ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Finnally we have the invest for this wave.

AL, 98, 2015082200, , BEST, 0, 133N, 213W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2015082206, , BEST, 0, 133N, 231W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2015082212, , BEST, 0, 133N, 253W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2015082218, , BEST, 0, 133N, 274W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 98, 2015082300, , BEST, 0, 133N, 295W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 350, 300, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[TheStormExpert]

8pm TWO.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic a few hundred
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is currently
producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity. However,
slow development of this system is possible during the next several
days while the wave moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph over the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Blown Away]

[PTrackerLA]

Nice something to track this upcoming week as well. So much for totally dead MDR this season .

[TheStormExpert]

Doesn't have much convection at the moment.

[BigB0882]

Did Danny do anything to help with all the crazy dry air or will this face the same battle?

[tropicwatch]

This system had a lot more convection earlier today.

[Hammy]

Finally becomes an invest just in time for the convection to weaken...

[ninel conde]

One thing you need to aware of is these posts do appear on google search outrageous posts such as the system don't even qualify as TS don't wash well with credibility.

It doesnt come close to even a depression just yet.

[Brent]

CODE RED

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic more than 500
miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing an area
of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is
possible during the next several days while the wave moves quickly
westward at 20 to 25 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[YoshiMike]

Lets hope it becomes a perfectly organized storm, but one that does not hurt anybody. I love tracking a storm with that classic hurricane look. Way too early to even attempt to see where it goes or how strong it'll be yet even with models IMO. But hey something to track this week.

[Nederlander]

Convection on the increase...

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a low
pressure area located about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
mid-week while the wave moves quickly westward at around 20 mph. By
late this week, atmospheric conditions could become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2015082312, , BEST, 0, 137N, 344W, 25, 1009, WV

[Alyono]

no organization at all. Given the fast motion, this one could have SAL related shear problems. 70% seems too high to me

[gatorcane]

Yeah look pretty pathetic now, where it gets interesting is in about 4 or 5 days when it gets in the vicinity of the Leewards, Puerto Rico area (or a little north thereof) and slows down some. The ECMWF and UKMET both blow this thing up and show a possible recurve. May even have chance of becoming a major looking long-term at the ECMWF runs (looking 7+ days out).

[ronjon]

Yeah think it'll be tough racing at 25 mph to organize also. GFS doesn't develop it till way down the road near the Bahamas.

[NDG]

Next Major Hurricane in the making.
I busted big time when I said no tropical systems will form during the month of August in the MDR lol.
Maybe this is sign for what is to come for next year.

[cycloneye]

Next Major Hurricane in the making.
I busted big time when I said no tropical systems will form during the month of August in the MDR lol.
Maybe this is sign for what is to come for next year.

A repeat of the 1997 very strong El Nino year ERIKA that was cat 4?

[Hurricaneman]

This is under the convection, it has potential and needs to be watched in the northern Lesser antilles and from the The Bahamas and possibly Bermuda if the ridge doesn't build any and if it builds some then the Carolinas to Atlantic Canada and or the NEUS so it will probably be another long tracker

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products