ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#561 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:20 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#562 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:23 pm

It looks like 15kts of shear and dry air are the problem for Erika at the moment, should have a simikar appearance until about 72hrs but from there its a complete guess

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#563 Postby abajan » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:24 pm

Brent wrote:Hurricane in the Bahamas:

[ img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0515W5_NL+gif/083703W5_NL_sm.gif[/img]
In less than a week that post will make no sense. Why? Because the image isn't a saved one!
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TheStormExpert

#564 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:30 pm

Erika would need to start gaining latitude very very soon or else the GFS/Euro will more than likely verify.
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#565 Postby Mouton » Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:53 pm

While the storm has a so so look about it, the last pressure reading I saw was 999.
The high to the north is going to keep this storm trending south of any NW turn IMO. Whether it brushes by Hispanola or hits it square on will have a significant effect on whether the storm survives. IMO, over the next two days it will have significant shear and is headed into a less than moist area. I think we want to wait till Friday as I believe this has a 50-50 chance of fizzling out especially if it hits that island dead on. Lastly if it does catch fire and head north, there is a pretty significant early season front making its way east. At a higher latitude, it should pick this up and take it OTS IMO.

This is in my uneducated opinion. For any official and probably accurate information, rely upon the experts and especially the NHC, not me.
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#566 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:09 pm

their way i look at it wait seer what happen next few day speicality for us in fl and east coast
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TheStormExpert

#567 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:22 pm

@TropicalTidbits: Tuesday video discussion on Tropical Storm #Erika: http://t.co/vrty9pHQQI
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#568 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:24 pm

Erika is going to have to get vertically stacked before she can do anything...
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#569 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:53 pm

The mid level circulation is a good bit SW of the surface Low and circulation and looking at models it only gets worse as it approaches the northern islands.
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Re:

#570 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:@TropicalTidbits: Tuesday video discussion on Tropical Storm #Erika: http://t.co/vrty9pHQQI


I HIGHLY recommend this video. Cowan does an excellent job of laying out all the potential possibilities for Erica as we head towards the weekend. This is great for those new to watching the tropics.
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#571 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:16 pm

Again racing west faster than speedy gonzalez without any brakes... :double:


000
WTNT35 KNHC 252336
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED...



SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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#572 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:19 pm

Best Track.

AL, 05, 2015082600, , BEST, 0, 158N, 536W, 35, 1006, TS,
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#573 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:20 pm

It could be me but to me it looks like the MLC is coming closer to the LLC\

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Re:

#574 Postby NCSTORMMAN » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:20 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:It could be me but to me it looks like the MLC is coming closer to the LLC\

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I think they are stacking as we speak or at least trying to. Just my opinion though.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#575 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:26 pm

Latest floater with tracks and fixes.
Image
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TheStormExpert

#576 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:27 pm

When will Erika make the expected WNW turn?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#577 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:28 pm

CIMSS Shear Analysis

Image
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Re:

#578 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:35 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:When will Erika make the expected WNW turn?


Over the next 48h, so let's wait and see, but the more west it goes the more menacing he is for the Leewards...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
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#579 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:37 pm

already is moving wnw
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#580 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:40 pm

Andrew, Floyd, and Fredric are current analogs for Erika... Each covers the possible tracks... Fred over the big islands weak and emerges into EGOM... Floyd, makes last second turn to miss SFL and into NC... Andrew, well let's just hope that doesn't happen...
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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