ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looking at the SAT loop, it looks like it actually losing some latitude, the ridge to the north is very strong. Look how fast it is moving:

ATL wide loop:

[cycloneye]

Already the TCPOD mentions first mission for Tuesday afternoon.

POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEAR 16.0N 52.5W AT 25/1800Z.

[SFLcane]

Its booking gatorcane that's for sure don't know how much it can develop moving at 20-25 mph.

[TheStormExpert]

Development chances IMO should be lowered at 2pm since the GFS doesn't develop it at all.

[Ntxw]

Yeah this one is moving very fast, needs to slow down.

[YoshiMike]

Looking at the SAT loop, it looks like it actually losing some latitude, the ridge to the north is very strong. Look how fast it is moving:

ATL wide loop:

I agree with that. I can see it. I can also see a little rotation with that loop. I notice it right at the end. Looks like this thing is trying but it is moving pretty fast. Reminds me of last years cristobal.

[northjaxpro]

Due to the strength of the ridge steering 98L, it is possible the forward motion won't change much until the system gets on its approach to near the Islands. I can't see thid developing much either until it can slow down its forward motion. It is booking it through the MDR for sure right now.

[GeneratorPower]

The forward speed would not in my mind affect or hinder development it the low, mid and upper air flows were all similar.

[gatorcane]

Development chances IMO should be lowered at 2pm since the GFS doesn't develop it at all.

No way they will lower. All major global models outside of the GFS show this becoming a hurricane and possibly a formidable major hurricane in the long-range (ECMWF/UKMET/GEM).

GFS should come around after a couple of more runs.

[Alyono]

not with this moving at 25 kts through an area with upper level westerlies.

I'd give this maybe a 35 percent chance of developing, a 1 in 3 shot

[gatorcane]

convection on the increase, saved loop:

[northjaxpro]

To give proper perspective as to how fast 98L is moving, it was just very early yesterday morning this system had crossed 30 Longitude. As of this moment 98L is passing 37 degrees Longitude. It will be crossing 40 this evening. At this rate, it will be approaching the Islands by early Tuesday. Talk about booking it thru at a good clip.

[Hammy]

I think this can develop even moving at this speed if it remains large and maintains it's monsoonal envelope of moisture to the south at least until it slows down.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%-80%

Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with a low
pressure system located about 800 miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands has become better defined since yesterday. Shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with this low has also become
better organized. Environmental are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form before mid-
week while the wave moves quickly westward at around 20 mph. By
late this week, atmospheric conditions are expected to become less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[gatorcane]

[TheStormExpert]

New Video Discussion By Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits: Weekend video update on #Danny, Invest 98L, and #Kilo: http://t.co/Ql9chnB89v

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 13.7°N 36.7°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 175 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[MGC]

Got that tumbleweed look. Should be a TD soon.....MGC

[wxman57]

I think it's best shot at really developing (other than a struggling TD/TS) is once it moves across the NE Caribbean next Thursday and recurves. Euro has it as a 984mb hurricane SW of Bermuda at day 10.

[abajan]

It's now expected to move at around 20 mph instead of 20 to 25 mph.