ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

From the 11am Discussion:

Both the GFS and ECMWF global models
continue to depict the system opening up into a wave within 48
hours. Given these unfavorable signs, the official forecast shows
weakening as in the previous advisories. However, because of the
uncertainties in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, it is
prudent to issue a tropical storm watch for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands at this time.

NHC acknowledging that future intensity is still debatable?

They said that a couple of advisories ago. I am not the least bit surprised that even the NHC crew are having a hard time figuring out the intensity from here on out.

[northjaxpro]

Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting has in the past and will remain the most challenging, despite all the advances made in improving forecasting these systems for the past couple of decades. This is especially true in this case with Danny, given how small the system had been his entire lifespan.

[Sanibel]

GFDL recurves Danny well east of Florida and forms a 110 knot hurricane.



The convection rebound is probably due to SST's. Don't know what to make of it but this is what you would see with a survivor.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC track still keeps it the same from last advisory.

[sponger]

It is fighting better than you would expect. However, the projected track over the DR could be more than problematic for its survival. Lets not forget that an open circulation TD 10 eventually became Katrina. Any circulation entering the Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched if conditions improve, which is forecasted.

[sponger]

GFDL recurves Danny well east of Florida and forms a 110 knot hurricane.



The convection rebound is probably due to SST's. Don't know what to make of it but this is what you would see with a survivor.

That would be so nice!

[tropicwatch]

Conditions at 41300 as of
(12:00 pm ADT)
1500 GMT on 08/23/2015:
15.850 N 57.467 W (15°51'0" N 57°28'0" W)

Unit of Measure: English

Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 36.9 kts
Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 15.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.1 °F
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 68.0 °F

[gatorcane]

GFDL recurves Danny well east of Florida and forms a 110 knot hurricane.



The convection rebound is probably due to SST's. Don't know what to make of it but this is what you would see with a survivor.

960MB, image posted in models thread.

[Nederlander]

GFDL recurves Danny well east of Florida and forms a 110 knot hurricane.



The convection rebound is probably due to SST's. Don't know what to make of it but this is what you would see with a survivor.

960MB, image posted in models thread.

Sheesh that would be a cat 4

[SouthFLTropics]

GFDL recurves Danny well east of Florida and forms a 110 knot hurricane.



The convection rebound is probably due to SST's. Don't know what to make of it but this is what you would see with a survivor.

960MB, image posted in models thread.

It's a good thing that probably the only way it could get that way is if it's headed out to sea. Could pose a problem for Bermuda though.

SFT

[WPBWeather]

GFDL recurves Danny well east of Florida and forms a 110 knot hurricane.



The convection rebound is probably due to SST's. Don't know what to make of it but this is what you would see with a survivor.

960MB, image posted in models thread.

It's a good thing that probably the only way it could get that way is if it's headed out to sea. Could pose a problem for Bermuda though.

SFT

The little bugger just won't go away. The weather science guys need to really study this one.

[Sanibel]

I think NHC wisely realizes the shear isn't going to stop once Danny enters the Caribbean. Since the Caribbean is acting like July therefore Danny will be wiped-out. Danny's taking a low track now that should crash whatever remains on Hispaniola, which should be it.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I think NHC wisely realizes the shear isn't going to stop once Danny enters the Caribbean. Since the Caribbean is acting like July therefore Danny will be wiped-out. Danny's taking a low track now that should crash whatever remains on Hispaniola, which should be it.

While I agree a track over Hispaniola is deadly. I think Danny has a strong enough vorticy to survive it if it is not directly over the mountains. I was ready to kill this thing off last night so know that too. Shear is not increasing it is dying in the Caribbean as according to this map below.

[tailgater]

Does anyone have shear forecast the eastern Caribbean over the next 2 days, not that I trust any of those that much.
Thanks in advance

[NDG]

Danny is going naked again.

Edit: Oops wrong thread, mods please delete my post.

Edit: Never mind, lol.

[tolakram]

Does anyone have shear forecast the eastern Caribbean over the next 2 days, not that I trust any of those that much.
Thanks in advance

Here was the latest from the 6z GFS run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015082306&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[AutoPenalti]

Danny is going naked again.

How so?

[Nederlander]

Does anyone have shear forecast the eastern Caribbean over the next 2 days, not that I trust any of those that much.
Thanks in advance

Shear looks to drastically diminish in 24-48 hours over most of the caribbean (if you have any level of confidence in shear forecasts.) So conditions look to improve, but there is also land interaction to deal with down the road. He is not out of the woods with the current shear though either. Tops are really getting blown off on vis imagery.

[NDG]

Danny is going naked again.

How so?

Last visible frame I can see the western circulation of the LLC.

[AutoPenalti]

Danny is going naked again.

How so?

Last visible frame I can see the western circulation of the LLC.

Oh yeah I see it now. Here's a pic if anyone else wants to peak.