WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Kilo is barely a tropical cyclone. Recon found 10 knot westerly winds and 35 FL 30 knt SFMR far from the center. I guess we can call this is a TC, but this is worse than 11E.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Kiko is barely a tropical cyclone. Recon found 10 knot westerly winds and 35 FL 30 knt SFMR far from the center. I guess we can call this is a TC, but this is worse than 11E.
GFS keep this weak until 96 hours in. Further west of Hawaii.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:GFS starts a turn at around day 5.
Stalls it for 36 hours.
Troughing isn't the question for the GFS at all compared to the Euro. Just storm strength.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 27
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
It's very premature to say that the threat may soon be over when Kilo was forecast to struggle initially. Mid-level winds should abate over the next 24-36 hours as the cyclone moves west-northwest. Thereafter, a combination of light shear, warm ocean temperatures, and adequate mid-level moisture should favor steady to quick intensification. I think the HWRF has the future evolution of Kilo nailed, showing the cyclone broad and disorganized through 36 hours but substantial intensification thereafter. Residents in the westernmost Hawaiian Islands should be closely monitoring the system.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15980
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Kingarabian wrote:00z GFS ridge builds back and sends it west.
Don't understand why.
I know right? It's wide open and strong enough.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: CPAC: KILO - Tropical Depression
Once Kilo gets above 15N it appears shear relaxes and I would not be surprised to see convection develop around the eastern semicircle. Frankly I thought is was a little atypically bullish for the CPHC to upgrade this mess this morning when we could see the low level circulation center was exposed to the E of the deep convection. Let's see what the night and tomorrow bring before raising the 'all clear' flag for Hawaii.
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: CPAC: KILO - Tropical Depression

18z HWRF
Also, if the storm goes west, this will be very fun to track.

0 likes
Re: CPAC: KILO - Tropical Depression

Thanks for posting these all the time. One question that has bugged me about all these charts: Why do the pressures for the systems not appear to line up with the wind speed estimates? For example, the HWRF chart shows Kilo with a MSLP of 943...yet the maximum wind speed is listed at only 77 knots. I thought a min pressure reading of 943 equals a category 4 hurricane at least. What am i missing?
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: CPAC: KILO - Tropical Depression
cane2cane wrote::uarrow:
Thanks for posting these all the time. One question that has bugged me about all these charts: Why do the pressures for the systems not appear to line up with the wind speed estimates? For example, the HWRF chart shows Kilo with a MSLP of 943...yet the maximum wind speed is listed at only 77 knots. I thought a min pressure reading of 943 equals a category 4 hurricane at least. What am i missing?
Models wind speeds just plain don't match up with the winds. They don't have the ability to do so.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
ECMWF through 6 days. Seems to have this moving NW due to a trough to the NW that is ex-Atsani.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests