ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It looks like 15kts of shear and dry air are the problem for Erika at the moment, should have a simikar appearance until about 72hrs but from there its a complete guess
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
In less than a week that post will make no sense. Why? Because the image isn't a saved one!Brent wrote:Hurricane in the Bahamas:
[ img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0515W5_NL+gif/083703W5_NL_sm.gif[/img]
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While the storm has a so so look about it, the last pressure reading I saw was 999.
The high to the north is going to keep this storm trending south of any NW turn IMO. Whether it brushes by Hispanola or hits it square on will have a significant effect on whether the storm survives. IMO, over the next two days it will have significant shear and is headed into a less than moist area. I think we want to wait till Friday as I believe this has a 50-50 chance of fizzling out especially if it hits that island dead on. Lastly if it does catch fire and head north, there is a pretty significant early season front making its way east. At a higher latitude, it should pick this up and take it OTS IMO.
This is in my uneducated opinion. For any official and probably accurate information, rely upon the experts and especially the NHC, not me.
The high to the north is going to keep this storm trending south of any NW turn IMO. Whether it brushes by Hispanola or hits it square on will have a significant effect on whether the storm survives. IMO, over the next two days it will have significant shear and is headed into a less than moist area. I think we want to wait till Friday as I believe this has a 50-50 chance of fizzling out especially if it hits that island dead on. Lastly if it does catch fire and head north, there is a pretty significant early season front making its way east. At a higher latitude, it should pick this up and take it OTS IMO.
This is in my uneducated opinion. For any official and probably accurate information, rely upon the experts and especially the NHC, not me.
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Erika is going to have to get vertically stacked before she can do anything...
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- JtSmarts
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Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:@TropicalTidbits: Tuesday video discussion on Tropical Storm #Erika: http://t.co/vrty9pHQQI
I HIGHLY recommend this video. Cowan does an excellent job of laying out all the potential possibilities for Erica as we head towards the weekend. This is great for those new to watching the tropics.
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- Gustywind
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Again racing west faster than speedy gonzalez without any brakes...
000
WTNT35 KNHC 252336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila

000
WTNT35 KNHC 252336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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- Hurricaneman
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It could be me but to me it looks like the MLC is coming closer to the LLC\
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Re:
Hurricaneman wrote:It could be me but to me it looks like the MLC is coming closer to the LLC\
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I think they are stacking as we speak or at least trying to. Just my opinion though.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Latest floater with tracks and fixes.


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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
CIMSS Shear Analysis


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- Gustywind
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Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:When will Erika make the expected WNW turn?
Over the next 48h, so let's wait and see, but the more west it goes the more menacing he is for the Leewards...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Andrew, Floyd, and Fredric are current analogs for Erika... Each covers the possible tracks... Fred over the big islands weak and emerges into EGOM... Floyd, makes last second turn to miss SFL and into NC... Andrew, well let's just hope that doesn't happen...
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Aug 25, 2015 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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