ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET is really bullish. The UKMET and HWRF were correct with Danny's development (while the GFS and ECMWF were more lackluster initially) so here we go again, will they be correct?

Also UKMET bends slightly WNW at the end on this run.

[OuterBanker]

Fla and Gom are looking a GFS and Euro. East coasters are looking at HWRF. GFS has been horrible. Euro still has it's left bias. My bias lies with the HWRF. Never paid much attention to the HWRF but apparently it has been performing the best so far this year. Also been reading the accolades from various sources. Maybe the government finally got and upgrade right. The gfs still needs a lot of work, Euro still outperforming it on a regular basis.

[ronjon]

Didn't both GFDL and HWRF consistently over forecast the strength of Danny in the caribbean and LA? I know HWRF eventually changed its tune and downgraded Danny compared to the GFDL but the European model was the most consistent in showing Danny's demise once it approached the LA. Hard to argue against the Euorpean model in the long term.

[jlauderdal]

Fla and Gom are looking a GFS and Euro. East coasters are looking at HWRF. GFS has been horrible. Euro still has it's left bias. My bias lies with the HWRF. Never paid much attention to the HWRF but apparently it has been performing the best so far this year. Also been reading the accolades from various sources. Maybe the government finally got and upgrade right. The gfs still needs a lot of work, Euro still outperforming it on a regular basis.

Post of the day

[gatorcane]

well for the HWRF believers, this is what it shows (posting) again. That is a major hurricane with a strong 500MB ridge to the north which would allow it to make some further progress west. How far? Not sure as this run only goes out 126 hours. Needless to say it bears watching for those in the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

[Hammy]

Didn't both GFDL and HWRF consistently over forecast the strength of Danny in the caribbean and LA? I know HWRF eventually changed its tune and downgraded Danny compared to the GFDL but the European model was the most consistent in showing Danny's demise once it approached the LA. Hard to argue against the Euorpean model in the long term.

I don't recall the HWRF showing anything more than a weak storm entering the Caribbean, though the GFDL did in fact show not only a mid-range system, but also a more northward track with reintensification afterwards. The HWRF was also the only model that showed Danny strengthening the way it did (which everyone including myself dismissed initially.)

I do have doubts here about the intensity forecast but I could be proven wrong again given the model's history the last two seasons.

[storm4u]

Models are all over the place give it a couple more days

[Bocadude85]

Perhaps Se Fla could get a weak ts out of this if the forecast steering comes to fruition. We could certainly use the rain.

[deltadog03]

I actually think this as an interesting life ahead and full of potential if it can develop and survive. GFS is likely too far East, but we shall see. The trof split coming down after this weeks Trof in the EAST will be a huge player in where this goes ***If*** it develops and can survive track into the Bahamas.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS running

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF run. We lost some images in the Danny thread so I wanted to make sure and copy HWRF runs for reference later.

[SouthFLTropics]

Is that Danny's vort south of Hispaniola?

[YoshiMike]

Models are all over the place give it a couple more days

Lets hope the models move it away from people as it gets closer! Agreed its too soon to tell. I hope it doesn't come near me in Hattiesburg.

[tolakram]

Back to the 18Z GFS

[Dean4Storms]

I would give the ECM and even the GFS more weight this far out than the HWRF especially when the two major globals have roughly the same idea.

[SouthFLTropics]

North of PR at 78 hours on the GFS with a big ridge to the north.

SFT

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks more organized on this run than on the 12z...IMHO

[Dean4Storms]

@102 hr just a TW just north of Hispaniola!