ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

11 AM Advisory holds it at 45 MPH they are waiting for recon. For these borderline systems, I take the view of what if it were still 98L, would people be calling for it to be upgraded? Probably, so it's still likely a minimal TS.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

One very small, but interesting piece of the 11am update to me was the fact that forward speed has slowed down. It may only be 1 mph, but it is a start. Speed kills, and if she is indeed starting to slow down, then this storm could definitely stay organized enough to slowly approach hurricane status down the road.

[Gustywind]

Still racing towards the west...


000
WTNT35 KNHC 251446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...ERIKA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[Extratropical94]

One very small, but interesting piece of the 11am update to me was the fact that forward speed has slowed down. It may only be 1 mph, but it is a start. Speed kills, and if she is indeed starting to slow down, then this storm could definitely stay organized enough to slowly approach hurricane status down the road.

Reminds me of a quote from Jeremy Clarkson (Top Gear): "Speed has never killed anyone. Suddenly becoming stationary, that's what gets you."
This obviously doesn't apply to tropical cyclones.

[Blown Away]

For all drinking the Erika hateraide... She is popping some new convection as I post... Still weak but popping...

[jlauderdal]

For all drinking the Erika hateraide... She is popping some new convection as I post... Still weak but popping...

27.0667° N, 80.1333° W

[Alyono]

well, I was wrong about this being a wave. ASCAT showed a closed circ

[Bocadude85]

For all drinking the Erika hateraide... She is popping some new convection as I post... Still weak but popping...

27.0667° N, 80.1333° W

One of these days were going to get hit.

[ConvergenceZone]

well, I was wrong about this being a wave. ASCAT showed a closed circ

I appreciate you stating that Alyono. I have nothing but respect for the Mets here.....Regardless she does look absolutely horrible right now......

[jlauderdal]

For all drinking the Erika hateraide... She is popping some new convection as I post... Still weak but popping...

27.0667° N, 80.1333° W

One of these days were going to get hit.

that is a certainty...i have been saying it for several years..one of these days the gfs is going to have sofla in its sites at 5-7 days and it will be right..its been a big drought for sure

[jlauderdal]

well, I was wrong about this being a wave. ASCAT showed a closed circ

we were posting the other day about about degeneration then regeneration.. we might get it on this one

[CaneCurious]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Erika looks to have already missed its forecast point to the south. Weaker=West

[NCSTORMMAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-vis-long.html
Erika looks to have already missed its forecast point to the south. Weaker=West

No it is right on top of it as a naked swirl. It is to the north of the new convection firing up.

[BigB0882]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-vis-long.html
Erika looks to have already missed its forecast point to the south. Weaker=West

This is my worry. This could end up quite a bit further west than forecast if it continues to struggle to organize. 24 hours of this could create a big difference down the road. Maybe a strong weakness would pick it up no matter what but it is also possible it could miss any weakness if it is too far south.

[Mouton]

Assuming this storm stays together, it looks to me as a florida bound storm....too much blocking to the north as pressure moves in over it. Has the look of Dora to me, a left turn jog mid peninsula as it could get pushed left abruptly due to relatively small size. The size also bothers me as it could become a redo of Andrew track, straight into MIA area, once it hits the gulf stream albeit probably not as potent a storm.

We should know more by tomorrow AM to see if the high is building to the west because if so once it gets past 70w intact and on a WNW track, all bets are off for a recurve IMO.

This is purely my uneducated assessment. Refer to the experts and especially the NHC for any informed information regarding this or any other storm.

[ronjon]

Think the bottom line is these systems will continue to struggle in this environment - when both GFS and ECM global models didn't show development last night, that was a big clue that this system would struggle. Now conditions may change down the road, say in the Bahamas or SE GOM, but at this point think it'll be a sheared mess till then. Of course, everytime I declare how I think its going to happen, nature turns that statement upside down.

[alienstorm]

Unless it is able to pull up the moisture to its south and wrap it up dont see this doing much. The LLC is north of the convention and it appears that it is not very vigorous, now satellite can say one thing and when the recon gets out there it may show something different.

So we will have a better idea come this afternoon but at this point I say it is barely a TS if at all.

[hohnywx]

Think the bottom line is these systems will continue to struggle in this environment - when both GFS and ECM global models didn't show development last night, that was a big clue that this system would struggle. Now conditions may change down the road, say in the Bahamas or SE GOM, but at this point think it'll be a sheared mess till then. Of course, everytime I declare how I think its going to happen, nature turns that statement upside down.

What are you talking about? The ECM showed a major hurricane last night.

[Weatherlover12]

It's so mind boggling how everyone begged the system to be named yesterday & then now they want it to be a wave.. Whatever happened to the wait and see method? Storms often vary in intensity all the time. Yes, it doesn't look good but it doesn't mean we write it off. They're are people that come on to this blog to see what's happening and and we don't need to send false alarms. Let's WAIT and SEE before we make bold predictions.
Have a great day everyone!

[chaser1]

Think the bottom line is these systems will continue to struggle in this environment - when both GFS and ECM global models didn't show development last night, that was a big clue that this system would struggle. Now conditions may change down the road, say in the Bahamas or SE GOM, but at this point think it'll be a sheared mess till then. Of course, everytime I declare how I think its going to happen, nature turns that statement upside down.

What are you talking about? The ECM showed a major hurricane last night.

Yes it did, but could change. Things remain very variable still.