ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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#241 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:47 pm

If the trend is your friend don't look for much development. Both the EURO and GFS were forecasting major hurricanes and now we have nothing but washed out vorticity. Steering pattern is irrelevant when you don't have a storm to steer.
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#242 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:47 pm

I am shocked the Euro is not blowing it up in the Bahamas. :uarrow:
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#243 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:48 pm

Image
12z GFDL... Modest TS intensifying moving WNW...
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#244 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:49 pm

Enters the SE Gulf at 216 hours but still weak, long-range. So the GFS and Euro are both in good agreement and for the time being, both models don't blow this thing up but certainly a bit discomforting looking at those models for those of us in the Bahamas and Southern Florida trackwise
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#245 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:54 pm

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL982015  08/24/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    45    50    55    59    64    68    69    71    71    69    70    71
V (KT) LAND       40    45    50    55    59    64    68    69    71    71    69    70    71
V (KT) LGE mod    40    45    50    54    59    67    74    79    81    83    83    84    85
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     6     8    10    10     9    15    16    15    18    17    20    18
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     3     0    -6    -5     0    -1     0    -1    -1    -1    -2    -4
SHEAR DIR         22   359   354   352     3   309   314   301   300   284   299   295   323
SST (C)         27.3  27.4  27.5  27.4  27.4  27.9  28.2  28.4  28.5  28.6  28.8  29.0  29.5
POT. INT. (KT)   131   131   133   131   131   137   141   144   145   146   149   151   159
ADJ. POT. INT.   133   132   133   130   130   136   139   140   140   140   138   137   143
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     9     9     9    10    11    12    12    12    12    12    11    12
700-500 MB RH     60    61    62    61    60    60    58    58    57    59    59    61    58
MODEL VTX (KT)    15    15    16    16    14    13    12    11    10     8     6     6     6
850 MB ENV VOR    71    68    64    52    33     2   -12   -23   -30   -35   -38   -62   -86
200 MB DIV        25    12    11    12    18     1     9   -12     1     0     5    16    -2
700-850 TADV     -13   -10    -7    -9   -17    -4    -8    -9    -9    -5    -4    -6     0
LAND (KM)       1328  1233  1162  1109  1080   860   716   532   224    55   167   241   388
LAT (DEG N)     14.5 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     45.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    18    17    16    16    16    15    14    13    13    12    10     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      17    28    20    13    16    28    48    39    49    65    68    62    56

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20      CX,CY: -19/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  472  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  64.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   6.   9.  13.  16.  18.  20.  21.  21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   5.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9. -11. -11. -11.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  15.  19.  24.  28.  29.  31.  31.  29.  30.  31.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST     08/24/15  18 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.7 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.4 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  91.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  18.8 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  15.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  55.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    24% is   2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    13% is   1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     7% is   1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     6% is   2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST     08/24/15  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST     08/24/2015  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#246 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:59 pm

18z...
Image
Tightly clustered...
Image
Most showing intensifying hurricane late in forecast...
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#247 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:59 pm

12Z HWRF-P has what looks like a major hurricane heading WNW into the SE Bahamas with a ridge to the north :eek:

Image

Image
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#248 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:04 pm

HWRF zoomed in shows 957MB nearing the SE Bahamas: :eek:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#249 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:05 pm

I think we're looking at a depression at this point. Granted, there is no actual ship/bouy data to support my assertion, but i'd pretty much bet that 98L now has a weak circulation that is fully on the surface and co-located convection would imply to me that it is already a depression. I'm guessing that NHC could upgrade at 5:00pm, unless choosing to see if convection is persistent and wait for improved banding. Either way, i'd guess the trigger will be pulled sometime today/tonight.

(oops, sorry Mod's... just realized I posted this in the model's page. I"ll re-post in the discussion page)
Last edited by chaser1 on Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#250 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:06 pm

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#251 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:15 pm

Looks to gain a little strength in the Eastern Gulf once it crosses Southern Florida but this is 10 days out. I think we need to see if models trend up on intensity while it is in the Atlantic.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#252 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:40 pm

12z CMC:
Image
12z Nogaps:
Image

Both 12z CMC & Nogaps blow up 98L in the Bahamas and recurve... Much farther west than previous runs...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#253 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:42 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#254 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:44 pm

TAFB has 98L over the NE Caribbean as "Possible Tropical Cyclone" in 72 hours and moving WNW just north of Hispaniola after that... That's a make me nervous spot... :eek:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#255 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:51 pm

Well given that are two best global models GFS and ECM (which both forecast Danny's demise in the caribbean) don't really develop 98L I can't get too concerned over this system now. They must be latching onto the hostile conditions in this El Nino year. Things can change but for now I'm leaning toward weak development for 98L.
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#256 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:53 pm

Still have to remember these models can still change of course. But, it is becoming more apparent as of right now that this tropical entity's prospects of bringing potential effects to the Bahamas and South Florida are increasing as we are within a week now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#257 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:56 pm

ronjon wrote:Well given that are two best global models GFS and ECM (which both forecast Danny's demise in the caribbean) don't really develop 98L I can't get too concerned over this system now. They must be latching onto the hostile conditions in this El Nino year. Things can change but for now I'm leaning toward weak development for 98L.


Euro was weak until the EGOM... GFS took a trip over all the big islands then showed life in the EGOM... Nearly all the other "unreliable" models are showing strong system after @65W... Has much more support than Danny longterm...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#258 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:30 pm

what i see here on Models that danny clean up parh for next system and stating look like gpoing pass near leedward island got freel going ne of them go toward bahamas ny friend on islands and bahamas and south fl need keep on this 98l soon to be Erika personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#259 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:31 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z...
Tightly clustered...
Image
Most showing intensifying hurricane late in forecast...


A lot of these models are bending slightly more WNW at the end...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#260 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 24, 2015 3:32 pm

The track is definitely concerning. The models also initially underdid the intensity for Danny. I believe the HWRF was the only model that showed Danny becoming a significant storm for days. Below is an image of some of the respective models (including the NHC forecast) and their performance with intensity error regarding Danny.

Image
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