WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

At 18Z, JTWC and JMA stayed at 110 kt and 95 kt, respectively. With Goni appearing to make landfall as this post is being typed, it appears that this is the strongest Japanese landfall since Yancy in 1993.

[1900hurricane]

Lowest pressure I've seen around Kyushu so far is 948 mb in one of the hourly obs for Akune.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

I know Japan is very populated but using google earth, i was dazzled by how populated this area Goni is moving over and about to move over...

Japan is used to typhoons so that should calm the nerves...

The largest city, Fukuoka, in the line of fire!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 44//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM SOUTH OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CONVECTIVE CORE SURROUNDING A 13
NM EYE. AN 241830Z SSMI AS WELL AS RADAR FROM JMA AND OBSERVATIONS
GIVE VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO
30 KNOT) VWS. TY 16W IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING NER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, STEERED BY THE BUILDING NER. AFTERWARDS, THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS AN INDUCED STR NORTHEAST ASSUMES STEERING
AND THE SYSTEM IS TAKEN INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO DECAY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
BEYOND THAT, LOW SSTS AND OHC WILL AID IN THE DISSIPATION AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 24. EXPECT
THE SYSTEM TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT UP THROUGH 36 WITH SOME LIMITED SPREAD AT TAU 48.
HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 16W (GONI) WARNING NR 46//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 16W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81 NM NORTHWEST OF
IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AN ELONGATED CIRRUS SHIELD ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE LLCC IN MSI AND
SUPPORTED BY A LOW REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE IN THE 250307Z AMSR-2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS A RJTD RADAR FIX. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL
WEAKENING OF THE TYPHOON'S STRUCTURE AND SUPPORTED BY DECREASING
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AS THE SYSTEM EMBEDS WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND ENCOUNTERS HIGH (40 TO 50 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASED TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 26 CELSIUS. TY 16W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 16W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING STR. AFTERWARDS, THE FORECAST TRACK
WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TY GONI WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN-LAND. BASED
ON THE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

So far 21 people dead and it's mostly in the Philippines...