ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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Weatherboy1
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#481 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:Based on the model trends, we could see the NHC track get nudged west at the next advisory today. A lot depends on the 12Z Euro. The UKMET and NAVGEM 12Z runs are both showing an intense hurricane just barely off the SE Coast of Florida with the UKMET shifting quite a bit west from its 00Z run


For sure. But the big question is, will she survive that long? Been struggling last several hours and unless convection gets back over the center by tonight, I don't know if she can avoid the same fate as Danny, you know? We'll see...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#482 Postby Siker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:20 pm

Convection continues to build and reach for the circulation to the north:

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#483 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:24 pm

Convection is still increasing.
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#484 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:41 pm

Convection is getting closer to the LLC every IR frame and it is blowing up big time right now. We may have liftoff.

SFT
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#485 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:45 pm

If you look at this loop, there was a center just off to the wnw of the main convection that tucked directly under the main convection right as it was blowing up. I think that might end up being the main center

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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#486 Postby Dave C » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:01 pm

The outflow really seems to hit a wall about 5 deg to the west of Erika, that seems to be the edge of much drier air.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#487 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:11 pm

Image
Still building convection to the south of the LLC.
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Re:

#488 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:13 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:If you look at this loop, there was a center just off to the wnw of the main convection that tucked directly under the main convection right as it was blowing up. I think that might end up being the main center

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12


Very likely due the convective blowup, it's looking more closed today based on a very close look at cloud motion between the beginning vs the end of the loop. Unfortunately the buoys appear to have stopped reporting (or aren't showing up on this loop at least) though we'll have the plane in there within the next few hours.

Image
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#489 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:19 pm

Racing fast and furious on a westerly motion...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 251730
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 51.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#490 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:29 pm

i watching webcam from St. Croix. Virgin Islands to see weather is here link http://www.earthcam.com/usa/virginislan ... stcroix_hd
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#491 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:33 pm

floridasun78 wrote:i watching webcam from St. Croix. Virgin Islands to see weather is here link http://www.earthcam.com/usa/virginislan ... stcroix_hd

ok, great :) But don't forget to visit our tent :rarrow: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&start=0
You will have numerous links to Watch many webcam of the Lesser Antilles :)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#492 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:43 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 05, 2015082518, , BEST, 0, 153N, 519W, 40, 1003, TS
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#493 Postby HurriGuy » Tue Aug 25, 2015 1:56 pm

Finally some convection popping over the llc
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#494 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:15 pm

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-53&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#495 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:19 pm

The center is still north of the convection, nearly at 16N now.
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#496 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:22 pm

Erika isn't slowing down. Any mets can shine light on what's causing such a pacey forward speed?
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#497 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:26 pm

aircraft data shows that the circulation is barely closed. Only 3 kts of west wind
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#498 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:26 pm

Recon confirms circulation is closed.
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Re:

#499 Postby wxsouth » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:27 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Erika isn't slowing down. Any mets can shine light on what's causing such a pacey forward speed?



40 knot low-level jet (700mb) was sampled by dropsondes just to the north. Storm is embedded in this flow.
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Re:

#500 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 25, 2015 2:27 pm

Alyono wrote:aircraft data shows that the circulation is barely closed. Only 3 kts of west wind



And appears to be moving NW!!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL052015&starting_image=2015AL05_1KMSRVIS_201508251145.GIF
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