED BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

Looks stronger than earlier to me. What do I know though.

[Gustywind]

Hey peps, who can post the latest sat pic related to Hurricane Danny? Thanks

Here ya go..

[ozonepete]

I know it's been climbing a little today which perhaps is in response to what's out ahead, but the mimic run sort of looks like it's lifting up out of the itcz.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Oh it has, for sure. It's pretty much out of the ITCZ now. So it has cut the umbilical cord and is on its own now...

[Dean4Storms]

Is it just me or does Danny look like he's turned more NW than forecast the last few Sat. frames?

[floridasun78]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

So are you saying that your friend states it will move north of PR and then thru the Florida Straits, or north of the Florida Straits, which basically means hitting the Florida peninsula? And does your friend have any met training? Just wondering..

yes he do he have long running show call barometer show that end because his hearth he study alot models and alot past hurricane he notice that way weather system off us east coast going move out that 97l that allow Danny move to north coast Porto Rico not into carribbean he got feeling will go by Florida, Straits into gulf