ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

I seriously feel like the HWRF just had a lucky guess with Danny. IMHO this will not amount to much more than what it currently is.

HWRF has this unorganized until north of PR, which looks fairly realistic. I think this storm will decide if we can trust it or not.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I seriously feel like the HWRF just had a lucky guess with Danny. IMHO this will not amount to much more than what it currently is.

HWRF has this unorganized until north of PR, which looks fairly realistic. I think this storm will decide if we can trust it or not.

I think we can throw out the GFS and 18Z models until new data is put into the models and ran tonight.

[tolakram]

So the vorticity is improving over south Florida. In my complete amateur opinion this seems to be a sign that if the storm is offshore it may indeed have a chance to wind up.

[TheStormExpert]

I seriously feel like the HWRF just had a lucky guess with Danny. IMHO this will not amount to much more than what it currently is.

HWRF has this unorganized until north of PR, which looks fairly realistic. I think this storm will decide if we can trust it or not.

True. How well has the HWRF performed this season thus far? Just curious.

[WeatherEmperor]

I seriously feel like the HWRF just had a lucky guess with Danny. IMHO this will not amount to much more than what it currently is.

HWRF has this unorganized until north of PR, which looks fairly realistic. I think this storm will decide if we can trust it or not.

I agree with this. I think once it gets to the Bahamas region will determine if it stays week or grows into a hurricane.


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[SouthFLTropics]

I seriously feel like the HWRF just had a lucky guess with Danny. IMHO this will not amount to much more than what it currently is.

HWRF has this unorganized until north of PR, which looks fairly realistic. I think this storm will decide if we can trust it or not.

I would agree...If the HWRF scores with two good intensity forecast in a row, first Danny and now Erika, it will move up in rank in my book. If it bombs then perhaps we will chalk Danny up as a fluke. Didn't the HWRF get a decent upgrade over the Winter???

SFT

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Both the Euro and GFS solutions have the storms trekking awfully close to the Greater Antilles. I have to wonder if the vorticity was further North on those runs if the intensity outcome would be much different.

SFT

[tolakram]

Back offshore west coast of FL.

[tolakram]

See the vorticity echo in the Bahamas now. GFS might be having some issues here.

[SouthFLTropics]

From hour 150 to 192 that vort camps off of Tampa. Those folks don't need anymore rain over there.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

See the vorticity echo in the Bahamas now. GFS might be having some issues here.

Twins??? Erika and Fred???

[NCSTORMMAN]

See the vorticity echo in the Bahamas now. GFS might be having some issues here.

GFS has been having problems. I would say trust Euro and other models for tropics this season. Just my 2 cents and it seems GFS has been off a little with split vorticies and all that.

[jlauderdal]

Where did Florida disappear to?

12Z GFS Ensembles:

Right where we want to be this far out in time for a miss

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[Hurricaneman]

See the vorticity echo in the Bahamas now. GFS might be having some issues here.

The thing is to a lesser extent the Euro seems to do something similar so we may have either a split of the surface and mid level centers or these are trash runs we'll find out in a few days

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Looking at Weatherbell the GFS continues to organize the west coast blob through 222 hours. Kind of a silly run, but does the big picture tell us anything?

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at Weatherbell the GFS continues to organize the west coast blob through 222 hours. Kind of a silly run, but does the big picture tell us anything?

Big picture tells us that whatever Erika turns out to be is continuing to be shown headed in South Florida's direction.

SFT

[tolakram]