ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I know it's been climbing a little today which perhaps is in response to what's out ahead, but the mimic run sort of looks like it's lifting up out of the itcz.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Oh it has, for sure. It's pretty much out of the ITCZ now. So it has cut the umbilical cord and is on its own now...

Good evening ozonepete. Good to see you on the forum tonight. Yeah, Danny is on his own to battle the conditions ahead for sure. But, he is doing a very commendable job to this point of holding his own and shielding his well developed innercore from the mid level dry air surrounding it currently. The real challenge begins late tomorrow into the weekend as Danny moves past 50 degrees Longitude and enters a shear zone as mentioned astutely by others. Small tropical cyclones like Danny are very.unpredictable and over the years I have seen such systems like Danny defy the odds. So, the next few days will be interesting ones monitoring Danny for sure.

[jlauderdal]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

So are you saying that your friend states it will move north of PR and then thru the Florida Straits, or north of the Florida Straits, which basically means hitting the Florida peninsula? And does your friend have any met training? Just wondering..

yes he do he have long running show call barometer show that end because his hearth he study alot models and alot past hurricane he notice that way weather system off us east coast going move out that 97l that allow Danny move to north coast Porto Rico not into carribbean he got feeling will go by Florida, Straits into gulf

legendary barometer bob?

[Hammy]

Is it just me or does Danny look like he's turned more NW than forecast the last few Sat. frames?

It looks like it might be stair stepping north with every new convective burst.

Something else, due to the very small size at the moment, I'm starting to wonder if the earlier models that showed a tiny but more intense system either hitting the northern Antilles or missing all together may have been more accurate than the present runs, if the models are having difficulty resolving the small size.

[floridasun78]

thier thing he notice high will build up again off east coast of usa when 97l move north weakness will cause north of islands before high rebuild Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

legendary barometer bob?[/quote]
yes he good friend of my he know Levi he came show few time i spoke to him today by phone about Danny he watch it he feeling good one that wont under Porto Rico what he saw on weather system off usa coast 97l and high pressure

[jlauderdal]

legendary barometer bob?

yes he good friend of my he know Levi he came show few time i spoke to him today by phone about Danny he watch it he feeling good one that wont under Porto Rico what he saw on weather system off usa coast 97l and high pressure[/quote]

listened to an hour long show bob did about dealing with pets in hurricanes as a system was bearing down on the usa, back when we had hurricanes...legendary

[Nimbus]

my friend think it going move by north coast of Porto Rico and Dominican Republic and Florida, Straits

So are you saying that your friend states it will move north of PR and then thru the Florida Straits, or north of the Florida Straits, which basically means hitting the Florida peninsula? And does your friend have any met training? Just wondering..

yes he do he have long running show call barometer show that end because his hearth he study alot models and alot past hurricane he notice that way weather system off us east coast going move out that 97l that allow Danny move to north coast Porto Rico not into carribbean he got feeling will go by Florida, Straits into gulf

My grandfather kept part of an atomic clock from a satellite on his hearth back in 1964.
Jackie Gleason used to say "and away we go" back then, make motion like 97l with arm.
Timing could be right for a pass through Florida straits with right clock.

[gatorcane]

Absolutely agree. He's on par with Gatorcane, IMHO

Thanks but ozonepete being a MET has way more experience than me with these tropical systems!

I personally don't see Danny surviving the shear and dry air that will hit it as it nears the Leewards. Being small, it is going to succumb more easily than had it been a larger more robust system. Also you will notice the CMC model is not even enthusiastic. As that model develops just about anything with a spin, you know conditions must be really bad ahead for Danny.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Hurricane Danny will hit the TUTT like hitting a wall of bricks starting tomorrow evening if not sooner than that. The only way it will not weaken if the TUTT which has not moved at all in days gets out of the way of Danny.

The NHC has been saying that the trough will weaken and lift out over the next 3 days. So maybe jello wall would be more accurate.

I am not talking about the mid level trough, I am talking about the "TUTT"
There's a walk of SW UL winds ahead of of Danny, the same SW windshear the NHC says Danny will encounter sabot approaches the islands.

Edit: and when the NHC talks about steering weaknesses they are referring to mid level troughs not TUTTs, IMO.

[JonathanBelles]

New Post:

http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/20/mi ... e-threats/

[invest man]

It looks like 97l or whatever it becomes is not going to be in a hurry to leave the area. Question, could that system provide an exit for Danny to perhaps move out in that direction. After all did not earlier models hint to this type of exit?

[Weatherlover12]

Hurricane Danny will hit the TUTT like hitting a wall of bricks starting tomorrow evening if not sooner than that. The only way it will not weaken if the TUTT which has not moved at all in days gets out of the way of Danny.

The NHC has been saying that the trough will weaken and lift out over the next 3 days. So maybe jello wall would be more accurate.

I am not talking about the mid level trough, I am talking about the "TUTT"
There's a walk of SW UL winds ahead of of Danny, the same SW windshear the NHC says Danny will encounter sabot approaches the islands.

We will see tomorrow. The TUTT might move out.. we are just not sure yet. It all depends on the system forming near bermuda and it also depends on how the storm fares tomorrow. We need to be patient and wait for the weekend to make predictions. Have a good night

WeatherLover12

[NDG]

you guys are confusing mid level troughs with UL troughs.

[ConvergenceZone]

Absolutely agree. He's on par with Gatorcane, IMHO

Thanks but ozonepete being a MET has way more experience than me with these tropical systems!

I personally don't see Danny surviving the shear and dry air that will hit it as it nears the Leewards. Being small, it is going to succumb more easily than had it been a larger more robust system. Also you will notice the CMC model is not even enthusiastic. As that model develops just about anything with a spin, you know conditions must be really bad ahead for Danny.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree Gator. The more I look at what's forecast and the size of the storm and what mets are saying, I'd probably give Danny about a 5 to 10% chance of surviving past the small islands. We know that large storms can often overcome bad conditions, but a tiny storm like Danny doesn't stand a chance in my opinion........It's still been fun to watch and has some left before it crumbles.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, Danny holding his own for sure with a narrow band of deep red convection. It's eye came out briefly too:

[NCSTORMMAN]

All I want to know is WHEN this storm makes it past bad conditions in the Caribbean what does it look like on the other side? Ideal? Okay? Bad? Also, I am talking opinion and model based stuff.

[Gustywind]

Slight increasing numbers for Cat 1 Hurricane Dany...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/2345 UTC 11.0N 38.3W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
18/1745 UTC 11.1N 37.0W T2.0/2.0 04L
18/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.9W T2.0/2.0 96L
18/0545 UTC 9.5N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 96L
18/0000 UTC 9.3N 33.2W T1.0/1.0 96L

[northjaxpro]

It looks like 97l or whatever it becomes is not going to be in a hurry to leave the area. Question, could that system provide an exit for Danny to perhaps move out in that direction. After all did not earlier models hint to this type of exit?

This is an interesting question. 97L is still in the primitive stage of organizing and you are right it looks to be a slowly evolving system. It is possible that 97L if it does not.move out quickly to the north of Bermuda may keep a weakness in place and erode the mid level ridge on its western edge early next week to possibly influence whatever is left of Danny at that time. If 97L develop into a named storm and moves farther away over the next 5-7 days, then it is possible that mid level ridge could also build back in behind that system and that in turn may force Danny more on a west motion header, provided if Danny is still around.

[ozonepete]

Hurricane Danny will hit the TUTT like hitting a wall of bricks starting tomorrow evening if not sooner than that. The only way it will not weaken if the TUTT which has not moved at all in days gets out of the way of Danny.

The NHC has been saying that the trough will weaken and lift out over the next 3 days. So maybe jello wall would be more accurate.

I am not talking about the mid level trough, I am talking about the "TUTT"
There's a walk of SW UL winds ahead of of Danny, the same SW windshear the NHC says Danny will encounter sabot approaches the islands.

Edit: and when the NHC talks about steering weaknesses they are referring to mid level troughs not TUTTs, IMO.

Yes I know the difference. But there is no classic TUTT out there right now. Read the latest NHC tropical Atlantic discussion. They always talk about the TUTT when there is one and they don't talk about it right now. A true TUTT extends from the north central Atlantic southwestward towards Florida and then eastward into the tropical central Atlantic. We don't currently have one.

Also, a strong upper level flow of winds at 300 or 200 mb often enhance a TC, not weaken it, because they enhance the upper outflow. Shear is measured through a layer, not just at one altitude. Thus shear we look for that can give a tropical cyclone a severe haircut is usually measured from 850 mb to 200mb or some other less thick layer depending on how "tall" the cyclone is. So a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Pacific often gets a strength boost as it first encounters a TUTT to its west. The SW winds initially remove air from the top of the storm and thus help the outflow.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: you guys are confusing mid level troughs with UL troughs.

I'm not. read my post.