ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Take a close look, it does appear to be going under the CDO.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-55&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[NDG]

The most important thing that I see this morning is that Danny is not loosing its moisture envelope like some were saying yesterday that Danny was going to dry up and not bring any rains to the Leeward Islands.
If anything the shear is helping with upper level divergence so that convection can keep refiring.

[northjaxpro]

12z suite of intensity models nearly all are showing a dramatic upswing in strength after the next 48-72 hours. GFDL at CAT 3 status at 5 days. Not sure we can write Danny off just yet.

Yeah, you are right. All kidding aside, Danny already has given us a textbook example and lesson of how unpredictable and volatile tropical cyclones can be. This morning, he is hanging tenanciously despite the hostile conditions. However, despite so many advances and progress made in making foecasting tropical cyclone much better the past couple of decades, Danny is proof positive that these entities have minds of their own. This is why we never, ever can take any system for granted in the tropics.

Hopefully, Danny will not pull anymore surprises, but already he seems to be trying to do so with convection trying to get back to the semi exposed LLC currently.

[AutoPenalti]

Live visible loop. Danny is picking a bad time to put up a fight.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-58&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

That last frame.
I feel like it will keep fighting, it has roughly another 35 hours to do so if I'm not mistaken? Someone correctly me please.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well I said Danny was dying tomorrow and nothing but a spin today. So far he has told me to shove it. lol We shall see if he can put convection all the way on that LLC.

[ronjon]

The most important thing that I see this morning is that Danny is not loosing its moisture envelope like some were saying yesterday that Danny was going to dry up and not bring any rains to the Leeward Islands.
If anything the shear is helping with upper level divergence so that convection can keep refiring.

I agree and shear has dropped maybe 5-10 knts since yesterday which might be enough to keep the storm at a steady state condition.

[Nederlander]

Danny looks close to being stacked again. We'll see if this trend continues. Danny is also in the worst area of shear right now (20+kts) so it remains to be seen how he makes it through that later today. Would not be surprised either way.


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Edit: 20kts not 30kts

[gatorcane]

Danny's deep convection does not seem to be fading and is maintaining, quite interesting. Latest imagery from RAMMB shows deeps reds sustaining. If it gets going around that LLC, we may even see some strengthening. Circulation is vigorous.

[northjaxpro]

Actually gatorcane the convection has been steadily expanding for about the past 6 hours now.

[tolakram]

live IR view, still firing convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-58&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[Nimbus]

The most important thing that I see this morning is that Danny is not loosing its moisture envelope like some were saying yesterday that Danny was going to dry up and not bring any rains to the Leeward Islands.
If anything the shear is helping with upper level divergence so that convection can keep refiring.

Since this is partially a learning forum (when there is no imminent threat to land) the moisture envelope is a good topic. Really good visual expression in this loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

The outflow from Danny is clearing the SAl quite far ahead.
The actual inflow at the surface is somewhat dry but SST's are up near 29 degrees now so it may be moist enough to require a forecast change down the road.

[tolakram]

Also interesting to look at the mid level water vapor loop. Danny is entering what appears to be improved mid level conditions.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/wvmid/movies/wvmid5new.html

[fd122]

Looks we might get some much needed rain after all. Hopefully not too much wind.

[wxman57]

I can see outflow boundaries in the southwest quadrant. It looks like the circulation is more broad this morning - less organized than yesterday despite the convection flare-up. Plenty of shear to battle the next few days. I suspect that convection diminish today. A plane is near the center now.

[Gustywind]

Danny's deep convection does not seem to be fading and is maintaining, quite interesting. Latest imagery from RAMMB shows deeps reds sustaining. If it gets going around that LLC, we may even see some strengthening. Circulation is vigorous.

Gatorcane, thank for you input we appreciate really that! Whereas, given your best thougts do you tkink that Danny has some potential to regain hurricane status before crossing the Leewards? I ask you that because of Danny seems to regain some punch just east of Guadeloupe...

[NDG]

The most important thing that I see this morning is that Danny is not loosing its moisture envelope like some were saying yesterday that Danny was going to dry up and not bring any rains to the Leeward Islands.
If anything the shear is helping with upper level divergence so that convection can keep refiring.

Since this is partially a learning forum (when there is no imminent threat to land) the moisture envelope is a good topic. Really good visual expression in this loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

The outflow from Danny is clearing the SAl quite far ahead.
The actual inflow at the surface is somewhat dry but SST's are up near 29 degrees now so it may be moist enough to require a forecast change down the road.

And at the lower levels it is still drawing in moisture from the ITCZ.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

I can see outflow boundaries in the southwest quadrant. It looks like the circulation is more broad this morning - less organized than yesterday despite the convection flare-up. Plenty of shear to battle the next few days. I suspect that convection diminish today. A plane is near the center now.

And on cue wxman57 is here to rain on Danny's parade...LOL. Just kidding, love your input.

SFT

[tropicwatch]

I can see outflow boundaries in the southwest quadrant. It looks like the circulation is more broad this morning - less organized than yesterday despite the convection flare-up. Plenty of shear to battle the next few days. I suspect that convection diminish today. A plane is near the center now.

That's a NASA plane flying at about 36,000ft. Where can we find what it is reporting.

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map&mapid=_11&zoom=8&lat=15.7713&lng=-58.2495&callsign=NASA817

[Nederlander]

I can see outflow boundaries in the southwest quadrant. It looks like the circulation is more broad this morning - less organized than yesterday despite the convection flare-up. Plenty of shear to battle the next few days. I suspect that convection diminish today. A plane is near the center now.

And on cue wxman57 is here to rain on Danny's parade...LOL. Just kidding, love your input.

SFT

Was thinking it but wasn't going to say it lol

[N2FSU]

From the 11am Discussion:

Both the GFS and ECMWF global models
continue to depict the system opening up into a wave within 48
hours. Given these unfavorable signs, the official forecast shows
weakening as in the previous advisories. However, because of the
uncertainties in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, it is
prudent to issue a tropical storm watch for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands at this time.

NHC acknowledging that future intensity is still debatable?