ATL: DANNY - Models

[WPBWeather]

Nope even the remants recurve well east of Florida suggesting big-time troughing over the Eastern United States. That same trough lingers around and picks up the wave behind Danny too sending it on a recurve (though too early to know for sure if the wave behind Danny will definitely recurve or not).[/quote]

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fxus62.KMFL.html

LONG TERM (TUES-SAT)

MID AND UPPER TROUGH TAKES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NE FL OR SE GA
WED AND THURS. IN RESPONSE, H5 TEMPS WILL COOL AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SO STORMS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WHAT
WE'VE EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS FOR A
WHILE, SUCH THAT SURFACE FLOW DOES NOT VEER TO THE SW UNTIL LATE
WEEK, AND THEN PERHAPS ONLY BRIEFLY.[/quote]
so trough or no trough?

[AutoPenalti]

And just like that the Semi-Permanent East Coast Trough is back. What a surprise.

What does that mean exactly?

[NCSTORMMAN]

And just like that the Semi-Permanent East Coast Trough is back. What a surprise.

What does that mean exactly?

That magic trough is coming through to scoop up Danny and his buddies the rest of the season out to sea. The US has been extra lucky lately. In El Nino seasons and not in El Nino seasons. A very good thing no doubt. I still think that lack of tropical moisture we usually get though is causing the droughts going on in the Carolinas and deep south.

[TheStormExpert]

18z Guidance trending fishy!


18z Model Guidance



18z Intensity Guidance

[TheStormExpert]

And just like that the Semi-Permanent East Coast Trough is back. What a surprise.

What does that mean exactly?

That magic trough is coming through to scoop up Danny and his buddies the rest of the season out to sea. The US has been extra lucky lately. In El Nino seasons and not in El Nino seasons. A very good thing no doubt. I still think that lack of tropical moisture we usually get though is causing the droughts going on in the Carolinas and deep south.

Not saying I want a U.S. threat at all, just find it always weird how the trough arrives in time to recurve these storms/hurricane. Unfortunately I would think our luck will run out one of these years.

[NCSTORMMAN]

It is just magical. First time in recorded weather history a length of time like this in the US without a major making landfall. It is weird to say the least but of course a very very good thing.

[AutoPenalti]

Or just a pure extreme coincidence.

[hurricaneCW]

Extremely premature posts about the weather pattern over a week from now. And yes Danny may not even exist anyway.

[jlauderdal]

Extremely premature posts about the weather pattern over a week from now. And yes Danny may not even exist anyway.

we discuss patterns 7 days out frequently...whats the prob with that? we also know the farther out in time the greater the error but as far as troughs and ridges at 7 days those are fairly easy to identify...the issue at 7 days is nailing down a hurricane location within 300 miles..that's different then overall pattern recognition

[TheStormExpert]

Extremely premature posts about the weather pattern over a week from now. And yes Danny may not even exist anyway.

How is it extremely premature when you have both now the GFS and Euro showing a deep trough 5-7 days out draped along the U.S. East Coast? I know models could change but this has been the normal pattern it seems for at least 6 years now it seems.

[hurricaneCW]

There's nothing wrong with discussing the upcoming pattern but a lot of absolutes are being thrown out. Sometimes it can get as ridiculous as that massive tracking map for Danny spanning the entire western Atlantic.

And troughing has greatly underperformed so far in the east. However we are seeing a NAO flip though correlations are still weak given its August.

[SeGaBob]

This is a pretty much a guaranteed recurve scenario, and probably the system behind it will do the same thing. Once the models start hinting at a recurve, they always find a way to turn. (I know it could change but it usually doesn't)
It's kind of depressing when you need rain.





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[CourierPR]

There's nothing wrong with discussing the upcoming pattern but a lot of absolutes are being thrown out. Sometimes it can get as ridiculous as that massive tracking map for Danny spanning the entire western Atlantic.

And troughing has greatly underperformed so far in the east. However we are seeing a NAO flip though correlations are still weak given its August.

Weren't those very same models showing strong ridging a few days ago?

[hurricaneCW]

Weren't those very same models showing strong ridging a few days ago?[/quote]

I believe they did partially. There were some notable difference between the gfs and euro however. In my opinion, Danny may not even survive; it's already falling apart quickly. It's the next wave that might be a bigger player down the line.

[jlauderdal]

Weren't those very same models showing strong ridging a few days ago?

I believe they did partially. There were some notable difference between the gfs and euro however. In my opinion, Danny may not even survive; it's already falling apart quickly. It's the next wave that might be a bigger player down the line.[/quote]

the next one recurves too..troughing in play..god for sofla..we need the tstorms heading our direction instead of west coast..havent heard thunder here in over 10 days

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS takes whatever is left of Danny into the FL straits this run instead of recurving the remnants east of Florida. Seems to have shifted more to the left and showing a stronger 700MB ridge than the 12Z. But there is a ton of shear waiting for Danny over the FL Straits and Florida should he get any ideas!

[TheStormExpert]

18Z GFS takes whatever is left of Danny into the FL straits this run instead of recurving the remnants east of Florida. Seems to have shifted more to the left and showing a stronger 700MB ridge than the 12Z. But there is a ton of shear waiting for Danny over the FL Straits and Florida should he get any ideas!

What about in the Bahamas region?

[tolakram]

18Z GFS takes vorticity over Cuba and dissipates it. Similar to an older run.

The little patch of yellow on the NW coast of Cuba is all that's left. Long range, unreliable, for what it's worth.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Track Guidance



00z Intensity Guidance

[YoshiMike]

Lol one of the models has it going back up to category 4 a lot of the models have it restrengthening just a little bit but by the looks of how things are going currently I don't think that may happen in my own personal opinion