ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[NCSTORMMAN]

If this storm makes it to the Bahamas I believe 940 mb or lower is quite possible given the environment and warm VERY warm SSTs. Do I believe it makes it there? Depends on what it looks like by tomorrow. It needs to be better organized then where it is now. Models are picking up on the scenario of what happens if it makes it to the Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

I can say I don't like that at all... I've almost forgotten how painful it is to put up the shutters buried in the back of my shed...

[Bocadude85]

HWRF has this hitting Puerto Rico. Much weaker then the 6z run. Perhaps the DR is next we shall see.

[Steve]

So GFS basically opens up some ventilation down off the GA coast where a piece (?) of Erika consolidates, sort of drifts back SE and then gets caught up in a front. Plausible? Probably. Likely? Who knows that far out????

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM 168 hours. Good god that is a beast. It's very similar to the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET (UKMET through 144 hours) so it's not alone on this one.

[PTrackerLA]

Amazing how close that NAVGEM run gets to Florida but then starts moving NE from there.

[SouthFLTropics]

:uarrow:
I can say I don't like that at all... I've almost forgotten how painful it is to put up the shutters buried in the back of my shed...

10 years is a long time...Might want to make sure the wing nuts and bolts aren't rusted by now. I'll be checking mine out no later than Thursday if the trend continues. We've been through this before...It's like riding a bike...you never forget.

SFT

[Alyono]

Canadian model well into the Gulf. Doesn't intensify until it gets near the Panhandle. Goes over Hispañiola

[Bocadude85]

Amazing how close that NAVGEM run gets to Florida but then starts moving NE from there.

Some of these model runs sort of remind me of the Hurricane Frances model runs when she was still east of the leewards.

[SouthFLTropics]

The models are lighting us up like a Christmas tree. Also, look at the hooks at the end of the ensembles. Looks like a trap setting up.



SFT

[BigB0882]

Canadian model well into the Gulf. Doesn't intensify until it gets near the Panhandle. Goes over Hispañiola

I might would find this interesting if it were any model other than the Canadian.

[SouthFLTropics]

Amazing how close that NAVGEM run gets to Florida but then starts moving NE from there.

Say it with me magical turning. We have a shield on us here in the US.

Put the kool aid down, take off the foil hat, and don't believe everything Dynomat is selling...LOL

SFT

[NCSTORMMAN]

Amazing how close that NAVGEM run gets to Florida but then starts moving NE from there.

Say it with me magical turning. We have a shield on us here in the US.

Put the kool aid down, take off the foil hat, and don't believe everything Dynomat is selling...LOL

SFT

lol no tinfoil hat just cold hard ten years of facts.

[Evil Jeremy]

lol no tinfoil hat just cold hard ten years of facts.

Welcome to "What Storm Are We Tracking Anyway?" where anything can happen and history isn't a garuntee.

[WeatherEmperor]

Whats happening with the Hwrf? Can somebody post the latest images?

[Siker]

Whats happening with the Hwrf? Can somebody post the latest images?

It's a lot weaker and further south so far. Shear and land interaction with PR hurt.

[Bocadude85]

Ah the usual bashing for the guy predicting the models will eventually be OTS with this one. Is this attack NCSTORMMAN for having an opinion on the models or is this supposed to be about the models themselves? Sure are a lot of personal attacks from people so sure that the models are right like they have been all the time. SARCASM.

You are not posting anything to back up your claims. Just because the last few years had storms recurve does not mean every storm will go out to sea. If he majority of the models start showing out to sea then we will agree with you.

[Evil Jeremy]

We have been here long enough to know there are no garuntees in the tropics, so your saying the magical shield recurve is a given is unwise and unhelpful

[Steve]

Nevermind

[NCSTORMMAN]

We have been here long enough to know there are no garuntees in the tropics, so your saying the magical shield recurve is a given is unwise and unhelpful

It has happened for the last 10 years. I like my chances. Either that or a weak storm and further west. Using models as proof is about as foolish as me going on a limb with what has happened the past 10 years.