ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

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HurriGuy
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Re:

#1441 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:42 pm

Hammy wrote:I think this still may be a hurricane, they flew through the SW and SE quadrants and still found 60kt surface winds in the latter.



Yep. Some observation is the mid 60's (knots).
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#1442 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:42 pm

Increasing numbers for Hurricane Danny. Surely a recon is maybe better than Dvorak numbers.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1745 UTC 16.0N 52.4W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
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#1443 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:43 pm

Seems as though dry air is becoming a problem according to recon with this first pass.
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Re:

#1444 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:48 pm

HurriGuy wrote:Barely a hurricane according to recon -----> 77mph at the surface (peak 10 second average)


That was a rain-contaminated SFMR report, which isn't a good representation of the 1-min average winds. Winds in the 50-60 kt range (60kts may be generous) in squalls east of the center now. Eyewall has collapsed.

Image
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#1445 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:51 pm

Side note: 12Z Euro bombs out the system that rolled off Africa down to 961MB by hour 216 as it possibly threatens Bermuda on a recurve. Thread:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117456&hilit=
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1446 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:53 pm

Vortex message has pressure up to 996mb.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1447 Postby wxsouth » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:Vortex message has pressure up to 996mb.


With a 60kt surface wind. Actual center pressure probably closer to 990-992mb.
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#1448 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 1:56 pm

Could it be gone in a day?
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1449 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:02 pm

wxsouth wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Vortex message has pressure up to 996mb.


With a 60kt surface wind. Actual center pressure probably closer to 990-992mb.


I did see a 989.9mb reading a little while ago. Surface winds probably 60kts max. NHC may keep it a hurricane for one more advisory in case it recovers. They don't like to go back and forth from hurricane to TS to hurricane, etc.
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#1450 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:37 pm

Best Track
Still a cat 1 cane...

AL, 04, 2015082218, , BEST, 0, 157N, 527W, 70, 990, HU
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1451 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:07 pm

I'll be surprised if gets down 995mb on this pass
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1452 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:13 pm

Per Recon's latest pass Danny continuous to weaken, they do not find hurricane force winds.
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1453 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:16 pm

tailgater wrote:I'll be surprised if gets down 995mb on this pass

why you think that?NDG think not hurr
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#1454 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:17 pm

rec report pressure at 998
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1455 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:23 pm

Well color me surprised. 994mb with surface winds at 61mph.
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Re:

#1456 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:25 pm

Gustywind wrote:Increasing numbers for Hurricane Danny. Surely a recon is maybe better than Dvorak numbers.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1745 UTC 16.0N 52.4W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY

what this mean?? their finding weaker system?
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Re: Re:

#1457 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:31 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Increasing numbers for Hurricane Danny. Surely a recon is maybe better than Dvorak numbers.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1745 UTC 16.0N 52.4W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY

what this mean?? their finding weaker system?


The Dvorak numbers went up a little on one calculation. Went from 3.5 at 1200 UTC to 4.0 at 1800 UTC. So Gusty's just saying it's interesting that one Dvorak calculation showed a little strengthening while RECON is finding weakening.
I would add, though, that actually the satellite presentation (which Dvorak bases on) did improve a little during that time since a large convective burst started up...
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Re: ATL: DANNY - Hurricane- Discussion

#1458 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:33 pm

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Re: Re:

#1459 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:33 pm

ozonepete wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Increasing numbers for Hurricane Danny. Surely a recon is maybe better than Dvorak numbers.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1745 UTC 16.0N 52.4W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
19/2345 UTC 11.9N 42.3W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
19/1745 UTC 11.6N 41.4W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/1145 UTC 11.0N 40.6W T2.5/2.5 DANNY
19/0545 UTC 11.3N 39.2W T2.5/2.5 DANNY

what this mean?? their finding weaker system?


The Dvorak numbers went up a little on one calculation. Went from 3.5 at 1200 UTC to 4.0 at 1800 UTC. So Gusty's just saying it's interesting that one Dvorak calculation showed a little strengthening while RECON is finding weakening.
I would add, though, that actually the satellite presentation (which Dvorak bases on) did improve a little during that time since a large convective burst started up...

Thanks :) you're right i can't say nothing more.
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#1460 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:33 pm

Image

For the first time today, it appears that the shear and dry air are finally beginning to intrude into the core of Danny. The last couple of frames on the visible imagery appear to show Danny's center almost becoming completely exposed as the convection around the center is now being sheared off(displaced to the east/northeast) This may be the beginning of an accelerated weakening of Danny now that the inner core is being disrupted.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Aug 22, 2015 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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