ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

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Aug 25, 2015; 11:30 AM ET In the wake of Danny, Erika has gained intensity and will be taking a similar path as Danny did.

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail ... Start=true

[chaser1]

One think I will say, I'm certainly not reserving my table at Aruba's by the pier in Ft. Lauderdale to watch the deteriorating weather conditions until Erika decides to shake Uncle SAL as her companion (just don't like his dusty disposition, LOL)

huh.. I've done that before.. it's quite fun in a tropical storm.. the Mai Thais and Hurricane cocktails seem to taste better!

Great minds think alike! Hey, either way... with or without hurricane conditions, i'm always up for one of their giant Mai Thais (or was that a Margarita LOL?); I'm sure we could twist jlauderdal's arm as well (besides, preparation is the key and a properly orchestrated hurricane event among storm enthusiasts can never be practiced enough

[wxman57]

FYI, the 00Z ECMWF's forecast of Erika was for it to be near 30.6N/77.2W at day 10 (00Z Sept. 4th) with a pressure of 940mb. It's 00Z track was very much like Floyd's (1999) but it turns Erika NE before reaching the Carolinas.

[CourierPR]

Erika looks to be building convection again.

[Blown Away]

FYI, the 00Z ECMWF's forecast of Erika was for it to be near 30.6N/77.2W at day 10 (00Z Sept. 4th) with a pressure of 940mb. It's 00Z track was very much like Floyd's (1999) but it turns Erika NE before reaching the Carolinas.

Getting to that 30N mark after painfully crawling north just offshore from Florida for days... The NHC has Erika moving within a few hundred miles of SFL in just 5 days...

[wxman57]

Erika looks to be building convection again.

Note that Erika's circulation center is about 30 miles north of that convection, and the circulation looks a tad less "tight" than it was a few hours ago. Recon scheduled to depart in 30 minutes.

[Blown Away]

Erika looks to be building convection again.

Note that Erika's circulation center is about 30 miles north of that convection, and the circulation looks a tad less "tight" than it was a few hours ago. Recon scheduled to depart in 30 minutes.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Erika looks to be building convection again.

Note that Erika's circulation center is about 30 miles north of that convection, and the circulation looks a tad less "tight" than it was a few hours ago. Recon scheduled to depart in 30 minutes.

http://i58.tinypic.com/2qmgnlf.gif

I actually believe that Erika is pulling the convection toward herself. Whether that lasts is another story.

[Blown Away]

Looks just N of W...

[Siker]

Convection continues to build in the latest frame; still not over the center completely.

[FireRat]

IMO it's too early to tell what will happen with Erika, lets see what happens tonight when convection becomes likelier before dawn, and see if Erika maintains itself or strengthens further. She needs to slow down some to strengthen as well, she is moving too fast and 'adding shear' to herself that way.

We have very hot sea surface temps all around South Florida, SE Gulf and the Bahamas (high 80s - 90), if something, be it Erika or another storm this year, gets into this area, with low shear in place, there could be a bomb! So definitely need to watch something moving in this general direction. For now, lets see how Erika does with the current obstacles and islands that lie in its path and might disrupt this system.

[cycloneye]

Still booking north of due west.

[OuterBanker]

Just checking in. Really busy today. Briefly glanced at tv this morning and saw the tpc track. Rather interesting to say the least. What a change from yesterday. What I find interesting is the big swing from yesterday to today in the Euro. The Euro is downright scary, but Wxman said that it takes it ots before hitting Carolinas. A stall just off the se coast could be one of the worse cases even if it doesn't make landfall. Beach erosion and coastal flooding a real concern if that happens. JB's video mentioned Irene (she really caused a lot of damage here). Certainly looks sickly but a vigorous llc is quite evident. One more personal observation. Although the Euro has had a wild swing and the GFS has been out to lunch all season, the HWRF has been consistent. It really hasn't changed much from yesterday other that further north and west which would be natural. It also expanded the wind field too. Both HWRF and Euro are rather concerning.

[cycloneye]

FYI=Air Force plane has departed towards Erika.

[LarryWx]

Regarding the 0Z Euro showing a major at day 10, I'm taking it with a humongous grain as opposed to being concerned. Besides it being day 10 (almost out in fantasyland..day 10 on an operational is so unreliable..even day 7 is quite unrelaible.), I found out after studying the Euro a few years back that it has a tendency of overintensifying storms above 25N. Do I think this will be anywhere close to a 940 mb storm at 30N? No I don't think it will.

[gatorcane]

Based on the model trends, we could see the NHC track get nudged west at the next advisory today. A lot depends on the 12Z Euro. The UKMET and NAVGEM 12Z runs are both showing an intense hurricane just barely off the SE Coast of Florida with the UKMET shifting quite a bit west from its 00Z run

[Weatherboy1]

Erika looks to be building convection again.

Like in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. She's saying: "I'm not dead yet!" LOL

[AdamFirst]

Based on the model trends, we could see the NHC track get nudged west at the next advisory today. A lot depends on the 12Z Euro. The UKMET and NAVGEM 12Z runs are both showing an intense hurricane just barely off the SE Coast of Florida with the UKMET shifting quite a bit west from its 00Z run

As well as the GFS continuing to show the vorticity of the system going into SE Florida. That has remained consistent within the last few runs, even if intensity is not all there.

[SouthFLTropics]

Regarding the 0Z Euro showing a major at day 10, I'm taking it with a humongous grain as opposed to being concerned. Besides it being day 10 (almost out in fantasyland..day 10 on an operational is so unreliable..even day 7 is quite unrelaible.), I found out after studying the Euro a few years back that it has a tendency of overintensifying storms above 25N. Do I think this will be anywhere close to a 940 mb storm at 30N? No I don't think it will.

Your point is well taken but it should be noted that the 00z Euro starts to show the strengthening of Erika in the 4-7 day range...With that said, it was just one run. Let's see what the 12z shows and then tonight's 00z. If we start to see consistency on these runs then I think we have a definite concern.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on the model trends, we could see the NHC track get nudged west at the next advisory today. A lot depends on the 12Z Euro. The UKMET and NAVGEM 12Z runs are both showing an intense hurricane just barely off the SE Coast of Florida with the UKMET shifting quite a bit west from its 00Z run

As well as the GFS continuing to show the vorticity of the system going into SE Florida. That has remained consistent within the last few runs, even if intensity is not all there.

That was a really big west shift by the UKMET. The GFS and Euro tracks have been pretty consistent so far. The intensity I think is going to be the big question. Do we get a big rain maker or do we get blown away. As consistent as the Euro and GFS have been in bringing this to our doorstep, IMHO we get at least something out of this.

SFT