ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

GFS doesn't do much again.

[floridasun78]

hwrf -p show strong high above maybe hurr Erika as get close to bahamas

[Dean4Storms]

And with that ridge to the north at 108 hr it has no choice but head for the Gulf again.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ridge looks pretty strong on the GFS as well but the GFS doesn't share the HWRF's enthusiasm for Erika.

SFT

[PTrackerLA]

I've been burned so many times over the years going against the globals. Proceed with caution!

[SouthFLTropics]

Big difference between the HWRF and the GFS is that the GFS seems a good bit faster than the HWRF. GFS has system north of eastern Cuba by 108 hours whereas the HWRF has it north of DR at 120 hours.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

I've been burned so many times over the years going against the globals. Proceed with caution!

Definitely the smart money is on the GFS and Euro but the HWRF did win some points with Danny in my opinion.

SFT

[tolakram]

[Bocadude85]

Big difference between the HWRF and the GFS is that the GFS seems a good bit faster than the HWRF. GFS has system north of eastern Cuba by 108 hours whereas the HWRF has it north of DR at 120 hours.

SFT

I was just about to point this out. The GFS has 98L hauling butt. No way it could develop moving the speed the GFS is forecasting.

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Look at that ridge!!! What a beast!!! That keeps up people in South Florida will have to keep

[floridasun78]

this one too show strong high to north of soon to be Erika i have same as post this other one show strong high to north

[tolakram]

I'll finish with that one. Vorticity into S FL, weak.

[BigB0882]

The only worrying thing is these models are showing this ridge at only about 5 days out. Plenty of room for error but this isn't a 10 day forecast.

[SouthFLTropics]

An important question to ask is whether or not the Euro and GFS are showing a weaker system due to interaction with the islands or is it more environment/shear related? GFS seems closer to the islands than the HWRF. Does anyone have a shear map for the 120 hour range?

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

The only worrying thing is these models are showing this ridge at only about 5 days out. Plenty of room for error but this isn't a 10 day forecast.

+1...I'll second that thought

[SouthFLTropics]

I'll finish with that one. Vorticity into S FL, weak.

Leave it to the Give Florida Something to show at least some kind of vorticity heading into the Homestead area...today being Andrew's anniversary and all.

SFT

[Dean4Storms]

An important question to ask is whether or not the Euro and GFS are showing a weaker system due to interaction with the islands or is it more environment/shear related? GFS seems closer to the islands than the HWRF. Does anyone have a shear map for the 120 hour range?

SFT

It's forward speed is all the shear it needs! The GFS has it moving between 20-30kts.

[SouthFLTropics]

An important question to ask is whether or not the Euro and GFS are showing a weaker system due to interaction with the islands or is it more environment/shear related? GFS seems closer to the islands than the HWRF. Does anyone have a shear map for the 120 hour range?

SFT

It's forward speed is all the shear it needs! The GFS has it moving between 20-30kts.

That is true...with the big ridge to its north the forward speed should be pretty quick, just like the GFS shows.

[BigB0882]

What is the shear forecast for the Gulf around the time it would be in that region, should the ridge get it there. I remember early in the season a lot of people said the best chance for a hurricane would be a homebrew along the Gulf or East coast because shear was just not favorable in the Caribbean or MDR. Is this thought still holding true, would a storm or even wave enter the Gulf and have good conditions or is shear high? It seems while watching Danny models that shear was high in Gulf in those runs, but I don't know if it was just for that small timeframe or if it is a trend of late.