ATL: DANNY - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

If it can hold on then the only question is does it miss any major land taking a more northern track?

[BobHarlem]

It really doesn't matter if it misses the islands north or not, it gets sheared up before it even gets close. Moving north still doesn't escape it from that.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well it was one hell of a run while it lasted great interesting storm to track.

[Hurricaneman]

It really doesn't matter if it misses the islands north or not, it gets sheared up before it even gets close. Moving north still doesn't escape it from that.

no but it has a chance once on the other side of the shear. Remember Andrew in 1992 had a diffuse low due to high shear and once it came out the other side it bombed out so anything could happen from complete dissipation like the models have been advertising to a complete bomb job around the Bahamas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

It really doesn't matter if it misses the islands north or not, it gets sheared up before it even gets close. Moving north still doesn't escape it from that.

Shear is less North of the islands. Land interaction guarantees the low level vorticity would desolve.

[blp]

Vorticity dissipates over Eastern Cuba. Looks a tad south of 18z. More land interaction.

[Hurricaneman]

I cant see it raising 9 mb in 36hrs so maybe the GFS is off the mark, in the run it actually skims Hispaniola to the north then into Cuba and dies so it actually was north at Hispaniola but south farther west with the surface flow so we may have a better idea of intensity and track tomorrow and especially saturday. This may be stronger than initalized due to no recon

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[SouthFloridawx]

Andrew Loop https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4PCfbCDI9o

[ROCK]

The GFS is following the Euro in that Danny gets decapitated in 72 hrs from the TUTT low in front of it. Just a FYI for the newbies, if the latest CMC ( which is always bullish on development) opens up at 120hr it's a good hint it will happen. The Euro has been killing it in almost every run. GFS now catching on...

[ROCK]

oh the days we used to stay up for the 0Z EURO....what fun we had...lol

where is Ivan hater and WX Warrior when you need them?

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; +66hr

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; +102hr

[caneman]

Can you please explain how the Euro has been killing it? I'm pretty sure we won't know til the end which model preformed best with Danny.

[tolakram]

Can you please explain how the Euro has been killing it? I'm pretty sure we won't know til the end which model preformed best with Danny.

Here's a vorticity plot from last nights euro run. First I assume it runs into high shear, then tracks over Puerto Rico and then Hispaniola. In this frame Danny is right on top of PR.



source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2015082100&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=211

[tolakram]

The 6Z GFS follows an almost identical track, again a vorticity chart showing Danny just prior to running over PR and then Hispaniola.



source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2015082106&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=211

[caneman]

So, is it fair to say they've performed equally as well thus far? Euro loses it right? Gfs and gfdl not so much? Just curious. It seems to me we won't know until later intensity wise, which if any model performed well?

[tolakram]

So, is it fair to say they've performed equally as well thus far? Euro loses it right? Gfs and gfdl not so much? Just curious. It seems to me we won't know until later intensity wise, which if any model performed well?

The Euro has continually shown the better track except for a very early run. The GFS has Danny north of the islands and blowing up into a strong hurricane but has now come back south as the euro has come a little north. Once again a blended track has served the NHC well while intensity is something none of the models is really that good at.

Euro run for Aug 16th: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2015081612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Aug 18th: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2015081812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Those are time sensitive links. The euro was too far south (typical left bias) but generally had what appears to be the right idea days ago.

GFS run from the 19th showed Danny maintaining decent strength and moving further north.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Blend those two together and you end up with a pretty good track, but still no idea about intensity.

But yes, we will have to wait it out to see exactly what happens.

[tolakram]

Tropical Tidbits has older runs saved.

Here's the GFS from August 16th showing nothing much coming from Danny.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015081612&fh=276&xpos=0&ypos=211

On the 19th the GFS had Danny as a Hurricane off the east coast and wandering around.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015081912&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=211

This entire time the Euro was fairly consistent. Still not accurate, but with a track generally closer to reality than the GFS which was all over the place.

Point is, we don't have to guess, numerous sites can be used to compare older model runs, Tropical Tidbits being the best free site out there at the moment, IMO.

[caneman]

Sounds about right and what I was thinking. The gfs seems right on intensity wise, I know has backed of some now. Track wise we dont qute know yet.Thanks for verificaton links. Just wanted to cut through any hyperbole. I always prefer a blend as well.

[toad strangler]

The GFDL is one tropical model that suggests missing the entire shredder chain to the N and shows Danny re-gaining strength @ 126