WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Virtually every model has been windshield wipering. HWRF has been the most consistent though. It's gonna come down to how strong this becomes in the next day or so.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF a little west more like the 12z run, but stronger and too close for comfort.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF more west through 86 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Not a single GFS ensemble member brings this near Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is all clear. Back west. Pheew.

Models should be good now.

[Ntxw]

I'm hoping it misses Hawaii, keep it going west and rake up crazy ACE like Ioke in 2006, missing every island. Been awhile since we've had a 50+ ACE storm around these parts. Lets go for that!

[Yellow Evan]

I'm hoping it misses Hawaii, keep it going west and rake up crazy ACE like Ioke in 2006, missing every island. Been awhile since we've had a 50+ ACE storm around these parts. Lets go for that!

Yea. If this misses Hawaii, this will be very long lived and fun to watch and we may see this reach Cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF keeps this system around for 10 more days while another system (hard to tell if it's 95E or not) hits the state as a weak TD.

[Kingarabian]

Too much shear around Hawaii right now for anything to hit from the east.

I mean Kilo is under ideal conditions and it's really struggling. Thankfully Hawaii is just really protected.

I really wanna see some Super Nino fish back in the east pacific. Been a while since we've had something decent.

[Yellow Evan]

Too much shear around Hawaii right now for anything to hit from the east.

I mean Kilo is under ideal conditions and it's really struggling. Thankfully Hawaii is just really protected.

I really wanna see some Super Nino fish back in the east pacific. Been a while since we've had something decent.

'

I'm tired of all this model watching...

It's nice just having to worry about intensity and not track.

0z ECMWF also has a major near 130W in addition to a likely strong Kilo.

[Kingarabian]

Too much shear around Hawaii right now for anything to hit from the east.

I mean Kilo is under ideal conditions and it's really struggling. Thankfully Hawaii is just really protected.

I really wanna see some Super Nino fish back in the east pacific. Been a while since we've had something decent.

'

I'm tired of all this model watching...

It's nice just having to worry about intensity and not track.

0z ECMWF also has a major near 130W in addition to a likely strong Kilo.

Agreed. Unfortunately this season, these things have been flirting with Hawaii.

We were spoiled last year.

[euro6208]

Don't know if this is the system the GFS has coming over into the WPAC. Last run has a strengthening major typhoon northwest of Wake Island but now only shows a weaker very slow moving system crossing over but strengthening...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Don't know if this is the system the GFS has coming over into the WPAC. Last run has a strengthening major typhoon northwest of Wake Island but now only shows a weaker very slow moving system crossing over but strengthening...

Actually, that's Loke. It will cross the WPAC, and not Kilo. Kilo is expected to be a significant threat to the occidental coast of Hawaii

[euro6208]

Don't know if this is the system the GFS has coming over into the WPAC. Last run has a strengthening major typhoon northwest of Wake Island but now only shows a weaker very slow moving system crossing over but strengthening...

Actually, that's Loke. It will cross the WPAC, and not Kilo. Kilo is expected to be a significant threat to the occidental coast of Hawaii

I tracked the coordinates and this is Kilo, near 160E as GFS initialize, crossing over not Loke as GFS weakens it significantly.

It would be something if this misses Hawaii and goes to the WPAC...

[Alyono]

As I said last night, the other solution was it remains very weak and never feels the trough. That is likely what will happen now

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 230905
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

ANOTHER FLIGHT BY A CREW FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
SQUADRON WENT INTO KILO EARLY THIS EVENING. THEIR FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
FROM AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET SHOWED STRONGEST WINDS OF AROUND 33
KT...WITH AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 28 KT FAR NORTHEAST OF
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER. THEY ALSO WERE NOT ABLE TO FIND A
WELL-DEFINED LOWER LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS THEY PASSED
THROUGH THE APPARENT CENTER BEFORE THEIR RETURN TO HONOLULU.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER RAGGED LOOKING SYSTEM...SO IT IS
NOT SURPRISING THAT THEY WERE NOT ABLE TO TRACK A DEFINITIVE LOW
LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
1.5 FROM JTWC...2.0 FROM SAB...AND 2.5 FROM PHFO. THE LATEST
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
OBSERVATIONS AND A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 PRIMARILY BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT FIX. KILO CONTINUES TO BE STEERED AT A RATHER RAPID PACE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND IN HAWAII. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR LONGITUDE 164W...IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. AS A RESULT...KILO WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING WHICH WOULD CAUSE IT
TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY 3 TIME PERIOD.
AFTER THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO FORECAST DURING
DAYS 4-5...DUE IN PART TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS NORTH
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVATURE AT THE
LONGER TIME RANGE APPEARS TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE GFDL AND HWRF. NOTE THAT THE
ECMWF HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE LEFT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...SO THIS
HAS STARTED TO DRAG THE CONSENSUS TO THE WEST. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS A LONG-TERM TREND SO WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY
DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES
OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE 8 KT FROM 285 DEGREES BASED
ON THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND 7 KT FROM 305 DEGREES BASED ON THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS GENERAL
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...ASSUMING KILO CAN BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...SLOW INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY. THIS IS
MOST IN LINE WITH SHIPS...SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS APPEAR
TO PREDICT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM BY DAYS 4-5. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO INCREASE THE LONG TERM INTENSITY GIVEN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.2N 162.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 163.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.5N 164.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 17.2N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 18.1N 164.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.1N 164.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 19.6N 163.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 20.3N 163.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[TheStormExpert]

New Video Discussion By Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan.

@TropicalTidbits: Weekend video update on #Danny, Invest 98L, and #Kilo: http://t.co/Ql9chnB89v

[Yellow Evan]

Recon suggests that the storm is a little better organized now, but still a 25-30 knt TD.

[Yellow Evan]

TS watch up.

WTPA41 PHFO 232056
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF KILO HAS IMPROVED A BIT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A CREW FROM THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
SQUADRON WENT INTO KILO THIS MORNING AND FOUND THE STRONGEST WINDS
WERE WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT INDICATING THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT STRETCHED OUT. THE
LATEST DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0 FROM
BOTH PHFO AND JTWC AND UP TO 2.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS WE HAVE
KEPT THE INTENSITY OF KILO AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

KILO CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS WEST FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO NEAR 165W. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT KILO WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING WHICH
WOULD CAUSE IT TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THEN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH NORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING DAYS 3 AND 4. THIS IS DUE TO A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS DOWN NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE SHARPNESS OF THE RE-CURVATURE IN THE LONGER TIME RANGE
APPEARS TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. BY
DAY 5...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS AN ANTICYCLONE
BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH GFDL AND
GEMI.

KILO REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ARE 7 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST BASED ON THE UW-CIMSS
ANALYSIS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK. THEREFORE...ASSUMING KILO CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...SLOW
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSELY. THIS IS MOST IN LINE WITH
SHIPS GUIDANCE SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS APPEAR TO
PREDICT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM BY DAYS 4-5. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
INCREASE THE LONG TERM INTENSITY GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITIONS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JOHNSTON ATOLL SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PAST CLOSELY TO THE EAST OF IT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.5N 164.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.9N 166.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.6N 166.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.4N 167.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.1N 167.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 18.6N 166.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 19.9N 166.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 20.7N 167.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Kingarabian]

Consolidating?