ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

And not unexpected.

[northjaxpro]

Oh yeah, definitely not unexpected ozonepete. It just took a bit longer than anticipated for the inhibiting factors to finally get into the inner core.

[ozonepete]

So far things are playing out nicely for the islands. They won't get a strong storm but could get some much needed rain, especially PR. The problem is they will be on the southern side of Danny which might not be as wet, not to mention if it remains fairly small and passes north they could get very little rain after all.

[HurriGuy]

Anyone have an estimate of how much longer in the sheer?

[SouthFloridian92]

What a difference a day makes!

[Gustywind]

So far things are playing out nicely for the islands. They won't get a strong storm but could get some much needed rain, especially PR. The problem is they will be on the southern side of Danny which might not be as wet, not to mention if it remains fairly small and passes north they could get very little rain after all.

Thanks for you input we will see. We're really deshydrated and it's an euphemisma to say that. Hope that we get a least some rain from that system...

[Nederlander]

Anyone have an estimate of how much longer in the sheer?

Depends on track and forward speed. Probably the next couple of days based on the current forecast track. And it's only going to get worse. It's facing 20+kts right now and headed toward 30+kts.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NCSTORMMAN]

This storm is about to die. Nothing survives in the Atlantic not even "Rocky Balboa".

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 222041
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT DANNY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and
Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the U. S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
Danny. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions
of these areas tonight or Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

[NDG]

The El Niño tells Danny he's in control of the Caribbean

http://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8

[johngaltfla]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 222041
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT DANNY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and
Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the U. S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
Danny. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions
of these areas tonight or Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

How do you have 991 mb when recon had 999 mb?

This makes no sense and Joe Bastardi is going nuts on Twitter over this. This is a strong TS I suspect and appears to be in a very hostile environment.

Just my opinion after reading the data, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts, etc, etc.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFloridawx]

It looks like the Mid Level Circulation has decoupled from the Low Level Circulation.

[wxman57]

No way Danny is a hurricane now. That's pretty clear. NHC will downgrade on the next advisory if Danny doesn't make a come-back. Last vortex message had pressure up to 999mb. Center clearly visible west of a small area of convection.

[floridasun78]

The El Niño tells Danny he's in control of the Caribbean

http://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8

that good video funny

[ozonepete]

The El Niño tells Danny he's in control of the Caribbean

http://youtu.be/IvmeUStFvz8

? But it's not in the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

How do you have 991 mb when recon had 999 mb?

This makes no sense and Joe Bastardi is going nuts on Twitter over this. This is a strong TS I suspect and appears to be in a very hostile environment.

Just my opinion after reading the data, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts, etc, etc.

I know the forecasters at the NHC. I'm sure that they can see from the recon data that Danny is a tropical storm. That 991 pressure was from an earlier recon pass, when the NHC forecaster was typing up the advisory. The new data came in too late for inclusion in the last advisory. The forecasters at the NHC are being a bit cautious, in case Danny suddenly finds some more favorable conditions and regains hurricane strength prior to their next advisory. They want to observe Danny for a few more hours to make sure that's not going to happen. They'd rather call it a hurricane now (even though they can see it's not a hurricane) than drop it to a tropical storm and have to upgrade it again a few hours later. They don't like to "windshield-wiper" in their track forecasts or with their classification of a system. Unless satellite indicates a dramatic return of convection around Danny's center then I expect a downgrade on their intermediate public advisory in a couple of hours. Certainly by the next full advisory.

[tolakram]

How do you have 991 mb when recon had 999 mb?

This makes no sense and Joe Bastardi is going nuts on Twitter over this. This is a strong TS I suspect and appears to be in a very hostile environment.

Just my opinion after reading the data, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts, etc, etc.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

When does Bastardi not go nuts on twitter?

I think their discussion summed it up, the drops were in the mid level center but the system was so tilted they ended up hitting the water well outside of the low level center. Sometimes Bastardi's criticisms are way over the top IMO.

From the discussion:

The aircraft
data indicate that the center of Danny is tilted to the north or
northeast with height, as dropsondes released at the calm
flight-level center have consistently reported 50-60 kt easterly
surface winds. In addition, satellite imagery suggests that the
center is now at the southwestern edge of the convection. These
observations are likely due to ongoing southwesterly vertical wind
shear.

[tailgater]

No way Danny is a hurricane now. That's pretty clear. NHC will downgrade on the next advisory if Danny doesn't make a come-back. Last vortex message had pressure up to 999mb. Center clearly visible west of a small area of convection.

I think that VDM was from the 700mb range surface center was SW of there. Correct me if I'm wrong but is the way I saw it.


beat me to it.

[ozonepete]

How do you have 991 mb when recon had 999 mb?

This makes no sense and Joe Bastardi is going nuts on Twitter over this. This is a strong TS I suspect and appears to be in a very hostile environment.

Just my opinion after reading the data, please refer to the NHC for official forecasts, etc, etc.

I know the forecasters at the NHC. I'm sure that they can see from the recon data that Danny is a tropical storm. That 991 pressure was from an earlier recon pass, when the NHC forecaster was typing up the advisory. The new data came in too late for inclusion in the last advisory. The forecasters at the NHC are being a bit cautious, in case Danny suddenly finds some more favorable conditions and regains hurricane strength prior to their next advisory. They want to observe Danny for a few more hours to make sure that's not going to happen. They'd rather call it a hurricane now (even though they can see it's not a hurricane) than drop it to a tropical storm and have to upgrade it again a few hours later. They don't like to "windshield-wiper" in their track forecasts or with their classification of a system. Unless satellite indicates a dramatic return of convection around Danny's center then I expect a downgrade on their intermediate public advisory in a couple of hours. Certainly by the next full advisory.

Thanks wxman for a nice, scientific, well-said and sane explanation.

[blp]

It is getting close to being exposed.