ATL: DANNY - Models

[BigB0882]

Did it really initialize it at 1008 or is that first point just the next point, which doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, the end of the run has a pretty sharp turn West. That peeks my interest.

[TheStormExpert]

Did it really initialize it at 1008 or is that first point just the next point, which doesn't make much sense to me.

Either way, the end of the run has a pretty sharp turn West. That peeks my interest.

That's the Mid-Surface Level Pressure. Since it's a small storm initialization may be off.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at those intensity models I think it is very important to note that they show weakening through approximately 84 hours and then after that they start ticking upwards again. With Danny's core very well established I think he could easily rebound from the shear, assuming he stays north of the big islands.

SFT

[jlauderdal]

Looking at those intensity models I think it is very important to note that they show weakening through approximately 84 hours and then after that they start ticking upwards again. With Danny's core very well established I think he could easily rebound from the shear, assuming he stays north of the big islands.

SFT

small compact system...very tough to maintain itself in hostile conditions...time will tell if it makes it much farther than PR as a closed surface system

[Sanibel]

How could you get 1013 at the end of an above-island track???

[SouthFLTropics]

How could you get 1013 at the end of an above-island track???

Please clarify...which model and run are you talking about?

SFT

[Bocadude85]

How could you get 1013 at the end of an above-island track???

Please clarify...which model and run are you talking about?

SFT

I believe he is referring to the 12z GFS ensembles posted above.

[Steve H.]

Think the Operational 12Z GFS can be tossed into the can. Doesn't look like it initialized well IMHO. Funny thing is, I thought the GFDL uses the GFS runs as source data?

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS kills Danny off as he enters the islands. Perhaps Danny's small core just wont be able to survive the shear and dry air.

[N2FSU]

Think the Operational 12Z GFS can be tossed into the can. Doesn't look like it initialized well IMHO. Funny thing is, I thought the GFDL uses the GFS runs as source data?

The ol' "garbage in= garbage out"?

[Siker]

HWRF 7mb / 17 kts stronger than the 06z by 54 hours.

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF AT 12Z much further north than nhc track

[SouthFLTropics]

I got to be honest I've been pretty impressed with the HWRF's handling of this system. A few days back it showed a strong system here and everyone disregarded it and now recon is finding possible Cat 3 winds. Maybe the HWRF was on to something.

[tolakram]

I got to be honest I've been pretty impressed with the HWRF's handling of this system. A few days back it showed a strong system here and everyone disregarded it and now recon is finding possible Cat 3 winds. Maybe the HWRF was on to something.

Likewise. I called the HWRF crazy and wrong.

[stormlover2013]

guys HWRF and GFDL are realllly bad lol, they might get luck every once in a while but they aren't good with upper level and the overall pattern and etc

[tolakram]

guys HWRF and GFDL are realllly bad lol, they might get luck every once in a while but they aren't good with upper level and the overall pattern and etc

HWRF is going through continuous upgrades so when it becomes less bad is always an unknown.

[toad strangler]

What are you people talking about, the HWRF in recent times has been the hottest tropical model.

[Steve]

If you follow the GFS 12Z, after dissipating, the remnants sort of head toward Florida as a ripple in the isobars. Could bring some rain to the SE or certainly if it the energy intersected with some type of remnant frontal energy or a piece of a left behind trough, you have the potential for something minor. Not calling that FWIW, just bringing it to light.

[SFLcane]

guys HWRF and GFDL are realllly bad lol, they might get luck every once in a while but they aren't good with upper level and the overall pattern and etc

HWRF has done really well...remember when it first showed danny as a major hurricane? There you have it.

[N2FSU]

Question: does anyone expect any significant changes to the models in track/intensity once this data is input? Or do you think they continue to show Danny's demise around P.R. or the Dominican with no threat to the U.S.?