ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

All I want to know is WHEN this storm makes it past bad conditions in the Caribbean what does it look like on the other side? Ideal? Okay? Bad? Also, I am talking opinion and model based stuff.

IMO, is anybody's guess right now, it could be really bad UL conditions or really good conditions and if it could stay away from land.
Is a small system so if it encounters really bad conditions it could really weaken into almost nothing.

[NDG]

The NHC has been saying that the trough will weaken and lift out over the next 3 days. So maybe jello wall would be more accurate.

I am not talking about the mid level trough, I am talking about the "TUTT"
There's a walk of SW UL winds ahead of of Danny, the same SW windshear the NHC says Danny will encounter sabot approaches the islands.

Edit: and when the NHC talks about steering weaknesses they are referring to mid level troughs not TUTTs, IMO.

Yes I know the difference. But there is no classic TUTT out there right now. Read the latest NHC tropical Atlantic discussion. They always talk about the TUTT when there is one and they don't talk about it right now. A true TUTT extends from the north central Atlantic southwestward towards Florida and then eastward into the tropical central Atlantic. We don't currently have one.

Also, a strong upper level flow of winds at 300 or 200 mb often enhance a TC, not weaken it, because they enhance the upper outflow. Shear is measured through a layer, not just at one altitude. Thus shear we look for that can give a tropical cyclone a severe haircut is usually measured from 850 mb to 200mb or some other less thick layer depending on how "tall" the cyclone is. So a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic or Pacific often gets a strength boost as it first encounters a TUTT to its west. The SW winds initially remove air from the top of the storm and thus help the outflow.

Sorry Pete, but there is currently a TUTT.

Edit: TUTTs may help in cyclonic genesis but they may not help a strengthening tropical cyclone.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the Satellite loop above and following the forward motion of the eye, Danny is definitely moving west-northwest, definitely a more decided north of west the past several hours.

[gatorcane]

All I want to know is WHEN this storm makes it past bad conditions in the Caribbean what does it look like on the other side? Ideal? Okay? Bad? Also, I am talking opinion and model based stuff.

If it makes it to the other side somehow and heads north of the Caribbean on a WNW path, it might find more favorable conditions. The current shear tendency chart is showing a large area of favorable upper-level winds north of the Caribbean. That area has been pretty favorable most of this hurricane season (and last year too).

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the eye may be clearing out soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

[galaxy401]

I may have missed it but was the best track posted yet?

[Hurricaneman]

If this goes towards the northern part of the cone it may have low shear from 65W on westward which if there's something left could be of real concern

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[northjaxpro]

Looks like the eye may be clearing out soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

Yes, the eye is clearing out again. It sure looks impressive tonight and I am wondering if Danny is intensifying again right now?

[ozonepete]

Sorry Pete, but there is currently a TUTT.

Edit: TUTTs may help in cyclonic genesis but they may not help a strengthening tropical cyclone.

You are right. There is a flattened, not very classic TUTT over the Caribbean and central America, but not one over the Atlantic where we are looking. TUTTS are famous for causing TC intensification as the TC first encounters it and the SW flow at 200mb causes evacuation of air over it. So they may not help but they also may help, but they don't kill a TC as the TC first encounters them. That was all I was sayin'.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Looks like the eye may be clearing out soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

Yes, the eye is clearing out again. It sure looks impressive tonight and I am wondering if Danny is intensifying sgain rihht now?

It was stronger than 80 MPH last advisory in my opinion and it is stronger now. NHC underestimating the storm in my opinion. I am no expert or MET though.

[Bocadude85]

Looks like the eye may be clearing out soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

Yes, the eye is clearing out again. It sure looks impressive tonight and I am wondering if Danny is intensifying again right now?

Definitely looks to be strengthening again. The CDO looks nice and symmetrical. I'd say 75-80kts now.

[gatorcane]

Sorry Pete, but there is currently a TUTT.

Edit: TUTTs may help in cyclonic genesis but they may not help a strengthening tropical cyclone.

You are right. There is a flattened, not very classic TUTT over the Caribbean and central America, but not one over the Atlantic where we are looking. TUTTS are famous for causing TC intensification as the TC first encounters it and the SW flow at 200mb causes evacuation of air over it. So they may not help but they also may help, but they don't kill a TC as the TC first encounters them. That was all I was sayin'.

The 18Z GFS simulated satellite shows Danny's convection coverage expands as it encounters the flattened TUTT:

[ozonepete]

It's becoming very symmetrical with a nice circular core formation. Almost always a sign of strengthening.

[bahamaswx]

If he clears out that eye again I'd have a lot of trouble believing it's only a minimal cat 1.

[gatorcane]

If he clears out that eye again I'd have a lot of trouble believing it's only a minimal cat 1.

I agree, it looks like it could be stronger than a CAT 1 the way it looks on IR SAT imagery tonight.

[wjs3]

Sorry Pete, but there is currently a TUTT.

Edit: TUTTs may help in cyclonic genesis but they may not help a strengthening tropical cyclone.

You are right. There is a flattened, not very classic TUTT over the Caribbean and central America, but not one over the Atlantic where we are looking. TUTTS are famous for causing TC intensification as the TC first encounters it and the SW flow at 200mb causes evacuation of air over it. So they may not help but they also may help, but they don't kill a TC as the TC first encounters them. That was all I was sayin'.

For anyone who might be reading who is new to TUTTs:

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... /node/2067

Pete's right. That's not what you would call a classic TUTT.

[ozonepete]

Nice..

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I would give it at least about 75 kts right now. I do think Danny is strengthening again with the eye clearing out and the more symmetric structure of the inner core and the deep convection within it. It is the best appearance overall of Danny to this juncture in my opinion.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-43&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=5

[NDG]

Sorry Pete, but there is currently a TUTT.

Edit: TUTTs may help in cyclonic genesis but they may not help a strengthening tropical cyclone.

You are right. There is a flattened, not very classic TUTT over the Caribbean and central America, but not one over the Atlantic where we are looking. TUTTS are famous for causing TC intensification as the TC first encounters it and the SW flow at 200mb causes evacuation of air over it. So they may not help but they also may help, but they don't kill a TC as the TC first encounters them. That was all I was sayin'.

Yeah, I have seen TUTTs make TWs come to live when they enter the eastern Caribbean. In this case I am thinking that originally Danny may weaken some as it gets closer to the islands due to the windshear but the same windshear may expand its convection coverage, or at least lets hope so that it can bring some relief to the Islands.