ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

I would be surprised if it is not upgraded to TD by 5 PM.

Hearing it will probably be upgraded to Erika. A couple of pro mets here in Carolina are saying so.

ok ty for that info

[Alyono]

if the circ has closed off since the ASCAT, it will be a TS

Not too worried about it blowing up too strong in the short term. However, I am worried as it could move into the Gulf

[Hammy]

if the circ has closed off since the ASCAT, it will be a TS

Not too worried about it blowing up too strong in the short term. However, I am worried as it could move into the Gulf

I know someone who recently moved to coastal Mississippi ask me about this after the latest track shifts in the models. Is it too early at this point to rule out a hurricane?

[northjaxpro]

if the circ has closed off since the ASCAT, it will be a TS

Not too worried about it blowing up too strong in the short term. However, I am worried as it could move into the Gulf

I know someone who recently moved to coastal Mississippi ask me about this after the latest track shifts in the models. Is it too early at this point to rule out a hurricane?

loop

Hammy, it is still just a tad bit early. I would wait until at least until Wednesday becausr by then, we should imo have a much better idea of the situation and also if indeed Erika may be a plausible threat to folks in the GOM.

[Alyono]

if the circ has closed off since the ASCAT, it will be a TS

Not too worried about it blowing up too strong in the short term. However, I am worried as it could move into the Gulf

I know someone who recently moved to coastal Mississippi ask me about this after the latest track shifts in the models. Is it too early at this point to rule out a hurricane?

I really am not sure to be honest. So far away and there are unfavorable conditions between this and the Gulf

[Tireman4]

if the circ has closed off since the ASCAT, it will be a TS

Not too worried about it blowing up too strong in the short term. However, I am worried as it could move into the Gulf

"ears perk up", eh?

[Blown Away]

My prediction, 98L will be upgraded to TD or TS by 11pm and the 5 day cone will show a hurricane nearing the SE Bahamas!!! SFL news channel chaos will commence...

[HURRICANELONNY]

My prediction, 98L will be upgraded to TD or TS by 11pm and the 5 day cone will show a hurricane nearing the SE Bahamas!!! SFL news channel chaos will commence...

I wouldn't fret too much till the reliable models like euro and gfs say hurricane. I really don't see that type of enviroment in the carribean. Good to be ready and stocked for any reason though.

[galaxy401]

I could see this storm being very similar to the storms in the past few years (struggling TS which is trying to hold its circulation in a dry and sheared environment). It's future will be tough to determine.

[JPmia]

My prediction, 98L will be upgraded to TD or TS by 11pm and the 5 day cone will show a hurricane nearing the SE Bahamas!!! SFL news channel chaos will commence...

I wouldn't fret too much till the reliable models like euro and gfs say hurricane. I really don't see that type of enviroment in the carribean. Good to be ready and stocked for any reason though.

Yeah the current GFS solution would be great for us here in SE FL.. it's been hot with extreme drought conditions.

[SFLcane]

Per GFS well likely be tracking another naked vortex once this things gets near the Caribbean. If it's right.

[gatorcane]

My prediction, 98L will be upgraded to TD or TS by 11pm and the 5 day cone will show a hurricane nearing the SE Bahamas!!! SFL news channel chaos will commence...

Yeah things are going to start getting crazy here when NHC shows this cone pointing at the SE Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

Oh goody, GFS with another naked cane.

[TheStormExpert]

My prediction, 98L will be upgraded to TD or TS by 11pm and the 5 day cone will show a hurricane nearing the SE Bahamas!!! SFL news channel chaos will commence...

Yeah things are going to start getting crazy here. The time of year, the track, and the synoptic setup is potential classic hit from the east. Still a long way out but seems like this could really be a legitimate threat for South Florida / Bahamas.

We will probably be going even longer if the GFS and Euro are correct. I'm not buying the hurricane and statistical models, too much in the way of unfavorable environment out there for anything to survive past the NE Caribbean. Take Danny for example.

[ouragans]

Gustywind when do you see watch post again for islands ? i bet people their dont want hear about other system coming

Since models are moving it into the NE Caribbean Wednesday evening, watches would go out tomorrow evening (48 hours prior).

Thanks for this info wxman57. So you think that Guadeloupe must keep an eye on this?

wxman3 you don't know our pro-mets... if 98L becomes Erika tonight, they might place us on Yellow Alert! They are... hum... surprising. I really have a hard time with my followers on Facebook and Twitter to explain them this is safety.

What I'm afraid of is people not to take another watch/warning in consideration, and to go out for pictures... If 98L reaches us at daytime, we will have casualties, for sure! I'm already working on an action plan with one of the local radios to sensibilize people to remain at home if we have a daytime hit.

[floridasun78]

My prediction, 98L will be upgraded to TD or TS by 11pm and the 5 day cone will show a hurricane nearing the SE Bahamas!!! SFL news channel chaos will commence...

Yeah things are going to start getting crazy here when NHC shows this cone pointing at the SE Bahamas.

yes specially ch7

[HURRICANELONNY]

My prediction, 98L will be upgraded to TD or TS by 11pm and the 5 day cone will show a hurricane nearing the SE Bahamas!!! SFL news channel chaos will commence...

Yeah things are going to start getting crazy here when NHC shows this cone pointing at the SE Bahamas.

I think the cone for danny was se bahamas and look what's left of danny.

[floridasun78]

look nhc waiting longer to upgrade it because how thing wamt with danny east of island i still see shear a bit dry area

[gatorcane]

Looks upgradable to me - this system is much larger than Danny so it may have a better chance at fighting off some hostile conditions until it finds more favorable ones:

[hurrtracker79]

look nhc waiting longer to upgrade it because how thing wamt with danny east of island i still see shear a bit dry area

They have until 5PM EDT to upgrade if they are doing it now. 20 more minutes to go. We'll see.