ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

Saving some images of last nights Euro run.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

500MB. Keep in mind this is into fantasy range.

[SouthDadeFish]

It's pretty easy to see why the Euro stalls Erika east of FL... There is nowhere for it to go! That would be another forecasting nightmare... Plenty of time for a forecast to change though. This is definitely a storm worth keeping an eye on for those on the East Coast.

[BobHarlem]

Hmm Close enough to really get people moving and in the margin of error, that loop/stall the GFS and Euro show late in the model runs though is a bit alarming, to be sure. My personal nightmare was a major storm stalling out just over land. Shift the Euro a bit west and that could occur. Still hope climatology wins and just keeps it recurving. The Bahamas look like they do need to be worried, though. (NHC shows that)

[AutoPenalti]

I puked a little at NHC's track as I woke up. Erika may as well slam into SE Florida. We could use the rain though.

[tolakram]

The 6Z GFS solution is similar to yesterday but now better explains that odd vorticity moving up the coast. It has a track similar to the euro but takes a weak swirl inland, up the Florida coast, back off shore and then goes into lala land. Here's the part of the run with the vorticity on the Florida coast.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like on these EURO model runs, they show stalling Erika offshore about 150 miles east of Jacksonville on the end of the runs at 192 and 216 hours.

[deltadog03]

I honestly see nothing wrong with the EURO track. **as of now** I think that is more than possible. **IF** Erika can hold it together. I trust the euro much more than GFS for synoptic features.

[tolakram]

06Z GFS 500MB

[stormlover2013]

It's one run, will keep flipping, can trust any model past 6-7 days

[tolakram]

It's one run, will keep flipping, can trust any model past 6-7 days

We know, and you say that after every run.

[northjaxpro]

However, we are now within the 7 day period of how this situation will evolve. The models certainly can change, but now that we are inside of a week of Erika possibly threatening the Bahamas and the SE U.S. coast, I look for consistency from the models as to what they are displaying. So far, it appears ridging will be in place to possibly block Erika from going out to sea. We will see the next couple of days if EURO and GFS backs off from this, as well as bombing out Erika as EURO and HWRF are consistently indicating lately.

[Bocadude85]

If you compare the 6z GFS to the 0z Euro they really aren't all that different. The GFS has landfall and the Euro is about 50-75 miles offshore South Florida in the 144-168 hour time frame.

[Blown Away]

06Z GFS 500MB

Appears the 500MB has enough ridging through 168 hr's to prevent a recurve... Based on Erika's 5 day position, probably going to be hard not to CONUS landfall before ridging lifts... JMHO of course...

[tolakram]

06Z HWRF, similar to earlier runs

[tolakram]

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS 500MB

Appears the 500MB has enough ridging through 168 hr's to prevent a recurve... Based on Erika's 5 day position, probably going to be hard not to CONUS landfall before ridging lifts... JMHO of course...

Yeah, Blown Away I agree with this assessment. That 500 mb ridge looks rather strong through at least 120 hours and unfortunately, this is likely going to bring Erika to potential impact somewhere along the SE U.S. coast or possibly into the Eastern GOM if the ridge is strong enough to move it a bit farther west. The threat from Erika is beginning to loom increasingly as time progresses. I hope maybe conditions will keep her from strengthening into a major hurricane like the EURO is showing, but we just have to watch this extremely close in the days to come.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=211

Navgem 06 right over south florida

[Siker]

You can see an open door on that HWRF, but that's likely because of the low pressure system to the north. Not buying that because neither the GFS nor the Euro has it.