My final Isabel forecast (11 PM Wednesday)

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JetMaxx

My final Isabel forecast (11 PM Wednesday)

#1 Postby JetMaxx » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:25 pm

Current:

THU SEP 18
1 AM EST...32.3N - 74.3W....90 KTS



Forecast:

THU SEP 18

7 AM EST...33.7N - 75.2W....95 KTS (100 miles south of Cape Hatteras)

11 AM EST..34.9N - 76.2W...105 KTS (landfall near Ocracoke and Cedar Island, NC)

7 PM EST...36.5n - 77.5w....75 KTS (inland near Roanoke Rapids, NC)



FRI SEP 19

7 AM EST...39.5N - 79.0W....50 KTS (near Frostburg, MD)

7 PM EST...45.0N - 77.0W....45 KTS/ EXTRATROPICAL (near Pembroke, Ontario)
Last edited by JetMaxx on Thu Sep 18, 2003 1:04 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 17, 2003 9:34 pm

We'll see about 105kts. Recon now finds winds 25 kts lower than this afternoon. That convection can't hold near the center well. Dry air is really a problem. The cooler air near the surface is also likely preventing stronger winds from translating down to the surface. So the current 97kts at 10,000 ft may indicate no more than 80kts at the surface - Cat 1. The water may be warm, but other factors appear to outweigh that. I'd expect maybe 80-85 kts at landfall.
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#3 Postby summerwx » Wed Sep 17, 2003 10:28 pm

Give it up Jettmaxx. It's not going to happen. Isabel is barely a hurricane tonight; and I doubt seruiosly it will be at landfall.
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#4 Postby Lindaloo » Wed Sep 17, 2003 10:40 pm

Great analysis Perry!!! The dry air has not reached her yet IMO.
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#5 Postby WEATHER53 » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:05 pm

About 3 or 4 of you have been killing this thing off for last 24 hours and it still has not happened. If right, you are very good, if wrong you have been a disservice.
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barely a cane?

#6 Postby Anonymous » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:23 pm

summerwx wrote:Give it up Jettmaxx. It's not going to happen. Isabel is barely a hurricane tonight; and I doubt seruiosly it will be at landfall.


Isabel is definetly a hurricane -- at least a cat 2 and will likely make landfall as a cat 2. It is a dangerous system that will have a big impact because of the widespread winds and rains and because of the large population centers it will encounter.
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#7 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:41 pm

WEATHER53 wrote:About 3 or 4 of you have been killing this thing off for last 24 hours and it still has not happened. If right, you are very good, if wrong you have been a disservice.


Please tell me how these people have been a disservice. They have been stating their opinions and supporting them to the best of their abilities. i do not consider that a disservice. They may not be "right" in the end but they have given us another factor to consider.

Where are your predictions if they are so wrong?
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#8 Postby JQ Public » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:52 pm

looks like she is getting a tighter circulation now. More of a dense central overcast?
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:52 pm

I agree with JetMaxx... and my forecast intensity REMAINS AT 115 MPH at landfall ... irregardless, warnings are issued and preparations should have been made as if Isabel were to be a CAT 3 anyway, IMO.

Convection has now wrapped all the way around the center. RECON found a slight drop (1 mb) at 955mb, and a circular 30 NM eye... although open S-SW and the winds are up at flight level to 109 kts. and that's a remarked comeback from the 98 kts they found the last two RECON fixes.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... geir4.html

URNT12 KNHC 180401
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/0400Z
B. 32 DEG 06 MIN N
73 DEG 55 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2703 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 137 DEG 109 KT
G. 043 DEG 050 NM
H. 955 MB
I. 14 C/ 3068 M
J. 16 C/ 3081 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-SW
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. .1 /1 NM
P. AF977 2313A ISABEL OB 23
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 0346Z.
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:54 pm

WEATHER53 wrote:About 3 or 4 of you have been killing this thing off for last 24 hours and it still has not happened. If right, you are very good, if wrong you have been a disservice.


You haven't taken the time to read through all the posts. Heck, I haven't been able to either ...

SF
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#11 Postby JQ Public » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:54 pm

y did you delete it jetmax????
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#12 Postby WEATHER53 » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:55 pm

It is a disservice in the face of a lethal hurricane to once again issue yet another statement that is in essence "this storm is dying" after having already proffered the same position some 24 hours ago which at that time, and again at this time, flew in the face of virtually all other assessments and proved to be wrong then and will likely prove to be wrong now. As stated, all of that added up is a disservice.
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#13 Postby JetMaxx » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:56 pm

There....I erased the darn thing. Now maybe everyone will be happy...
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#14 Postby JQ Public » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:57 pm

no don't ever be ashamed of what you say. don't let other people knock ya down perry!
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#15 Postby weatherluvr » Wed Sep 17, 2003 11:59 pm

Perry, don't let those that disagree with you get to you. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and I, along with many posters here, have great respect for yours. Don't feel like you have to change things just to silence a few dissidents!
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#16 Postby WEATHER53 » Thu Sep 18, 2003 12:00 am

Jett-I hope it was clear that I was supportive of your assessments and was counter to the two or three that had Isabel dead and buried at this time last night and are at it again right now.
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#17 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 18, 2003 12:04 am

Perry, I don't think WEATHER53 was directing his comments at you ...
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#18 Postby ncbird » Thu Sep 18, 2003 12:06 am

I am really a newbie to this board and came here because my daughter told me what a friendly family style board this was. Everyone was free to post regardless if they were amature or pro without worry of being bashed or made feel stupid for what they say. Things have been heated throughout the day and now this delete. I for one think it is really a shame when anyone should be made to feel like they need to do this.

Jetmaxx for what it is worth, I for one have found your post very informative and have enjoyed them. Please don't let others get to you

ncbird
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My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just ramblings of an old Grandma who loves tropical storms, and are not backed by any type of sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#19 Postby JetMaxx » Thu Sep 18, 2003 12:08 am

It's okay....it was two emails this evening that are the reason I erased it. I know WEATHER53 didn't intend his comments toward me.
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#20 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Sep 18, 2003 12:09 am

JetMaxx wrote:It's okay....it was two emails this evening that are the reason I erased it. I know WEATHER53 didn't intend his comments toward me.


Cool ... FWIW, I agree with your intensity forecast 100% ...
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