ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[alienstorm]

I believe if you look closely at the satellite loop there may be two main centers one on the north side and another a little further south. So it may be very well trying to see which center becomes dominant and that may also be why the models are having a difficult time. Recon should give us a better handle on this in the next hour or so.

[cycloneye]

Pressure is higher that the 1003 mbs of advisory.Center closed.

[tropicwatch]

Found the west winds around 15.5N.

[floridasun78]

ok i talk to nhc i have connect with them their told me this still forecast to be hurr by sat shear forcast to get less what hurr specialist told me and do see enter bahamas their need look at their hurr supply i ask about what rec report to them he told plane now going center

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 25m25 minutes ago  State College, PA
My bullishness on Erika in 5-10 days is not based on any 1 model, but pattern, time of year, and nature of this kind of season

[Alyono]

most convection has dissipated. Mainly left with cirrus

circ barely present based upon recon. It sure looks good. Perhaps there is a well defined broader circ as the inflow moving west to east appears better established today.

However, there is a good reason why globals insist this will become a wave. Still, look for regeneration. Conditions look too favorable for this to not redevelop

[Dean4Storms]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 25m25 minutes ago  State College, PA
My bullishness on Erika in 5-10 days is not based on any 1 model, but pattern, time of year, and nature of this kind of season

Think the models might get better once the Jet Samplings get thrown into them.

[JPmia]

ok i talk to nhc i have connect with them their told me this still forecast to be hurr by sat shear forcast to get less what hurr specialist told me and do see enter bahamas their need look at their hurr supply i ask about what rec report to them he told plane now going center

Are you saying the Hurricane Specialist suggests the Bahamians or the Floridians get their supplies in order?

[Steve H.]

Yea, it looked for a moment like Siamese twins....or is she giving birth?

[Hurricaneman]

ok i talk to nhc i have connect with them their told me this still forecast to be hurr by sat shear forcast to get less what hurr specialist told me and do see enter bahamas their need look at their hurr supply i ask about what rec report to them he told plane now going center

You need to prove this as I think its still too early to know the exact track and intensity but I do predict a 90mph hurricane of the Florida coast this weekend or early next week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricaneman]

Based on recon on the next advisory I wouldn't change a thing but the coordinates

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[psyclone]

My non scientific method to diagnose the health of a storm is to compare the pages in the model thread (fantasy world) with the discussion thread.. when fantasy pages exceed reality pages you can be virtually certain the system is not a looker...90% accuracy.

[floridasun78]

ok i talk to nhc i have connect with them their told me this still forecast to be hurr by sat shear forcast to get less what hurr specialist told me and do see enter bahamas their need look at their hurr supply i ask about what rec report to them he told plane now going center

Are you saying the Hurricane Specialist suggests the Bahamians or the Floridians get their supplies in order?

for now bahamas

[Steve H.]

Interesting hypothesis. More than likely accurate. However Erika is looking a lot better at this hour IMHO. Might be a looker in the coming days.

[boca]

I agree about Erika looking better and I'm keeping my eye on ex Danny too.

[PTrackerLA]

And now we wait for the 5pm track. I don't envy the NHC position at this point.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the track will nudge a hair southwest due to the Euro and GFS from 12z. The intensity though is a whole different ballgame. That is the tricky part. With the ridge the Euro and GFS are showing I don't see anyway that FL doesn't get something from this. The big question is what???

SFT

[floridasun78]

I agree about Erika looking better and I'm keeping my eye on ex Danny too.

i think danny done i dont see reforming

[Tireman4]

I agree about Erika looking better and I'm keeping my eye on ex Danny too.

i think danny done i dont see reforming

I would not be too sure about that. Remember what Dr. Neil Frank has said over and over, until the last cloud dissipates, it is not over. Never let your guard down.


he posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bocadude85]

I think the track will nudge a hair southwest due to the Euro and GFS from 12z. The intensity though is a whole different ballgame. That is the tricky part. With the ridge the Euro and GFS are showing I don't see anyway that FL doesn't get something from this. The big question is what???

SFT

The TVCN is over Andros Island now and the NHC seems to follow it closely. So I would guess a Southwest adjustment also.