ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Kingarabian]

Super close call but the trough pulls it.

[CaliforniaResident]

The Euro just got REAL interesting

Will Florida's record setting hurricane-free streak finally come to an end?

[Brent]

Oh my

[Hammy]

Full resolution has a major just offshore at 192 hours

The HWRF may score yet again as well if this plays out.

[Brent]

Wow

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Super close call but the trough pulls it.

What trough check the heights on 0z posted 500mb EC models no indication of any trough.

Could be upper trough, we don't have access to the Euro's upper air data unfortunately.

Either way it seems to show a Cat 3/4 borderline off of the southeast by 240 hours (and this is a somewhat conservative model intensity-wise if you have an actual classified system that it's running on.)

[Brent]

[Brent]

[YoshiMike]

That's a very scary thing to process in my mind. I hope that this doesn't hurt anyone. Wow. I mean yeah its early in the games and models can be wrong but still, that's a little close for comfort.

[Brent]

[northjaxpro]

Wow, EURO showing a potential of Erika becoming a major hurricane just off the East Coast of Florida. My goodness, that is making me nervous that run. All of us here in Florida and the immediate SE U.S. coast really, really have to watch Erika very closely the next 5 -6 days!! Also the Eastern GOM is in play most definitely too!!

[YoshiMike]

Wow, EURO showing a potential of Erika becoming a major hurricane just off the East Coast of Florida. My goodness, that is making me nervous that run. All of us here in Florida and the immediate SE U.S. coast really, really have to watch Erika very closely the next 5 -6 days!! Also the Eastern GOM is in play most definitely too!!

Think I should be a little concerned too or am I too central into the gulf states? Hattiesburg Mississippi. About 70 miles (I think? About that) away from the gulf coast. (north) southeastern Mississippi kinda.

[Brent]

Models much more aggressive with a hurricane beyond day 3 now:

[northjaxpro]

Wow, EURO showing a potential of Erika becoming a major hurricane just off the East Coast of Florida. My goodness, that is making me nervous that run. All of us here in Florida and the immediate SE U.S. coast really, really have to watch Erika very closely the next 5 -6 days!! Also the Eastern GOM is in play most definitely too!!

Think I should be a little concerned too or am I too central into the gulf states? Hattiesburg Mississippi. About 70 miles (I think? About that) away from the gulf coast. (north) southeastern Mississippi kinda.

All I can say is just keep monitoring the situation like all the rest of us. The Eastern GOM is in play because the models up to this point have been showing significant ridging down into the SW Atlantic basin. It is possible the ridging may be strong enough to push Erika farther westward into the Eastern GOM, provided the cyclone develops maturely, like the EURO is showing. The details will sort itself out as time progresses, but needless to say, the latest EURO runs definitely are an eye opener for certain!!

It is going to be a very, very interesting the rest of this week I can assure of that.

[jlauderdal]

Wow, EURO showing a potential of Erika becoming a major hurricane just off the East Coast of Florida. My goodness, that is making me nervous that run. All of us here in Florida and the immediate SE U.S. coast really, really have to watch Erika very closely the next 5 -6 days!! Also the Eastern GOM is in play most definitely too!!

Think I should be a little concerned too or am I too central into the gulf states? Hattiesburg Mississippi. About 70 miles (I think? About that) away from the gulf coast. (north) southeastern Mississippi kinda.

model agreement on track is low down the road...going to have too wait until it settles out as usual..give it another day...models have a system to latch onto now and we will get recon soon..this isnt a slow moving danny thats for sure

[stormlover2013]

Will keep flip flopping, should be interesting

[gulf701]

As a comment to the Eastern Gulf of Mexico Erika reference, model trends (as with Danny) is what concerns me living in the FL Panhandle. It has been a very hot summer and the Gulf of Mexico SST are very warm with a good chance for deep water warming. I would be very concerned for any low pressure system to be in the GOM. I shudder at the energy that would be available if all the other development factors were favorable.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[Nimbus]

She looked elongated and barely closed off in the ASCAT last night.
The forward speed is forecast to slow north of the islands and that is where the models are forecasting development into a hurricane.

The ridge strength may be effected by outflow from Erika and rapid intensification might pump the ridge a little stronger.

With limited land interaction and less shear the reasoning and confidence in the forecast will be a little easier than it was with Danny.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well the 00z Euro and the new NHC track this morning is sure to get everyone's attention when they wake up!

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS keeps it week similar to the 00z GFS. But this time, it gets some of its vorticity into the Gulf before pulling back out to the NE over Florida.

So if you split this solution with the Euro, then it's NOT a comfortable track for our Florida folks.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.