ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SFLcane]

5,7 6 yrs its been a long time. Many don't realize how many hurdles these AEWs have to over come before there even a threat to the mainland. Most recurve. Its awsome to watch regardless if you live and breath tc's like me.

[northjaxpro]

Very good point perk. Let us just see how this evolves over time and we get an initialized, developed cyclone. Also perk, you are correct with your assessment that the odds are 50-50 of this being a recurve scenario or not at this moment based on what GFS and EURO are showing.

[tolakram]

Weak and west

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is faster and has shifted a little south from the 06Z with the low over the NE Leewards at 81 hours.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has 98L over Puerto Rico by hour 99 but is still weak. Good news, would be some good rains for them hopefully.

[SFLcane]

06z HWRF quickly ramps up invest 98L as it nears the Caribbean islands and Puerto Rico.

[tolakram]

Interesting. GFS loses a closed low at 84 hours, then weak.

[TheStormExpert]

Didn't the HWRF do good with Danny?

[gatorcane]

Pretty significant change with the 12Z GFS which shows more ridging across the Western Atlantic and alot less amplified east coast trough through hour 117.

[SFLcane]

Interesting. GFS loses a closed low at 84 hours, then weak.

Yea maybe danny part 2. I will pass on that

[hurricaneCW]

Pretty significant change with the 12Z GFS which shows more ridging across the Western Atlantic and a less amplified east coast trough through hour 114.

That's been the story all summer with the models being way too aggressive with the troughing. There's a reason it's been well above normal this month in the east.

[gatorcane]

123 hours, what happened to the trough?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has the low entering SE Bahamas near NE tip of Cuba at 129 hours. BIG shift south with this run.

[northjaxpro]

Didn't the HWRF do good with Danny?

Yes it did. About 5 days ago it showed Danny becoming a major hurricane, which of course happened back on Thursday.

[tolakram]

Vorticity washes out over PR and Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

Vorticity washes out over PR and Hispaniola.

http://imageshack.com/a/img661/1509/IVY1Eh.png

Nope, by hour 141 just along the NE Coast of Cuba. I am looking at instant weather maps, shows an isobar there.

[gatorcane]

By the way the 12Z GFS shows a good ridge now still through hour 147, what a change from the 06Z:

[tolakram]

Closer view, it does appear to be north of Hispaniola.

[northjaxpro]

So already we have seen a massive shift of the GFS, now joining the EURO showing more established ridging across the basin long term. Hmmm.. Just reaffirms the point I made earlier on this thread.