ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

The low-level circulation of Danny starting to become visible again as shear is helping to flatten the southwestern side of the convection:

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny is naky.

[Nederlander]

1km vis loop. You can definitely see the effects of the shear on him right now.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[tolakram]

[tailgater]

Does anyone have shear forecast the eastern Caribbean over the next 2 days, not that I trust any of those that much.
Thanks in advance

Here was the latest from the 6z GFS run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015082306&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=Animation

source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Okay thanks but I think I'm still confused about how it is killed off before it reaches the mountains. maybe the stable air.

[AutoPenalti]

That looks painful to be honest. I'm starting to become less optimistic about it.
My estimate would be that Danny will become an open wave by tonight or tomorrow morning.

My more optimistic me would say that this is only temporary and that convection will build up again later today.

[blp]

Still has a long way to go for its demise. It is common for llc to peak out occasionally like it did last night when shear increases and then as it relaxes it pops back in. This is going to happen several times and until the llc is completely void of any thuderstorms for extended period of time. As long as it keeps firing storms next to the center it is Ok. I expect that to happen a few more times.

Biggest problem is going to be the land interaction. There is no way that llc will survive a direct hit on Hispanola.

[tolakram]

Latest shear analysis. Looks like Danny will stay at < 30kts shear right now.

[northjaxpro]

In all likelihood, the land interaction, especially with Hispaniola, may finally be the dagger to Danny and cue in Bones. But, for some crazy reason, why do I have this feeling that Danny is not done pulling anothersurprise out from his sleeve?

[drezee]

42mph sustained 8-min winds would equate to about 50mph 1 min sustained winds...Danny Lives

[floridasun78]

when next plane go out danny?

[AutoPenalti]

42mph sustained 8-min winds would equate to about 50mph 1 min sustained winds...Danny Lives

Danny lives to fight another advisory.

[MGC]

It is conceivable that Danny could pass south of Hispaniola. Looks like NHC has shifted track south a bit. Until Danny opens into a wave it is still a threat.....MGC

[floridasun78]

soon we see danny on radar of islands

[NDG]

I think what will really kill Danny as it gets into the Caribbean and tracks south of PR is the mid level shear along with the low level jet could make it open up into a wave.

[floridasun78]

issue that were wind currents taking it too

[HurriGuy]

Station 41300 moments before Danny passed over it. Nothing too impressive on the west side. 40 minutes till the next measurement and that will likely be on the east side.

[HurriGuy]

here are those measurements taken from station 41300

[Frank2]

In this view Danny appears more like the head of a wave than anything:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[msbee]

St Maarten is 18.1 63.1. Trying to figure out if Danny is going to come close enough to give us some rain?
Any guesses?