ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

based upon how it looks now, I think it's going to fall apart faster than predicted.

who know let see what happen

[Weatherlover12]

based upon how it looks now, I think it's going to fall apart faster than predicted.

Let's see what happens first before we go making judgements! -Weatherlover12

[SouthFLTropics]

The shear is definitely doing a number on Danny but he sure is a fighter. Popping red convection around the center on latest IR.

[HurriGuy]

Hopefully recon paints a better picture if he is going to survive.

[tropicwatch]

Convection is rebuilding now.

[northjaxpro]

The new convective burst for Danny as SouthFLTropics was alluding to in the above post.

[tailgater]

SW shear is hampering intensification somewhat. but a large gulp of dry /stable air is what is really killing it. IMHO. If it wasn't for that tap root down into the ITCZ I think we would looking at nakid Danny.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, he is fighting the shear and dry air for sure tailgater no doubt. But he is holding up rather decent imo because the inner core still has yet to be really disrupted by those inhibiting factors. I expect that some deterioration of the inner core structure to happen, but it hasn't just yet.

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase. To be honest, I don't see it getting it will a lot of shear yet.

[northjaxpro]

Danny developed a very tightly compacted inner core which really helped it intensify rapidly into a Cat 3 major tropical cyclone. Right now, its inner core is doing a commendable job of walling off the shear and dry air from penetrating into it. This tiny hurricane is one in which I will really study in post analysis. It has been a remarkable storm to monitor while not being a threat to anyone YET thankfully!

But, we are not done dealing with Danny yet for sure and I see now NHC has posted the watches now for the Islands.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Is there a chance Danny retains hurricane strength all the way to the Bahamas? Any pro mets and storm watchers want to weigh in?

[AutoPenalti]

Is there a chance Danny retains hurricane strength all the way to the Bahamas? Any pro mets and storm watchers want to weigh in?

IMO anything can happen, it's just a matter of wait and see. It's so compact that it can shear away in a matter of seconds or it can hold off all the shear and dry air by maintaining it's tight core.

I'd wager 50/50 at this point.

[northjaxpro]

No, I think Danny will suffer weakening as the shear and dry air will take a gradual toll on the cyclone the next 3 days or so. But, the rate of the weakening may not be as severe as many may have thought imo. However, Danny's inner core is so well developed in that if it can survive and stay intact enough by the time it reaches near the NE Caribbean, then we will see how things will be at that time. It is still possible Danny may miss the Islands to the north and if that happens with a decent core in place moving into a better environment, then we may be looking at a new ball game. But, I don't want to get that far ahead right now.

[NDG]

Recon finds a much weaker Danny.

[wxman57]

Danny's center appears to be nearly exposed to the west of the convection. Doesn't appear to be a hurricane any longer. Small storms weaken fast, too. Looks like recon is finding a surface pressure up to 990mb.

[tolakram]

Lots of predictions but no disclaimers. Friendly reminder that if you make a prediction you must use the S2K disclaimer. You can place this disclaimer in your signature if you want.

The disclaimer can be found at the top of the page. Only pro-mets (blue name tags) are exempt from the disclaimer rule. Thanks.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Here's a visible satellite with the center in the red crosshairs (as found by recon). It's sure a different picture than yesterday.

[northjaxpro]

You can see on the visible imagery the dry air and southwest shear gradually deteriorating the outer northwestern/western periphery of the cyclone and these inhibiting factors are definitely trying to penetrate the core.

[HurriGuy]

Barely a hurricane according to recon -----> 77mph at the surface (peak 10 second average)

[Hammy]

I think this still may be a hurricane, they flew through the SW and SE quadrants and still found 60kt surface winds in the latter.