ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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Weatherboy1
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#521 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:37 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:I think the track will nudge a hair southwest due to the Euro and GFS from 12z. The intensity though is a whole different ballgame. That is the tricky part. With the ridge the Euro and GFS are showing I don't see anyway that FL doesn't get something from this. The big question is what???

SFT


The TVCN is over Andros Island now and the NHC seems to follow it closely. So I would guess a Southwest adjustment also.


Intensity is such a tough call here. You have models that are forecasting a Cat 3 hurricane ... and you have models that are forecasting Erikia to degenerate to a wave. Meanwhile, given forward speed and the shift west in models, you can bet the "cone of death" will be kissing or over a portion of Florida as of 5 p.m. That, in turn, means media hype is about to shift into overdrive. LOL. Don't envy the NHC here, because this could get a lot stronger and pose a real threat or it could fall apart. Tough couple of days for sure.

Just the opinion of a semi-educate amateur. Always listen to the experts!
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#522 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:45 pm

I don't know. Looks to me that the the cdo is south and east of the llc. To me the center seems to be right on target. Lots more convection that 11am, was ready to call it. But, someone hit her with the paddles.
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#523 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:52 pm

Let the SFL media hype machine commence: :eek:

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#524 Postby MGC » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:52 pm

Is that Erika???????.....MGC
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#525 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:54 pm

Based on the SFMR winds, I see no reason to change the current intensity.
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#526 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:54 pm

Ahahahahahaa I'm laughing so hard.

*proceeds quietly to boarding up*
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#527 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:54 pm

Kind of surprised they lowered the winds to 40.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#528 Postby sfwx » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:54 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#529 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:55 pm

I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...
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Re:

#530 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on the SFMR winds, I see no reason to change the current intensity.


In most cases, the SFMR (surface) winds were a good bit higher than FL winds. Much of that was due to squalls affecting the signal. And remember, those SFMR winds are not 1 minute average winds, they're basically gusts (10 sec). I think 35kts looks good (at most).
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#531 Postby bahamaswx » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:57 pm

Should I start planning my hurricane party now?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#532 Postby JPmia » Tue Aug 25, 2015 3:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...


and that sums up the last 27 pages well.. it could be a cool tropical breeze with occasional showers OR a raging Cat 2/3. I for one do not want to be the guy who is left with one can of tuna and a bottle of water wondering why I didn't stop by the store a few days earlier.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#533 Postby tatertawt24 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:01 pm

It's kind of sad how upset I am that I no longer have The Weather Channel, in case Ericka actually does strike somewhere in the US. :lol: I know I can watch it online, but it's just not the same as having it on my TV in the background in my room, like the good ol' days in 2008. <3
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#534 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:04 pm

Showing good signs of development now IMO. Would opt for higher windspeeds at end of run.



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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#535 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:05 pm

If the 12z Euro showed something more than a TS, that 5 day intensity would have been much higher IMO.
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#536 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm

NWS out of New Orleans is keeping an eye on Erika.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LONG TERM...
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NORMAL SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS. WITH THE
MOISTURE INCREASE WE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICS AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA. 13/MH
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#537 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm

Warning..warning Will Robinson...S Florida now in the 5 day NHC cone..LOL! Watch store shelves be completely picked over now.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#538 Postby fci » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm pretty sure Erika's winds will be somewhere between 15kts and 90kts when it reaches near S. Florida. I hope to narrow that down in the coming days...


Which is why we love wxman here on S2K!!! :lol:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#539 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:06 pm

sfwx wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES...

...UNCERTAIN FORECAST SUN-TUE HINGES ON EVOLUTION OF T.S. "ERIKA"...

WE`RE STILL IN THE DAY 5+ TIME RANGE...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE QUITE LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGER H50 RIDGE JUST TO OUR
EAST INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO ECFL DURING THE SUN-MON TIME FRAME SUCH
THAT IMPACTS OF SOME SORT WILL BE FELT LOCALLY.

FORECAST POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND...WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE ONSHORE FLOW...POSSIBLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR
THE COAST.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES CONCERNING
"ERIKA" FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH


You're taking your chances if you listen to that guy.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#540 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 4:08 pm

Blown Away wrote:If the 12z Euro showed something more than a TS, that 5 day intensity would have been much higher IMO.


Max Mayfield said on channel 10 news that the reason the euro doesn't develop Erika is because it forecast her to move over Hispanola.
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