2. An area of nearly stationary pulsing convection is about 1450 miles west-southwest of Honolulu. Environmental conditions appear to support slow development in this area during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.
Noticed this earlier. About to enter the WPAC.
CPAC: LOKE - Post-Tropical
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Yellow Evan
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CPAC: LOKE - Post-Tropical
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:37 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C
EURO intensifies this into a full blow small typhoon then does a fujiwhara with monster Atsani...
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C
Literally near the dateline showing Typhoon Etau but then moves it into the Central Pacific...
No longer showing a Fujiwhara with Atsani...
No longer showing a Fujiwhara with Atsani...
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C
So far GFS doesn't develop this...
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1900hurricane
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Not really in much of a hurry to go anywhere right now, just kinda hanging around barely on the western hemisphere side of the dateline.
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Re: CPAC: INVEST 94C
It looks sheared, but CMISS and SHIPS show low shear.
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP942015 08/20/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 31 34 38 40 41 43 46 47
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 31 34 38 40 41 43 46 47
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 25 26 26 27 29 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 8 6 4 8 2 4 2 4 2 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 -1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 119 111 101 104 115 286 334 355 288 235 271 45 51
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 150 150 151 152 152 154 152 152 151 151
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9
700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 65 64 63 59 60 61 58 55 55 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 62 53 49 46 40 33 24 16 8 11 11 -4
200 MB DIV 35 32 17 -4 -8 2 7 0 8 20 -5 3 -35
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 2172 2131 2089 2072 2055 2083 2176 4213 4110 4017 3940 3890 3861
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 178.4 178.1 177.8 177.7 177.6 178.0 179.0 180.5 181.9 183.3 184.5 185.5 186.2
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 1 4 6 7 7 7 6 5 3
HEAT CONTENT 62 59 56 55 54 59 67 75 75 73 71 71 71
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. 26. 27.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP942015 08/20/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 31 34 38 40 41 43 46 47
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 31 34 38 40 41 43 46 47
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 25 25 26 26 27 29 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 8 6 4 8 2 4 2 4 2 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 -1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 119 111 101 104 115 286 334 355 288 235 271 45 51
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 150 150 151 152 152 154 152 152 151 151
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9
700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 65 64 63 59 60 61 58 55 55 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 77 62 53 49 46 40 33 24 16 8 11 11 -4
200 MB DIV 35 32 17 -4 -8 2 7 0 8 20 -5 3 -35
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 2172 2131 2089 2072 2055 2083 2176 4213 4110 4017 3940 3890 3861
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 178.4 178.1 177.8 177.7 177.6 178.0 179.0 180.5 181.9 183.3 184.5 185.5 186.2
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 1 4 6 7 7 7 6 5 3
HEAT CONTENT 62 59 56 55 54 59 67 75 75 73 71 71 71
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. 26. 27.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942015 INVEST 08/20/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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Yellow Evan
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Looks classifiable to me.
CPHC will wait till 2.0. SAB and CPHC were 1.5 earlier.
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WTPA32 PHFO 210245
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C FORMS NEAR THE DATELINE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 177.5W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SWING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FOUR-C WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
TCPCP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042015
500 PM HST THU AUG 20 2015
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C FORMS NEAR THE DATELINE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 177.5W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM W OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SWING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FOUR-C WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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1900hurricane
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Definitely more on the scale of Danny than Atsani.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:What is the next name after Kilo?
Loke
Considering hurricanes with female names are the most potent, it would be most fitting for 93C to get it
.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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1900hurricane
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Not a bad microwave pass for a depression.
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Re: Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:What is the next name after Kilo?
Loke
Considering hurricanes with female names are the most potent, it would be most fitting for 93C to get it
Loke to me sounds "stronger".
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TXPN42 PHFO 210550
TCSNP2
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0550 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015
A. Tropical depression Four-C.
B. 21/0530Z.
C. 14.8°N.
D. 177.5°W.
E. Goes-15.
F. T2.0/2.0/d1.0/24 hours.
G. Vis/ir/eir.
H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center < than 45 nm from EIR bd dg yields a data t of 2.5. MET and PT are 2.0. Final T based on data t, but held down by constraints.
I. Addl positions none.
$$
Ryshko.
TCSNP2
CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0550 UTC FRI AUG 21 2015
A. Tropical depression Four-C.
B. 21/0530Z.
C. 14.8°N.
D. 177.5°W.
E. Goes-15.
F. T2.0/2.0/d1.0/24 hours.
G. Vis/ir/eir.
H. Remarks: Shear pattern with center < than 45 nm from EIR bd dg yields a data t of 2.5. MET and PT are 2.0. Final T based on data t, but held down by constraints.
I. Addl positions none.
$$
Ryshko.
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