ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Siker]

Levi Cowan tweeted this link to a hi-res 1 minute floater for Danny:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... eight=1000

[WPBWeather]

Thinking Danny may find a more favorable environment nearing the Bahamas especially if stays over water as models keep trending. GFDL showing just that this morning but we shall see. I expect more northward shifts to nhc track.

I agree with you. Danny has stayed three steps ahead of our forecasting system, which I guess shows that there are limits on what we can say we know about weather.

[Sanibel]

Shear starting to warm tops.


GFDL track is scary.

[TheStormExpert]

Thinking Danny may find a more favorable environment nearing the Bahamas especially if stays over water as models keep trending. GFDL showing just that this morning but we shall see. I expect more northward shifts to nhc track.

Not to mention the GFDL is the less bullish usually of the two hurricane models.

[tolakram]

Levi Cowan tweeted this link to a hi-res 1 minute floater for Danny:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... eight=1000

Wow, thanks for posting that!

Looks like shear is effecting Danny a bit, eye is now on the SW side of the strongest convection. I wish that plane had made it in earlier.

[alienstorm]

There is some shear commencing but this storm is very interesting and how much it has fought off and earlier this morning it reminded me of a little buzzsaw.

[Frank2]

Let's not forget that the system might do a recurve into the trough, even though it's forecast to move northward - usually the recurve is the most likely outcome.

And, the considerable shear and it's small size might result in the center "popping out" - once that happens, as we know a cyclone usually never is the same (or as they used to say at the NHC, a spinning top never spins as well again once it's spin is disturbed)...

Frank

[Bocadude85]

There is some shear commencing but this storm is very interesting and how much it has fought off and earlier this morning it reminded me of a little buzzsaw.

I agree it does look like the shear is starting in already. I guess we will never know the true intensity of Danny. My guess is he peaked at 105kts this morning.

[Nederlander]

He is definitely approaching the shear..

[cycloneye]

The strongest Danny is here.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 10m10 minutes ago
Danny is now Cat. 2 (90 kts). It is stronger than any of the 5 previous versions of Danny - breaking the record of 80 kts set by 1985 Danny

[Sanibel]

I don't remember too many pin hole eyes that were only category 2. There probably was a rapid intensification.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like some dry air may have gotten entrained. I see many arc clouds propagating away from the storm on the west side.

[MGC]

105MPH might be a bit low IMO. Danny still has 12-18 hours before the shear really begins to weaken Danny. Until then I would expect some additional intensification and Danny could reach Cat-3. Track shift north is a bit concerning......MGC

[Bocadude85]

Looks like some dry air may have gotten entrained. I see many arc clouds propagating away from the storm on the west side.

Is that what is causing the flattened look to the CDO?

[Blown Away]

Danny is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear.
However, it is about to encounter increasing upper-level
southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the northeastern
Caribbean, with the shear forecast to increase to over 20 kt by 96
hours. This, combined with the abundant dry air remaining along the
forecast track, should cause Danny to weaken below hurricane
strength as it approaches the Caribbean islands. The new intensity
forecast is a little stronger than the intensity consensus through
96 hours. After that, it is weaker than most of the guidance due
to the expected interaction with land.

What happens if Danny's track slides a little more north of the big islands??

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z GFS is getting ready to roll...Important to watch to see if it slides further north.

SFT

[Blown Away]

NHC's 5 day track inching north with each advisory... Now skirting the north coast of Hispaniola... Only take a 30 mile north adjustment to miss PR and Hispaniola and then we can see if Danny will recover any after moving through the dry air/shear wall...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Rail Dawg]

Been doing this for over 30 years.

While we are light-years ahead in the technology Danny is showing us once again what we don't know.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like some dry air may have gotten entrained. I see many arc clouds propagating away from the storm on the west side.

Is that what is causing the flattened look to the CDO?

Probably that in combination with wind shear starting to increase. Beginning to see a more asymmetrical look.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-rbtop-long.html

Another increase in convection around the eye. He is trying to show off for recon.