ATL: DANNY - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lol to funny but have to agree.

[Bocadude85]

00z Model Guidance



00z Intensity Guidance

The LGEM is maintaining Danny as a hurricane throughout the forecast now. That's a change from 18z and 12z.

[Hurricaneman]

00z Model Guidance



00z Intensity Guidance

The LGEM is maintaining Danny as a hurricane throughout the forecast now. That's a change from 18z and 12z.

it also seems as though some of the more accurate dynamic models weaken this to a minimal TS and restrengthens it after going through the shear zone into favorable conditions north of Puerto Rico which is why Florida and the Bahamas need to keep an eye on this too

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Miami Storm Tracker]

This was why I was asking about this posibility earlier, it seemed everyone for the most part was calling for it to get shredded and be done.

[tolakram]

If you step through the 18Z shear predictions of the GFS (and these are typically horrible) you see that Danny gets tangled up in a couple or 3 or 4 features. Not a smooth road ahead.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015082018&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

[Steve H.]

The road ahead of Danny is rough. The shear to his SW is showing up now in the sat pics.

[blp]

Well one thing is for sure shear forecasts are notoriously difficult to forecast 48hrs in advance let alone 96hrs when this gets shredded. I think we need to see how this plays out but this is certainly not a done deal yet IMO.

[gulf701]

As others have referenced models that take Danny North of the Islands, I too am closely watching the models that are trending North of the islands and how close they come to the NHC projected track.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I thought some of the models would be running by now. Am I wrong on the time or is no one posting them.

[blp]

I thought some of the models would be running by now. Am I wrong on the time or is no one posting them.

Hey Dave, the GFS starts in 15min. The rest come after with Euro last starting around 2am.

[Hurricaneman]

0zGFS initialized well with a 989 low in hi res

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening Brian,

Has been a while have not been at work much lately, thanks for the update will wait on the GFS but crashing after that.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Caneman,

Has the GFS done anything beside the original initialized with the 989.

[Siker]

The GFS weakens this by 9mb by noon tomorrow. Finding that very unlikely at the moment.

[Hurricaneman]

0zGFS is at 1000mb in 36 hrs at about 16.5N 52W shear induced I would guess

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

1003 mb in 48hrs

[Miami Storm Tracker]

so it goes from the 989 down to 1003 in 48 hours guess the sheer is going to hit it good after all.

[Hurricaneman]

so it goes from the 989 down to 1003 in 48 hours guess the sheer is going to hit it good after all.

looks like it on the GFS

ps: 1005mb in 66hrs

[blp]

Looks similar to the 18z so far.

[Hurricaneman]

Diffuse low as it enters the islands