ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N39W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 39W-44W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY W NEAR 25-20 KT.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[abajan]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N39W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 39W-44W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY W NEAR 25-20 KT.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

Strange wording. It would normally be 20-25 KT. Plus, 25 knots is about 29 mph which is very fast!

[northjaxpro]

98L is looking rather good and really moving quickly this morning. This is likely already a TD and at the rate of speed the system is moving, 98L will approach the Islands within 48 hours. Wow!! It is really booking it.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1008 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N39W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 39W-44W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY W NEAR 25-20 KT.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

Strange wording. It would normally be 20-25 KT. Plus, 25 knots is about 29 mph which is very fast!

Yeah Abajan that's surely a mistake, are they also shake at 20-25 kts?

[Gustywind]

98L is looking rather good and really moving quickly this morning. This is likely already a TD and at the rate of speed the system is moving, 98L will approach the Islands within 48 hours. Wow!! It is really booking it.

It seems! Looks like our Pro Mets expected this to move in our area of Guadeloupe Thursday or Friday at best. Looks like a TD or TS within the next 12 hours-24hours? Wait and see.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTNT21 KNGU 240600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 38.9W TO 14.8N 47.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 38.8W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: INVEST 98L IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AT 20 TO 30 KTS. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES 98L HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT. WIND SHEAR
VALUES AHEAD OF THE INVEST REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT
QUICKLY CONTINUES ITS TRACK TO THE WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250600Z.//

[northjaxpro]

Well, when I refer to approach the Islands, I am stating nearing within 250 miles or so. Nonetheless, soon to be Erika is really moving and gustywind you and all in the Islands really need to watch this one. Everyone actually for that matter.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=13&lon=-40&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N41W. SSMI TPW SHOWS THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY W
NEAR 20 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Extratropical94]

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 1250 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles
has continued to become better organized since yesterday. Satellite
data also indicates that the low's circulation is gradually becoming
better defined. If current trends continue, a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves westward
at around 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[northjaxpro]

Already has a 1007 mb estimate, which can support a theory of this possibly being supportive of TS status currently.

[SouthDadeFish]

Dvorak numbers are now T1.5, which can justify classification as a TC if the NHC feels a surface circulation is present.

[northjaxpro]

I am amazed as to why NHC has not gone ahead and classify this as a TD at least right now based on the trends. It is rather clear to me we have a developing tropical cyclone out there.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: I am amazed as to why NHC has not gone ahead and classify this as a TD at least right now based on the trends. It is rather clear to me we have a developing tropical cyclone out there.

Hopefully they pull the trigger at 11am. I also agree that it's classifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't know why this hasn't been upped, but I hope they do so soon.

[ouragans]

When is the next ASCAT pass? I think that's what the NHC waits for to upgrade to TD5

[Blown Away]

98L Looking good this morning:

[tropicwatch]

ouragans: Should be out pretty soon.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:


As of 12:00 UTC Aug 24, 2015:

Location: 14.6°N 43.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[AJC3]

When is the next ASCAT pass? I think that's what the NHC waits for to upgrade to TD5

ouragans: Should be out pretty soon.

Yep. According to the NRL, METOP-B made its CPA (416mi) to 98L at 1207UTC. Usually these passes take about 90-120 minutes to reach the web.