ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

I Have the feeling

Feeling or not...
Let's wait and see if this is confirmed OURAGAN. If the trend more South is confirmed, the authorities have to be very quick today. Our pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe said that the level of vigilance could be up at 8AM meaning orange code cyclone.
That means that Guadeloupe the winds could be a concern of us. Stayed tuned.

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 231157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
800 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected, in this case within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the U. S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
Danny. Additional watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 56.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[Frank2]

Certainly appears to be moving more westward than northward - good circulation still, but also sheared. It seems the NHC forecast is more likely now (I hope)...

[tailgater]

Looking a little more vigorous than I thought he might, Recon finding reduced winds in the last runs but the plane may be having problems.

Does someone have a website to those good midlevel water vapor images?

[tolakram]

Mild level water vapor

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

[gatorcane]

Danny looks a lot better than I thought he would right now with a vigorous circulation and new convection firing. Hope the shear and dry air can finally get to him but so far they have not been successful in killing Danny.

[TexasF6]

Danny is quite the fighter! His exposed center is back under heavy thunder and he is vigorous.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, convection continues to increase. What the heck? I am pretty sure this was not expected

[CourierPR]

"Damn it, Jim, I'm a doctor not a meteorologist!"----Bones

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41300

Danny should pass within 10 miles of this buoy...enjoy

[SouthFLTropics]

Storms such as Danny with a vigorous, well formed core cannot be underestimated. The shear and dry air have sure done a number on him but so far they have not disrupted the inner core of the LLC. Danny will go down in history as the little engine that could.

SFT

[TexasF6]

Saved loop, convection continues to increase. What the heck? I am pretty sure this was not expected

Is our friend Gustywind on the butterfly shaped island? Is that Guadelupe?

[tailgater]

Mild level water vapor

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

Thanks, so what do we think about Danny now, is this just the normal pulsing of a shear storm when the shear relaxes a bit overnite or is the shear and moisture content/stable air not as bad as forecast thus far.

[Gustywind]

Looks like Danny is moving straight west since yesterday night. On this cap, Guadeloupe is surely the most exposed island of the Leewards as the west direction should continue till today (NHC forecasts).
If i've more infos concerning the weather forecast i will keep your informed.

[Gustywind]

Saved loop, convection continues to increase. What the heck? I am pretty sure this was not expected

Is our friend Gustywind on the butterfly shaped island? Is that Guadelupe?

Yeah Gustywind is from the butterfly island . Looks like Danny is moving straight west in our direction.
Orange alert have been activated for Guadeloupe due to a risk of strong showers and winds. I will keep your informed if i've more.

[SouthFLTropics]

"Damn it, Jim, I'm a doctor not a meteorologist!"----Bones

You sir win the post of the day award so far for today!!! Priceless.

SFT

[Frank P]

Well to my untrained eye he certainly looks better on the vis sat loops than he did yesterday afternoon and evening... interesting little storm to say the least! you can see the strong shear pummeling the clouds off to the west of him... still the tough road to hoe for the little wanna be storm...

[TexasF6]

OK Gusty!!! Stay safe please!!! I just re-read JB's tweets, he said Danny was dying, doomed, called Bones? Not so fast my friend! He is trending west to my eye....

[toad strangler]

You can see what Danny still has to slog through pretty easily here. It will be amazing if his little lights are not turned out