ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Puerto Rico need rain that good

[tailgater]

Some showers for the V.I. and Puerto Rico from ex Danny. Time sensitive.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

The Shredder should finish off what vorticity he has left in the next 24 to 36 hours.

[xironman]

The vorticity shows up well in IR2 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/h5-mloop-ir2.html

[Alyono]

looks a LOT better than Erika

[Extratropical94]

I am wondering why the NHC forecasters don't list the remnants of Danny in their TWO and give the area a xy% chance of regeneration. Either they forgot about it, or they must be veery sure that he won't come back under all circumstances.

[xironman]

The old vort center finally got covered over by convection. Should implode though as we approach dmin. None of the models predict anything to happen to poor old danny boy, so I doubt the NHC is that concerned.

[Sanibel]

Probably because of the Hispaniola track.


Told you this would refire once it got its Caribbean legs.

[chaser1]

hmmmm??? You know what, if I were in Vegas right now I think i'd plunk down $10.00 on the 50 to 1 long-shot that it re-develops. Still has a vigorous circulation at some level which I believe might well track south of Hispanola (rather than directly over it); Beyond that point who knows where it might just pop up and under what conditions it might find itself

[xironman]

WRT Hispanola: Yeah it is an issue, but the old vort is very far south at the tip of the convention, and the trajectory is just N of W.

[Tireman4]

Hummmmm

[cycloneye]

Got a mention at 2 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms spreading over portions of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola are associated with the remnants of Danny. Strong
upper-level winds and the interaction with land are expected to
prevent regeneration of this system while it moves west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. However, locally heavy rains
associated with Danny's remnants could still occur over these
areas during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

[Sanibel]

Small burst near center.


Still headed to Hispaniola IMO.

[tailgater]

Yes He survive shear and dry stable air but those mountains will do him in, low level steering looks to take him on a more wnw then nw direction.

[xironman]

Actually the mountains make focus more energy back on the storm. Still tracking just north of west, the edge of the vort will hit land but that won't matter much. I think Cuba may finally do him in. I am not getting the strong upper level winds thing though, the are blowing from SE to NW so the shear is not so bad. There is some mid-level shear though. The old vort is right at the bottom of the dense cloud cover and would need to gain quite a bit of latitude to clip Hispaniola.

[Tireman4]

I would not go to sleep on Danny (ex). This might surprise....


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[Sanibel]

Just burst a tower.

[HurricaneBelle]

Danny is all but gone now, just a very weak wave over the Dominican.