WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[srainhoutx]

It appears that Kilo has slowed to a stall and may be drifting N. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop over and offshore of Kauai and Oahu. Kilo may have reached the Western flank of the Pacific Ridge and also could be feeling the trough to its NE.

[Kingarabian]

It appears that Kilo has slowed to a stall and may be drifting N. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop over and offshore of Kauai and Oahu. Kilo may have reached the Western flank of the Pacific Ridge and also could be feeling the trough to its NE.

If Kilo manages to develop into a stronger storm by tomorrow, it's possible it could get closer to Hawaii as the models were originally showing.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA31 PHFO 232357
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
200 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

...KILO REMAINS DISORGANIZED EAST SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 165.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE
MONUMENT...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/H
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...AND KILO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JOHNSTON
ISLAND STARTING MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SURF ALONG REEFS AND SHORELINES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH KILO MAY REACH JOHNSTON
ISLAND BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[1900hurricane]

Saw some of today's model guidance showing a monster tropical cyclone near the dateline in the medium range and was wondering where it was coming from. Took me a minute to realize that it was actually Kilo! I'd love to see verification of a solution like that.

[supercane]

130
WTPA31 PHFO 240254
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

..KILO REMAINS DISORGANIZED EAST SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND



SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 166.1W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE
MONUMENT...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/H. KILO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KILO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH ON MONDAY. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JOHNSTON
ISLAND STARTING MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SURF ALONG REEFS AND SHORELINES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH KILO MAY REACH JOHNSTON
ISLAND BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.


FORECASTER TANABE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 240315
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KILO CONTINUES ITS ON AGAIN
OFF AGAIN CYCLE. AFTER A DECENT BURST OF CONVECTION WHICH PEAKED
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER SMALLER BURST JUST BEFORE
NOON...OVERALL CONVECTION HAS STEADILY DECREASED. THE LATEST DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...HFO AND JTWC AT 2.0 AND SAB AT 2.5. THE INTENSITY OF KILO
WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT FROM
THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WILL NOT CONDUCT A MISSION
TONIGHT AND HAVE SWITCHED TO A ONCE PER DAY FLIGHTS. THE NEXT FLIGHT
IS SCHEDULED TO SUPPORT THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE TOMORROW.

THERE HAVE BEEN NO MARKED CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SURROUNDING KILO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF HAWAII
IN ADDITION TO ANTICYCLONES AT 700 AND 500 MB OVER HAWAII. THIS
ARRANGEMENT HAS KEPT KILO MOVING EITHER DUE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD
ALLOW KILO TO START ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHICH WE HAVE BEEN
ANTICIPATING FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
SHIFTED MARKEDLY TO THE LEFT OR WEST THIS TIME AROUND AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. ANY EASTWARD
REGRESSION IN THE TRACK FORECAST WAS REMOVED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS ON THE RIGHT OR EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

KILO REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. KILO HAS
THUS FAR FOUGHT OFF ALL THREE. WITH NO EXPECTED CHANGES...THE 12
HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED TO KEEP KILO AT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN LINE WITH THE GFS. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
STILL EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED
FROM 24 HOURS AND THEREAFTER....WITH KILO STILL REACHING MINIMUM
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT DAY 3.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PAST CLOSELY TO THE EAST. INTERESTS
IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.5N 166.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.0N 167.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.7N 167.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.4N 167.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 168.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.2N 168.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 19.2N 168.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 20.4N 168.8W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[Yellow Evan]

Edited: Wrong TC.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

If this is not a hurricane or at least a 60 knot TS, what is?

That is Loke.

[AbcdeerHI]

I may be premature but convection looks vigorous for once, the much anticipated strengthening may be beginning.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FLARED UP AROUND KILO AND THIS CURRENT
BURST IS SIMILAR IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO WHAT WAS SEEN
SUNDAY MORNING AT SUNRISE. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE KILO BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HOWEVER GIVEN THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE CURRENT
FLARE UP WILL PERSIST. THE LATEST DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED OVER THE PAST TWO CYCLES. HFO AND JTWC
REMAIN AT 2.0 AND SAB IS KEEPING 2.5. THE INTENSITY OF KILO WILL
REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT FROM THE
53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WILL NOT CONDUCT A MISSION
TONIGHT AND HAVE SWITCHED TO ONCE PER DAY FLIGHTS. THE NEXT FLIGHT
IS SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE 06Z FIX POSITIONS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE
NORTHWEST TURN WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR SOME TIME MAY FINALLY HAVE
STARTED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR
WEST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS NUDGED WEST
ACCORDINGLY...PLACING KILO CLOSER TO JOHNSTON ISLAND IN THE 24-48
HOUR TIME FRAME AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. FROM
72 HOURS AND BEYOND...TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST A DRAMATIC TURN TOWARD THE WEST...IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICTING MORE ROBUST RIDGING BUILDING IN NORTH OF KILO AFTER
LOKE SHOOTS QUICKLY NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST TRACK IN
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WAS SHIFTED WEST...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS SUGGESTED
BY SOME OF MEMBERS LIKE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF.

KILO REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND UNDER LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. KILO HAS
THUS FAR NOT RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH KILO REACHING MINIMUM HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS. THE 96 AND 120 HOUR IN INTENSITY WAS LOWERED
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SHEAR PARTLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONGER RIDGING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PAST CLOSELY TO THE EAST OF IT. INTERESTS
IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.8N 166.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.3N 167.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.1N 168.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 17.1N 168.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.0N 168.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 18.9N 169.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.6N 169.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.2N 170.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[TheStormExpert]

Well, seems like Hawaii dodged yet another bullet.

[euro6208]

Looks like it's best chance will be in the monster of all basin, the WPAC, where GFS bottoms this out at 906 mb for 2 consecutive run. Huge ACE storm...

EURO also showing an intense typhoon...

WPAC welcomes you as long as you don't bother anyone...

[Yellow Evan]

If this is not a hurricane or at least a 60 knot TS, what is?

That is Loke.

Sorry, whoops.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 240914
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2015

CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FLARED UP AROUND KILO AND THIS CURRENT
BURST IS SIMILAR IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO WHAT WAS SEEN
SUNDAY MORNING AT SUNRISE. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE KILO BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HOWEVER GIVEN THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE CURRENT
FLARE UP WILL PERSIST. THE LATEST DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED OVER THE PAST TWO CYCLES. HFO AND JTWC
REMAIN AT 2.0 AND SAB IS KEEPING 2.5. THE INTENSITY OF KILO WILL
REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT FROM THE
53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON WILL NOT CONDUCT A MISSION
TONIGHT AND HAVE SWITCHED TO ONCE PER DAY FLIGHTS. THE NEXT FLIGHT
IS SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE 06Z FIX POSITIONS WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THE
NORTHWEST TURN WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR SOME TIME MAY FINALLY HAVE
STARTED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR
WEST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS NUDGED WEST
ACCORDINGLY...PLACING KILO CLOSER TO JOHNSTON ISLAND IN THE 24-48
HOUR TIME FRAME AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. FROM
72 HOURS AND BEYOND...TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST A DRAMATIC TURN TOWARD THE WEST...IN RESPONSE TO GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICTING MORE ROBUST RIDGING BUILDING IN NORTH OF KILO AFTER
LOKE SHOOTS QUICKLY NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST TRACK IN
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WAS SHIFTED WEST...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS SUGGESTED
BY SOME OF MEMBERS LIKE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF.

KILO REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ABUNDANT
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND UNDER LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. KILO HAS
THUS FAR NOT RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH KILO REACHING MINIMUM HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS. THE 96 AND 120 HOUR IN INTENSITY WAS LOWERED
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SHEAR PARTLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONGER RIDGING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND SINCE
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PAST CLOSELY TO THE EAST OF IT. INTERESTS
IN THE WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KILO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.8N 166.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.3N 167.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.1N 168.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 17.1N 168.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.0N 168.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 18.9N 169.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.6N 169.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.2N 170.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

[Extratropical94]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
200 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015

...KILO MOVING NORTHWEST AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH JOHNSTON
ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 167.5W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

Major burst of convection, though it seems to almost have that CCC look.

[srainhoutx]

Rattled out of bed this morning with intense thunderstorms on Waikiki Beach. No wind, butt very intense lightning. Carpet soaked inside my hotel room at the sliding door that is closed. Good thing Kilo will not get this far N in Oahu. I am seeing some flight delays already to and from Honolulu from the Mainland this morning. In fact the flight I will be traveling on Tuesday night was delayed for an hour yesterday due severe weather conditions over the Pacific route back to the Mainland. Would expect delays due to thunderstorms throughout the day as well.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015

THE CENTER OF KILO APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BASED ON AMSU-B PASSES AT 0802 UTC AND 0847
UTC...AS WELL AS AN 0848 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INCLUDED
SOME UNCONTAMINATED 30 KT BARBS. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING
KILO AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA
ALSO CONFIRMS WHAT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS...THAT KILO
CONTINUES TO BE A MESSY SYSTEM WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION THAT
STRETCHES ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6. KILO IS TRACKING AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO THE ANTICYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND KILO WILL BE LEFT IN A LARGE AREA OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS AT DAYS 2 AND 3. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...DEEP LAYER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NORTH OF KILO...FORCING
THE SYSTEM BACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SIMPLY
AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH
MORE OF A WESTWARD TURN AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE TRENDS OF BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. ALTHOUGH KILO IS
OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C...IT APPEARS THE
DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED WIND FIELD AROUND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE
HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. THE CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING 10 TO 15 KT OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO IF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD CAN BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL
THEN STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS KILO GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWARD
AND SLOWS DOWN. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE INTENSIFICATION TREND MAY BE
ARRESTED AS KILO BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT REMAINS WELL
BELOW THE CONSENSUS...HWRF...AND GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.6N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.2N 168.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.1N 168.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.0N 168.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 168.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 19.0N 169.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 170.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 19.7N 171.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[srainhoutx]

Nasty day in Oahu this morning. The Pacific Ocean has a brown look just offshore of Waikiki Beach and we've had thunderstorms and rainfall since late last night. Kilo has turned to the NNW now...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
800 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO MOVING CLOSER TO JOHNSTON ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 167.8W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JOHNSTON ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF KILO WILL PASS LESS THAN 100 MILES TO THE
EAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND KILO MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AGAIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JOHNSTON
ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

SURF...LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING REEFS AND SHORELINES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE TRACK OF KILO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[euro6208]

Kilo in the WPAC as a Cat 5 STY as per EURO while GFS barely makes it here...