ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Track into se bahamas as a tropical storm

You guessing?

Nope the 5-day track is available

[abajan]

NHC is upgrading. TS Erika on model guidance. Look for the first advisory shortly.

After all the comments about the circulation not being completely closed, I'll bet most of us didn't expect that!

[chaser1]

Huh??? They DID name it just now, after all? Um... never mind my rant above...

[SouthFLTropics]

60 knot is way to close to Cat 1 for my liking in that location. Given the split in models GFS/Euro vs. others I can see why they went middle of the road on intensity.

[floridasun78]

for now not hurr in bahamas

[AutoPenalti]

Well I did say it was going to become Erika by 11.

[Blown Away]

IMO 70 mph is a perfect start in the Bahamas b/c of the model spread... Enough to get the attention w/o freaking everybody out... Easy to go up or down from here...

[Hammy]

Well, I'm wrong yet again

I'm surprised they went with upgrading given the ASCAT but probably better safe than sorry in order to give the Lesser Antilles time to prepare.

[floridasun78]

so their wait for data come in from Buoy and ASCAT

[floridasun78]

so i was right their waited for data come in from Buoy and ASCAT 000
WTNT45 KNHC 250246
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015

Satellite imagery, buoy observations,

[blp]

Well this should open some eyes, not a hurricane yet but might change:

[GeneratorPower]

So the NHC is forecasting a tropical storm at 70mph in the Bahamas in 5 days, on a track towards Florida with low confidence in strength of the system. Interesting.

[Bocadude85]

Will be interesting to see how the forecast track changes in the coming days. Will the track eventually show a Florida landfall? Or will the track show a recurve? Interesting days ahead for sure.

[floridasun78]

Erika will be approaching an
upper-level low/trough that is forecast to be near Hispaniola, which
is expected to cause an increase in westerly wind shear. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the
next 48 hours, and is close to the SHIPS model and intensity
consensus. After that time, the intensity guidance diverges with
the statistical guidance and the HWRF bringing Erika to hurricane
strength. look what kill danny still their as Erika get closer to islands

[blp]

11pm NHC discussion. Interesting...

During the next couple of days, Erika will be moving through an
environment characterized by warm water, a moist air mass, and
generally low vertical wind shear. These factors should allow
strengthening. After 48 hours, Erika will be approaching an
upper-level low/trough that is forecast to be near Hispaniola, which
is expected to cause an increase in westerly wind shear. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the
next 48 hours, and is close to the SHIPS model and intensity
consensus. After that time, the intensity guidance diverges with
the statistical guidance and the HWRF bringing Erika to hurricane
strength. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GFS weaken the system in about
3 days, due to the increasing shear. The NHC intensity forecast is
between these scenarios and shows no change in strength after 48
hours. Due to the large spread in the intensity guidance, the
intensity forecast at days 3-5 is of low confidence.

[HurricaneBelle]

Yeah, the NHC's position on days 3-5 is basically ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[floridasun78]

if gust is here let know what people on islands say on tur about back to back ts watch

[AutoPenalti]

Yeah, the NHC's position on days 3-5 is basically ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Post of the night.

[NDG]

Lesson learned for those who were saying it did not have a closed circulation, sometimes ASCAT has a hard time depicting a west wind with a fast westward moving tropical cyclone, I have seen it all the time in the past.

[floridasun78]

Katrina was like that when was in Bahamas as 70mph storm turn into hurr at last min i remember eye passing over my place first time i been in eye of hurr i could see eye wall claim of eye